ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, SCHEME FIRST RACE

One last chance for AMERICAN PIONEER, on the drop this time, to show that he can still run; first couple of starts suggested he had a chance to be pretty good, and while he has been almost alarmingly bad in his last few starts, he is supposed to be tough in this kind of race. SARATOGA MISCHIEF another who never panned out following a promising start; dropped way down here on opening day and was defeated as the favorite, but he battled gamely there before settling, and he was well clear of the rest of that field. THE HERO WITHIN’s follow up to hard-fought maiden win two back was a disaster for new connections; better than that, though both of his “good” races have come over tracks with some moisture.

SECOND RACE

HOLIDAY HOPES made a promising debut when racing on through the stretch following a good trip after a pair of next-out winners, and she was a bit unlucky last time after catching some traffic and having to steady at the top of the stretch; think she fits well here, and she may actually be a price. PASSING MOMENTS was a big price on debut at Gulfstream, and while she ultimately finished last, she launched a quick wide run to contention around the turn before flattening out late; picks up Castellano looking to build on debut, where she at least showed something. LEMONDROP LOLLIPOP had run pretty well in first two turf starts of her career, and she once again may have run better than it looks upon her return to grass last month when rated too far back off the pace, before racing on gamely late; likely to be a square price switching back to Velazquez.

THIRD RACE

SADIE BE GOOD a 3yo taking on older, but will take her upside over the established form brought into this spot by her rivals; gave game chase to a pair of odds-on winners in her last two starts, and especially liked the way she kept after R Angel Katelyn (now a four-time stakes winner, and undefeated sprinting on fast dirt) in that last one. PICTURE DAY going good for Linda right now, and looking for four in a row after heads-up ride by Cornelio led to clear-cut score in Claiming Championship race in the mud when last seen; no problem with her stepping up to try allowance company again in her current form, and she appears to have some pace to run at here. MY FAIR LILY a contender, nothing more, with main track form that gives her a chance; doesn’t need the lead, but her two best races on dirt are arguably the two where she was involved from the get-go (though they were both also over wet tracks). BOW TOWN CAT ran a couple of fast races at GP over the winter before shipping up to contest the pace in the muddy Xtra Heat and getting out-finished late; appears to have some other pace to deal with in this spot, as well.

FOURTH RACE

VIOLET BLUE appeared to get in useful debut run when taking a good bump between horses at the start, and then racing on gamely late behind EMPRESSOF THE NILE at Keeneland; bred to stretch out (sire was a Melbourne Cup winner, among other big efforts over a distance of ground) for excellent trainer. EMPRESSOF THE NILE gave VIOLET BLUE that good bump at the break. before sitting a nice trip stalking the pace and gamely holding the lead all through the stretch, only to get tagged right on the wire; all three turf starts so far give her a chance. DOUBLE CAST needs to pick it up, but she did flash some ability after a tough wide trip off a rated pace in her turf debut as a 2yo, and she was wide again off the layoff in a race that was taken wire-to-wire; bred to go long. BLENHEIM PALACE and IF YOU SAY SO exit same race at GP, where they finished close together without threat to the winner of that race (though IF YOU SAY SO had a bit of a trip in her first start for Chad); both are contenders, though they have managed to burn their share of money on the way here.

FIFTH RACE

Would be more confident in taking a shot with

JETSAM SIX if she had done at least some running last time, but she is off the claim here, her races prior to that last one, even in defeat, are not nearly as bad as they look, and her turf form from last summer is actually quite good; one more chance at a price picking up Rosario for underrated trainer. SCARLET GODDESS finally back to turf for first time since nearly pulling off a huge upset on the front-end at Saratoga last summer, and her speed may play well in this field; looked like the clear speed last time on dirt, but rated and then couldn’t catch favored Double Dose after that one got the jump on her. THRICE lightly-raced, but would take her upside over the known quantities in here, should she draw in; just missed after rallying through some traffic on debut, then stepped up and finished gamely again to close down MSW company last time.

SIXTH RACE

SWEET AVERY out of a dam who was an excellent turf horse, but who so far has dropped a pair of foals by this sire who could really run on dirt in Machen, who was a blowout debut winner with a 94 Beyer, before going on to take the Derby Trial in what would turn out to be his last start, and Mawthooq, who ran two fast races to start his career, before enduring a long layoff; trainer doesn’t get enough credit overall, and he can win with a first time starter. QUIET FLIRT and YOUR LOVE both starting out for Chad, who has been strong with first time starters on dirt, even if they mostly get over-bet; QUIET FLIRT is a half-sister to Gun Runner, while YOUR LOVE is a half to three stakes winners, including Economic Model, who had a strong 3yo year for this trainer in 2016. PRIVY COUNCIL and CULPA MIA have the experience that is preferred in these races, but they are both off of layoffs, and the former, who has missed over a year, has burned her share of money along the way.

SEVENTH RACE

PAX IN TERRA has been holding his own vs. some solid competition over the past few years, and while his best races have come on the inner dirt, that appears to be mostly circumstantial; figures tough taking a drop that just doesn’t feel at all negative for 6yo with just 19 career starts, and only three wins. PAID ADMISSION one to be careful with as he wheels back quickly on the drop for second start off the Jacobson claim, but he does have the back races to be a factor here, and he was never going to impact that race last Thursday; threat if he can somehow rebound. ARE WE NOT MEN two-for-two off the Rudy claim, including easy score in the mud last time after a heady ride, and jammed right back at the same level. READY DANCER can do better second off the claim after getting outrun over that speed-favoring track on Wood Day in his first start for these connections; he’s another with plenty of back races to point to, though he has been a disappointment overall for some top barns.

EIGHTH RACE

SCHEME looked good winning her debut, and while things finally worked out for her there, it was ultimately due to her willingness to go through some traffic and then accelerate, and she ran better than the final finishing position may lead some to believe last time after getting her momentum broken at a key point; back to her available condition in a tough race, but she has a chance to be okay. PENJADE off the layoff for Chad after failing to fire in the Tropical Park Oaks to close out her 3yo campaign; been close but not quite for her so far since arriving stateside, but she has actually run well in some tough spots, including that 10-furlong try vs. Sassy Little Lila last October. VAGABOND looks like one set to come forward for Shug following progressive 2016; bred to go on, and she had an unlucky trip when last seen over yielding ground.

NINTH RACE

BARONET had no excuses after a good trip when back on grass last month, but that was a tougher race, and she has run some good turf races at the claiming level; have no problem with her sprinting on the drop. SAME KINDA CRAZY also at a good level starting back from the layoff, and she actually has turf sprint form to point to; big threat if ready off the bench. HOLD ON MOMMA interesting going right to turf off the claim, especially considering her solid recent form on the main track (good effort two back after getting caught in some stretch traffic); lone turf start to date came routing last summer, but she ran well enough there to suggest that she handles this surface fine.