How to play the Pick 4

With the Grade 3, $500,000 Ohio Derby anchoring the last leg, here is an analysis and suggested ticket for the Pick 4 sequence at Thistledown on Saturday that begins with race 5.

Race 5, The George Lewis Memorial

A 1 1/8-mile dirt race for Ohio-breds, this race seems best played using only two runners: Eightthehardway (7) and Buckeye Bullet (5). The latter just beat the former in a stake over the Thistledown strip, but in a sprint, and Eightthehardway seems the more likely of the two to move forward with the stretch out to a route.

Race 6, Claiming

Going three deep in this claiming race seems the way to go with the preferred horses being Paltarrevenge (1), Leombruno (2), and Woelf Den (6). All three are in-form runners with imposing local records.

Race 7, J. William Petro Memorial

This race, like the George Lewis, is for Ohio-bred routers – though this race is a bit shorter at 1 1/16 miles and restricted to fillies and mares. Justalittlesmoke (4) has been a dominant performer in Ohio-bred company in 2016-2017, and though an infrequent router, she did win this race last year. And since that time she has only elevated her game and therefore is a must use. Given all the speed in the field, it also seems logical to use Gold Cait (7), the 2015 winner of this race, who was whipped by Justalittlesmoke last out in a sprint but who is the more experienced router.

Race 8, The Ohio Derby

Girvin (5), Irap (2) and to a lesser extent Untrapped (3) are the classiest horses in the Ohio Derby, and one of the three should prove victorious. All three were well beaten in the Kentucky Derby, but this is obviously a much softer race, and Girvin would appear the one most likely to improve upon his Kentucky Derby performance when 13th. He missed valuable training time leading up to the race when battling a quarter crack, and had to get specialized care to simply make the race. Irap, though inconsistent, has the best quality victory of the group – a win in the Grade 2 Bluegrass – while Untrapped merits inclusion in the Pick 4 after a series of competitive races at Oaklawn before getting thumped in the Derby.