ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, GRASSMISS

FIRST RACE

SUMMER OF JOY scored off the drop to this level last time, and she won that race easier than the margin may suggest after only coming clear for the final furlong or so; tactical ability makes her tough right back at the same level. WOUNDWITHHEREYES turns back out of route try where she contested the pace with next-out winner Wonderful Savvy before weakening; drop helps filly who won her only start for a tag to date. KEEPER OF THE BEES was a much the best winner over a weak field on debut, then bombed as the favorite when trying to stretch it out in her second start; turns back off the claim for a trainer who has been going good lately, and she will add blinkers for this.

SECOND RACE

THE UNDERSHERIFF has no real excuse last time after clearing to control of the pace, though he did stay off a strong rail in the stretch, which left it open for the eventual winner, who is a much better horse than anything he meets in this spot; one final chance. Recent form from I WIN since coming back to dirt leaves something to be desired, though he has been facing better horses in those races; not sure how far he wants to go, but this is not a strong group for the level, and he has enough speed to keep close. SCHOUT BAY saved ground as winner Storm the Shore raced clear on the lead, and then trudged on through the stretch to be second-best without ever threatening that horse; good post on the inside.

THIRD RACE

HEAVENLY SCORE flashed some ability on debut when racing off a couple of challenges, only to get overrun by a closing winner late, and she came right back in her next start to dominate maidens on the lead; may turn out to be okay and like this turn back after taking a shot in the Busher. SOUNDS DELICIOUS was a debut winner in slow time at Laurel, then improved seemingly out of nowhere to win off over this track with a 79 Beyer; clearly the horse to beat after backing that race up well when demolishing a weak field back at Laurel with another big fig. WILBURNMONEY had been in deceptively improved form leading into the Franklin square, where she re-found her speed and drove down a game BLUEGRASS FLAG in the stretch to pull off an upset; threat right back if she can keep it going.

FOURTH RACE

RECEIVER still has much to prove on the race track, but don’t want to define him after just two career starts, both of which came over wet tracks; raced very greenly on debut before giving way, but showed more early pace last time, and may be able to step forward now, assuming he gets a fast track to work with. ORNATO was defeated as the favorite at this level when last seen back in January, but he got caught up in a three-way contested pace that day; races two and three back make him tough. BALAC arrived in good form from GP, and he ran well for 2nd over a sloppy track in his NY debut; wasn’t as sharp when favored last time, but he can win this if he rebounds.

FIFTH RACE

ZABAIONE was heavily-favored and ridden with confidence when proving to be much the best last time, and that race came on the heels of a careerbest 84 Beyer performance one start prior when gamely trying to track down PAPA SHOT on the lead; good post toward the inside, and he is adaptable to any pace scenario. PAPA SHOT wound up back off the pace and couldn’t get near a sharp winner in Vincento (94 Beyer) last time, before just managing to hold off CAUSE I’M ALEX for 2nd; expect to see him more forwardly placed this time. CAUSE I’M ALEX has a running style that puts him up against it, but he has been holding form on the inner, and will be running late once again; needs some pace.

SIXTH RACE

SARATOGA WILDCAT was going off form when last seen, but he was against the track in that 1/14 race, and will give him a chance to come around as he gets a trainer change back to Rudy, for whom he posted three of his four career wins

during seven race stretch last year. DRAXHALL

WOODS freshened off the claim after weakening in the stretch vs. a better field last month; may have gotten it done at this level two back had he not vacated the strong rail for the stretch, which allowed eventual winner Rich n Tuck to close up the inside late. FOREST BOY an infrequent winner, but one who tries every time, and has been racing in competitive form lately; can keep close if need be, but he will close if there is pace in front of him.

SEVENTH RACE

PLANET TRAILBLAZER took advantage of a meltdown to pull off an upset on debut, but he came right back to be a clear second-best when stretched out for his second start, and he was unfortunate to be pressed into the role of chaser after a gate scratch left Shuffle Up a lone speed last time; more pace signed on to this race, which only helps his cause, and he is nicely drawn to save some early ground. NOMINAL DOLLARS has gone backward in his two most recent starts, though he didn’t get much pace to develop either time; doubt he ever repeats that repeats that 92 Beyer he earned in his first start for these connections, but he ran legitimately well that day with a good trip, and had been in form prior to that one. VILMA finally broke through with a maiden win in start 14, and did so with a big figure as a heavy favorite; not like that race came out of nowhere for him, but this projects to be a much tougher pace scenario for him.

EIGHTH RACE

LOKI’S VENGEANCE sat a nice trip before driving to the lead in the stretch of the Hollie Hughes only to prove to be no match for CANDID DESIRE in the stretch, but he was off a short layoff there, and he may be a bit tighter for this one; best race gives him a real chance, and he tends to trip-out in his races. CANDID DESIRE has never been better than he is right now, and he is the horse to beat right back after game Hollie Hughes win off a good trip last time; won’t be getting a price on him this time. DRAMA KING sat last and finished well too late when 3rd in the Hollie Hughes; plenty good enough to win vs. this kind of field, just needs the right trip and set-up. RECTIFY blew out to a big new Beyer top when wiring a field while in for a $40k tag last time; good claim by these connections, but he is not supposed to be loose in this field.

NINTH RACE

GRASSMISS got in over her head last time, but she had run well in her two prior starts vs. maiden claimers, including debut where she finished fast after blowing the break; couldn’t catch two starts back, but didn’t hang as the short comment suggests. MALIBU SQUEEZE landed in a race that featured a fast pace on debut, and rallied gamely while staying over toward a strong rail all the way in that spot, then tried to stretch out with fresh Lasix last time; turns back into good spot on the drop. BEN AND JIGGY’S chased behind a couple of these and just raced on evenly without threat first time out; doesn’t have to improve all that much to make it closer this time.