ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN

FIRST RACE

MOONLIGHT BLUE picks up 14 pounds from his solid third-place comeback, but he also switches to a journeyman rider having a big meet. Tyler Baze is a clear second in the standings. ‘BLUE pressed a solid pace in his comeback, missed by only two lengths, and has a right to improve second start back. He could get a comfortable trip positioned third behind the speed. SUPER ECHELON wheels back eight days following a fourthplace finish pressing the pace in a downhill sprint. He is a likely pace candidate, though stretch-out LIL AWECIM also is expected to show speed first time long. HARROVIAN could win if able to reproduce the 68 Beyer he earned two starts back. But that figure was earned in a non-competitive scenario; he basically raced evenly finishing more than nine lengths behind the winner. Perhaps he finished second only because someone had to finish second. One more drop, respect his figures, not sure how competitive he is.

SECOND RACE

DANUSKA’S MY GIRL debuts with a solid enough work pattern for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, whose five-year win rate with special-weight fillies is 25 percent (43 for 171). Sired by Shackelford (11 percent debut winners), ‘GIRL is out of a dam that has produced five multiple winners. CHARLATANA, a Harlan’s Holiday filly that is a sibling to G2 winner Laoban, debuts for a top stable. Trainer Bob Baffert has a 22 percent win rate first out with special-weight fillies the past five years. LYRICS is the only entrant with racing experience, runnerup early last month. Three behind her returned to run, none hit the board. Other than the winner Selcourt, it might not have been a strong field. TIZ THE LIGHT is a Tiznow sibling to G1 winner By the Moon. She might want more ground, but will be running late.

THIRD RACE

LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN was gelded before the start of the meet, and since then put together three straight top efforts. He was third with trouble in a maiden special-weight, followed by a daylight win, and two weeks later runner-up in the G2 San Vicente. Sired by the good turf stallion Twirling Candy, LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN should love the switch to grass. Looks like the most probable winner on the card. ROCKIN RUDY set a blazing pace in his comeback on the hill, and finished a creditable second. The colt that beat him, Conquest Farenheit, returned Sunday to win the Pasadena Stakes. ‘RUDY is speed, and with a race under his belt has a shot to wire the field. ELWOOD J was taken off the pace last time, and responded with the best effort of his career, third in the stake won by Conquest Farenheit. ELWOOD J is learning how to run; with the meet’s leading rider Flavien Prat in Dubai this week Rafael Bejarano picks up the mount. He is a threat from off the pace.

FOURTH RACE

EDDIE’S FIRST should win this $6,250 if he repeats his last-out $8k claiming win. However, he drops off the win and subsequently was listed as a stewards’ scratch March 15 at Turf Paradise. Fast horse, conflicting signals, the one to catch. COURAGEOUS DAVE and CHEROKEE DYNASTY are first-time gelding comebackers trained by Steve Miyadi, whose win rate with six-month layoff runners since is 5-for-9 over the past year. ‘DAVE runs well fresh (debut winner), ‘DYNASTY likewise. JUST ONE MORE THING will roll from behind.

FIFTH RACE

GATO DOLCE veered inward at the break in his odds-on comeback, plowed into a rival to his inside, and that sealed his fate. He finished a well-beaten third at 1-to-5. Claimed off the effort, gelded since, he has good gate work March 11 and can make amends. Bottom-barrel $20k maiden claiming races are a Southern California staple; this is the 20th maiden-20 this meet. MIDNIGHT HARBOR rallied wide and missed by less than a length in a decent comeback. he is the late threat. THE TOPESTER drops from maiden-40 for his second start back. TREMORS CODE is an 11-start maiden with two good recent fast-track races under his belt.