ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, SPRING FOLLY

FIRST RACE

SPRING FOLLY was heavily favored entering the gate for a similar race here on June 9th, but acted up badly in the gate necessitating a scratch; tries again, this time with a little added distance which may work in her favor, as she was finishing up well in that debut once coming clear of traffic in the stretch. FANCY GEM stumbled after the break of her debut, then raced greenly for much of that trip, before winding up over behind a stopping pacesetter late; can improve quickly, and switch to Castellano won’t hurt. KINKY SOX sat a nice trip and made the lead ahead of a troubled winner in her debut on turf, but was just finishing evenly and was no match for that horse (who may be pretty good) late; forget about the dirt try last time, she will have Lasix for the first time on grass today, and she is bred for turf.

SECOND RACE

VILMA is inconsistent and thus unreliable, but a good fit here with one of his better races, especially at any fair price; nice post on the outside of the other two speeds, both of whom are a little light on figures on the way in. SHADOW RIDER a closer looking for something to run at late, which he didn’t necessarily have in that last one once VILMA dropped his rider at the start; prefer him to PHAT MAN out of that race, as he at least tried to make a middle move to contention. BUNYAAN easily defeated a weak field in the mud to pick up bit of an overdue maiden win two starts back, and he was no match after contesting the pace at this level last time; would give him a chance to pull the right trip in field with uninspiring favorites. PLANET TRAILBLAZER can win, but he is a bit of a plodder, and his lone career win came when closing from last-to-first into a fast pace.

THIRD RACE

DROVER CRAZY completely bombed after cutting the pace in NY debut vs. a tougher field and now drops off the claim for top connections, but he is clearly better than that last one, and he lands in a field here where his speed, and one of his better races, makes him tough; Rudy 40%, $2.95 ROI in dirt sprints off the claim following this kind of layoff (31-60 days). WILL DID IT has made his last two starts, separated by a layoff, out of town following a successful run here through the end of 2016, and he had excuses in both of those races (off the pace in a race dominated up close at Parx, and off to an awkward start before making a run to contention along the rail last time); like him more if his entry-mate scratches. A FLEET ATTITUDE has never made a start outside of Pennsylvania, but he is consistently solid sprinting on dirt, and his new trainer is underrated off the claim; layoff since he was taken back in October the main concern.

FOURTH RACE

LUCULLAN made a somewhat promising debut when forced to chase a faster and experienced rival over a speed-favoring track, then stretched out and contested the pace before tiring last time; bred for turf being a Hard Spun with plenty of grass on the dam-side of his pedigree, and the known quantities on this surface in this field aren’t so scary. SENTRY and NOW IN A DRIVE have a Keeneland race in common where they finished noses apart in 3rd and 4th, and the latter returned to finish a good 2nd over here to the talented Cerise’s Prince, who has since come back to win again; difference between them right now is efficiency, as SENTRY has so far been pretty inefficient while racing greenly, allowing some hope that he can and will improve, while NOW IN A DRIVE has already improved while getting backto-back good trips, and thus may not have as much room to get better.