ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, LADY FOG HORN

FIRST RACE

FIVE STAR FACTOR is cut back to a sprint after coming up a little empty in two routes at Oaklawn; likely best suited to racing off the pace in one-turn races and there is plenty of pace to set up her rally. DIAL ME, another Oaklawn turnbacker, looks like the type that could rally for a piece, though a dismal last race at Oaklawn when beaten 18+ lengths in a route is impossible to entirely forgive. SHACKIN UP was a dominant first-out winner on the lead at Arlington way back in May of last year, but now must shake off the rust from a long layoff while stretching out a quarter mile in distance.

SECOND RACE

HAPPY LIKE A FOOL and PARIS CRUISE are Wesley Ward-trained babies that understandably figure to be a force at first asking in this 4 1/2-furlong dash. Difficult to separate them, but ‘HAPPY is intriguing that she is owned by Ward, and he has had some nice fillies over the years, namely Grade 1 winner Judy The Beauty. BOOM POW POW shows a long foundation of works for “Big John” Hancock, whose youngsters are usually geared up early in the year. Also consider OUR GIRL ABBY, who breezed a half mile in 47 seconds flat at Turfway Mar. 18 for trainer Mike Maker.

THIRD RACE

LADY FOG HORN is a 13-time winner and graded stakes winner, but is eligible for this allowance because so many of her victories came in Indiana-bred stakes. She hasn’t run since last fall, but has worked quickly in recent weeks at Tampa and is well spotted for her first race of the year. Also, three of her five rivals are also unraced in 2017. SILENT RONIN is returned to her preferred surface on turf after a comeback race on the grass when matched in a challenging allowance on the grass; likely to move forward off her fourth behind Freudie Anne at Fair Grounds. ROMANTIC VISION finished a couple lengths behind LADY FOG HORN when fifth in the Falls City Handicap last fall, and like that one, hasn’t raced since; is fond of the Keeneland strip with a win and a second in two starts here.

FOURTH RACE

8-1 shot IM THE CAPTAIN NOW woke up in his first start at 3 with a fast-closing second with a wide trip in a turf race at Gulfstream behind Makarios, a horse whose connections thought enough of him to race him as a longshot in Friday’s opening-day Transylvania. YOSHIDA debuted with a runner-up finish last fall at Aqueduct and looks geared up for his return after three breezes going five eighths over the tiring Payson Park strip last month. ANY QUESTIONS showed nothing on dirt in his first three starts and then sprang to life in his latest with a close third in a fast race on the turf at Gulfstream, though after enjoying an easy pace on the lead.

FIFTH RACE

Veteran NEWFOUND GOLD, riding a six-race win streak, simply loves to have his picture taken and is has established himself as a potent runner within the starter ranks. WAR EAGLE’S RETURN, first or second in four straight races, was beaten three lengths by NEWFOUND GOLD in their last head-to-head matchup in February; sharp recent work over the Keeneland strip after being claimed for $15,000 Feb. 28, a race he won by 2 3/4 lengths. FOURTH OF JULY just missed in a firstlevel allowance/$25,000 claimer at Turfway and is now in the third start of his current form cycle; a winner over this track for $10,000 last fall.

SIXTH RACE

FORTY ACRES won over this track last fall against a weak group of maiden $50,000 foes, and after getting outrun twice at Fair Grounds, is dropped into a $20,000 N2L claimer and now races over a track he obviously likes. SWIFT ONE won first out at Turfway and then was fifth in an allowance there Mar. 4; probably not strictly a Poly horse, but unlikely to offer much betting value. He is 5-2 on the line and likely go lower by post time. NOSHACKLESHERE is another that wintered at

Turfway, where he put together his best race of the year when second against $15,000 claimers last out; speedy but inconsistent.

SEVENTH RACE

TAKE THE STAND showed his class with a Grade 2 victory over World Approval in the Mervin Muniz in 2016 and also managing two other graded placings last year; fired fresh to begin 2016 with a close runner-up finish, and looks ready for this in his seasonal bow; likely to control what should be a modest pace. PROJECTED was a consistent performer in France earlier in his career and then was a respectable fourth in a dead heat in graded company in his U.S. bow for trainer Chad Brown; forward move anticipated. DIVISIDERO seeks to get back on track after a disappointing sixth in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap when closer than usual to a slow early pace; probably overbet due to his accomplishments last year, which included a narrow victory in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic.

EIGHTH RACE

SWEET LORETTA won all three of her starts sprinting last year before bombing in the roughly-run Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies around two turns; steady works at Palm Beach Downs for Pletcher, who figures to have her ready. TREBLE hit the board in all three of her starts at Oaklawn this year, capped by a runner-up finish in an allowance there Mar. 24 that earned her an 80 Beyer. Wide trips will likely cause Ragozin and Thorograph players to bet her down from 6-1 morning line. DANCING RAGS won the Alcibiades last year on this course before an eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Although her Alcibiades victory came at a route, she broke her maiden at Laurel in a long one-turn race, which this race is, coming out of the chute at 7 furlongs and 184 feet.

NINTH RACE

After underachieving to begin his career, MOROCCO ran a much-improved second at Gulfstream Feb. 19, losing to next-out winner Dover Cliffs; should offer more value than probable favorite BROOKLYN BOBBY, who has long had a big reputation in part due to being sired by the great racehorse Frankel. ‘BOBBY has managed two seconds on grass this year. ARKLOW should appreciate returning to maiden company after a fourth in the Lecomte and an eighth in the Risen Star; starts for a winning turf barn and is by grass stallion Arch.