ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, LIGHTHOUSE SOUND

FIRST RACE

AXIAL LOAD doesn’t offer a lot of pedigree power, as the first starter from the dam who was onefor-13, but the works are decent and she meets a seemingly below-average field in her debut; solid barn of course adds to the appeal. SUPER SHOPPER is easily the most experienced member of the field and she has some of the best Beyers in the group; main late threat. KIMBERLY LIGHT was off the pace in a race lacking same in that last one; eligible to improve given a quicker early tempo.

SECOND RACE

KOWBOY’S DEELITE could fall into an ideal stalking trip behind expected speeds FERGIELICIOUS and G. I. GIRL; drop in class should help to move her up as well. FERGIELICIOUS could be tough to reel in if she’s able to get loose in the opening stages; overmatched in her latest, but she won for this tag two back. ELLE VA cuts back from a route but should be prominent from the start regardless.

THIRD RACE

BACKWOODS BO makes his return from the layoff and appears to land in a very soft spot, one where he may be able to use his hint of early speed to get position in a race where those horses with early zip could hold the edge; threat to steal it if able to get clear. DREXELS GOLD is another with some early foot, and he too should benefit from a forward trip. DESIGNER WIN could be the best of the closers but he could be against the race flow if the fractions are controlled.

FOURTH RACE

QUEENS QUARTERS was off the board but was moving well in the late stages last time out, a decent enough effort in her first start vs. winners after a solid score against maiden claimers in her prior run; can make the last move here given a clean trip and an honest pace. NAIFAH finally broke through two back, and though she settled for the show last time that was a decent effort against a solid group; fits here based on that figure. R WAY TO ESCAPE ran down the speed in a good effort in her latest, posting the best Beyer of her short career; dangerous with another step forward.

FIFTH RACE

IRISH STRAIT ran a big race for the show in the Tampa Bay Derby, dueling for the lead from the start and yielding only late; he usually comes from off the pace and he has never posted a Beyer close to that 101 figure he posted there, and if he can run to that effort he looms a handful. SPECIAL ENVOY is back after a layoff but he hails from a barn which does well with such runners; ran well over this course last year in his seasonal bow, albeit in defeat and off a shorter break. ITALIAN CHARM was forced to move prematurely when stuck behind a moderate pace in his latest.

SIXTH RACE

CAPITAL LETTERS has lost three straight races since the allowance win at Ellis Park back in July but in all three he was against the race flow, setting or pressing the pace from the start in races where the closers had the advantage; could steal this if able to get clear and back down the fractions. TWOCUBANBROTHERSU loves this strip and his tactical speed should mean he gets a forward trip here, a favorable scenario given the general lack of pace in the field; 1st or 2nd in each of his last nine starts. GRAY BEAU failed on the turf last time but he was an impressive winner on the main track two back.

SEVENTH RACE

COOL SEAS has the speed to stay close early on, and that most recent figure does put her in the middle of this; looking to turn the tables on likely favorite SWEET YARE N DIRA. The latter ran 2nd in each of her last two, and though she was no threat to either of those two winners she ran well each time; logical enough, though she figures to