ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SHDA BINN DISCREET

FIRST RACE

LAST PRIZE FIGHTER did zilch in her debut but we just don’t care as it means more money today. Dam won 5 of 36 for 171 while lone sib is 19-4-1-4 for 38K. Hydrated rider in Smith so no problem there while a recent blow out work for this. Don’t forget the big price. PRETTY CINDIELOU isn’t bred to like the grass with a 207 grass tomlinson so maybe we can discount turf sprint debut at the Fair Grounds. Trainers stats are just good. This is dam’s first foal so no help there. EASE ON WEST wants to pass runners and lures Eramia. Best effort to date came in her debut at Delta.

SECOND RACE

LEROIDESDANSE is bred to like/love the grass and his sod debut was a near miss down in New Orleans. He was stuck outside in second turf start and regressed but it wasn’t that bad an effort. He comes in fresh for this and draws better. Plus, he doesn’t have to beat a whole lot. Will he like the local lawn? NAUTICAL MAN ran second in lone grass try and it came on this lawn versus straight special weights. Outside post can’t be helped while J/T combo is 38% (small sample). Q’ MARK is by a 12% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green. Lone sib is 5-0-0-0 on the green (sire is Officer). This gelding might show some speed while grass Tomlinson is a very strong at 390.

THIRD RACE

MY QUEEN OLIVIA ran OK in both local starts last summer. She is better now. Current form is poor and there is no getting around that but maybe that helps today’s price. There just isn’t much in here and we think this gal will appreciate starting over on this dirt. MALILA has fresh speed and that is often the best speed. We know that she loves this dirt. Would we like to see more than two works... yes, but you can’t have everything. A stalking trip might actually work best. OUR TOONS has the best Timeform early pace rating at 105. Is she better on the turf though? That dirt try at Delta only two back was OK. Layoff lines are of some concern.

FOURTH RACE

ELLERBE is just getting good. That Delta race two back with first Lasix was promising. He tried two turns for the first time last out and was within a half length with a furlong to go before tiring. Turf breeding is decent while the De Beauville barn is lights out with their turf runners (22%, $4.59 R.O.I.). Even running style and an inside post should help the trip. Did we miss anything? BUBBA RAY’S SUN was stuck in the 12 hole in his turf debut three back versus much tougher. Turf breeding is actually good. One of two sibs won on the grass while the other hit the board. BILLIARDS has run well only once in four starts but it came on the grass at 30-1. New turf horse? The Johnson barn is 27% on the grass and show a flat bet profit.

FIFTH RACE

ROLLING THE DICE went off at 4-1 in his debut versus better at the Fair Grounds. He showed better tactical speed in his second start as many a second time starter will do. Short rest for this with a local work in tow. We think this guy is quickest. Wire please. BRAHMS GENTLEMAN drops in class and goes third off the layoff. A jock switch to help shake things up. LATE AGAIN is by a 3% debut sire. His dam went 18-1-5-5 for 123K. Of 6 sibs to race, 4 won with 3 having beat winners (best earned 151K and 96K). Lots and lots of works.

SIXTH RACE

SHDA BINN DISCREET is a horse for course that hails from a superior turf barn. Need we go on? Connections find a spot where they can’t lose him. Recent work was a bullet blow out. Tactical speed to help with the trip. He almost looks too good and we all know what often happens to those types. NORTH LIGHT RIDGE is just better on the grass which he gets back to today. Local tab is fine and he draws inside where this deep closer can save all the early ground. T’ CADEAU is speed off a short layoff. Post may not matter much if able to clear off into the turn. A nice confidence boost last out when breaking maiden in 11th try. What if he got a taste for winning and liked it? Connect with Daily Racing Form on Twitter and stay up to date with news, videos, photos, and more. @DRFInsidePost