ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, POOL WINNER

FIRST RACE

NOBLE DAVE broke his maiden last time after running in three straight races where he was against the race flow, trying to close ground in sprints where the speeds had the edge (note the “S” symbols in his DRF pp lines), and he was impressive in victory, engulfing the leader in the lane with a powerful stretch run; can score in his first start vs. winners given an honest pace up front. PINTORESCO has been in similar situations in terms of pace in three of his last four but he stands to improve here given a more favorable race flow; ran well enough last year in his first start off the bench. KING DUDE OF OCALA weakened late in his local bow but the race-long duel cost him; dangerous if he can take off the pace and make one run.

SECOND RACE

MOUNTAIN CRY was no threat to the winner in that last one but that runner was a prohibitive favorite as the lone speed in the field, and this gelding was game to get the place; better race flow likely today and that could move him way up. GREY GLORY rises off the claim but merits respect off that solid score last time as well as the back figures; inside draw and tactical speed add to the appeal. VISIONARY RULER is obviously the one to fear at this reduced level, and he will be very tough, if not unbeatable, if he’s able to run to his best Beyers; this class drop has to be considered suspicious, however, and value will not be there.

THIRD RACE

CELEBRITY WARRIOR is looking for his second straight and he seems very well spotted for trainer Joe Pierce, as there are a couple of speeds in the field who should help to set the table for his late run; loves this course, too. VAKEESH was behind the top pick last time but a neck in front of him on the wire two back, and he, too, figures to benefit from the expected race flow; looms a much bigger price than that runner. CLASS AND CASH ran a disappointing race in his latest but he has to be respected off his back Beyers, which are the best figures in this field; may need to avoid a race-long pace battle if he’s going to run to them, however.

FOURTH RACE

Tony Wilson seems to hold the aces in this route with the entry of GINGGE and TWOFOUR SIX OH ONE. The former gets a more favorable pace scenario today than she did in her latest, when she chased a moderate, controlled pace, and the Beyer she earned in that effort gives her strong credibility; she could be in line to move forward in the third start of her form cycle. TWOFOUR SIX OH ONE is the one to catch and beat, coming off two blowout scores in her last pair; completes the formidable entry. PIER VILLAGE was visually impressive in that maiden score, a sprint, and she could be the main challenger if she successfully negotiates two turns.

FIFTH RACE

BOBBY THE BOSS makes his first start off the claim and his first start vs. winners and he seems to be in a very good spot as the possible controlling speed in a seemingly paceless field; can repeat today if he is in fact able to get loose early and back down the fractions. FRIED BALONEY is the main danger given his Beyers, and though he was off the board in that last one he seemed to face a better field than he meets here; main threat in the lane. STADIUM just missed in his latest, the 4th time in eight career starts that he’s gotten the place; exacta threat, for sure.

SIXTH RACE

FAST FRIAR was behind CHUBBLE MAKER when they met last time but the former can turn the tables if she moves forward at this slightly extended distance, as expected, and if the latter faces pressure on the front end this time around; had a race flow excuse in her lone poor try sprinting to date. CHUBBLE MAKER is clearly the one to beat and it won’t be easy if he’s able to shake loose and control the pace again; looks like one of these two. WE B JAMMIN may be prepping for longer in his first start off the layoff but he’s capable of making some nice here with a forward trip under Paco Lopez.

SEVENTH RACE

POOL WINNER scored in game fashion last year when he made his first start off a six month layoff, and while this is a slightly longer break he has to be respected; he also looms the main speed today, which adds to the appeal. SUPER SPENDER has a solid late kick and he is the main danger in the lane, as he has the best turf/sprint Beyers in the field; barn solid off these intermediate breaks in action (29%, $2.79 ROI). SNOWDAY, part of an entry with BLUE Y GOLD, runs well over this course and comes off a sharp score in his seasonal bow.

EIGHTH RACE

HOT DIXIE DAME is the first foal out of a dam who was a turf horse but she apparently gets her speed from sire Union Rags, as she has been working very well toward her career debut; according to DRF Formulator stats, trainer Greg Sacco shows a flat-bet profit with juvenile firsters going less than six furlongs at Monmouth over the past five years (eight wins from 42 starters, $3.12 ROI). ON THE HASSLE is going to be overbet, not only because she’s the only filly with racing experience but also due to the runner-up finish as the odds-on favorite in her debut, for Pletcher, no less; certainly would be no surprise but will also be no value. LITTLE DIPPER is out of a dam who won her own debut and went on to run 2nd in the Sorority over this strip; kin to three winners, including Grade 2 stakes winner Bye Bye Bernie and six-time sprint winner Joe Franklin, who earned over $229K.