ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, FRACAS

FIRST RACE

Apprentice rider Evin Roman, fourth in the standings, is positioned for a big day. Roman has mounts in all 10 races, and several top choices including TIZ ADORE. Though the mare’s career is checkered with layoff lines, and she is unproven on dirt, she has been running well against better company than she meets in this $25k claiming N2L route. Her pedigree is fine for dirt; her figures are good enough to win from off the pace. Tough race, however. YAFFE is another unproven on dirt. But she has more speed than the top choice, and she ran okay last out finishing second in a turf race at this level. She should get a pacepressing trip chasing the stretch-out sprinter SHE’ S LUCKY THAT WAY. The latter followed her maiden-30 romp with another decisive sprint win over 3yo claiming fillies. She stretches out for the first time; no reason she will not stay a mile. SASSY ASHLEY and ROOM ON THE BROOM are in relatively good current form.

SECOND RACE

BLANKET OF ICE (Roman) has turned into a win machine. The gelding has taken three of his last four including a starter allowance last time over next-out 12-time winner City Steel. The versatile running style of ‘ICE allows him to set the pace or rally from off; Roman and trainer Vann Belvoir are 6-for-16 together. MYSTERY TRAIN has not raced since last August, but his workouts suggest he is ready to fire first start back, first-time gelding, first start off the claim by Ron Ellis. MYSTERY TRAIN was a multiple Group 1 winner in Argentina, Grade 3-placed in the U.S., and based on his workouts he has more to offer. The 7yo returns in a $25k claiming race while not eligible to be claimed via CHRB rule 1634; that move signals optimism. Fast works suggest the gelding is ready to roll first start back. INDYGO BO moves up one level seeking his third straight. No knocks on the pro with the highest last-out figure, an 87 Beyer.

THIRD RACE

Y’S PASSION (Roman) is likely to improve second start back, dropping from maiden-40 to maiden- 20. He threw a fit in the gate in his comeback, broke dead last, and was all but eliminated. That was his first start in more than a year. He cannot drop any lower than this; he should move up with a prep under his belt. PARCHED is an interesting pace play. He stretched to a route last time, set a fast pace, led into the lane, then tired and finished fifth. Not bad, not great. Although it is uncertain if he really wants to run this far (mile and sixteenth), he might have things his own way on the front end. If he rations his speed, he has a chance to steal it. On the other hand, only two of 18 races this meet at a mile and a sixteenth were won by the pacesetter. RUN LIKE RHETT could vie for favoritism based on three straight in-the-money finishes at this level. The deep closer will roll from behind; based strictly on speed figures he is the one to beat. Tough to back a deep-closing maiden at low odds, however. PAPA ROYALE might be ranked too low. He has been running well against better rivals, on turf.

FOURTH RACE

OLD MAN LAKE is positioned for a mild upset in this Cal-bred N1X/optional $16k claiming turf sprint. This is his third start back from a layoff; his 26-length defeat last out was partly the result of jumping over a fallen rival in the stretch. Otherwise, OLD MAN LAKE perhaps could have finished second. The veteran has run okay on the hill in the past; his form one year ago would be good enough for this race. Third start back, upset chance from off the pace. A NEW TREND is the speed of the field. Although six and one-half furlongs might be out of reach for the veteran, he is certain to clear the field and lead as far as he can. The turf rails were at 30 feet when he led to the inside the eighth

pole before fading last out. The rails are at 20 feet today, virtually the same configuration. Although the rails-up layout did not provide enough help for A NEW TREND last out, speed recently has held better in turf sprints when the rails are at 20 or 30 feet, compared to zero or 10 feet. EICHEL finished third in back-to-back turf sprints. He is a late threat; CHEEKABOOMBOOM merits a similar comment. CALVERT STREET (Roman) probably will be positioned closed to the pacesetter and would get first run if/when that one fades.

FIFTH RACE

Looks like a bleak field of maiden-20 fillies and mares at five furlongs in the key race on the card: last leg of pick five, first leg of pick six. Curious placement, the lowest-quality race in a key spot. Also-eligible GYPSY TREASURE (Roman) drops from Cal-bred maiden-50 with speed to wire the field. First-time starter RISKY FACTOR was posting fast workouts last summer as a 2yo, was sidelined from October until April, and appears to have worked well for her long-awaited debut. DELIGHTFUL EVENT makes her career debut with modest works, although this stable does not typically work its horses fast. SWEET MISS DERBY is another first-time starter facing a soft group.

SIXTH RACE

Looks like a good field of 2yo fillies in this MSW at five furlongs; FRACAS (Roman) is working like she will fire first out for trainer Simon Callaghan. She worked fast at the OBS sale (10.0 seconds), was purchased for $190k, and continues to blaze away in works at Santa Anita including a :46.80 bullet gate work last week. Callaghan popped last month with a fast-working 2yo colt (Run Away); this filly can score likewise as the most probable winner on the card. MEDAGLIA GOLD perhaps was only prepping in her debut last month. Facing males, she dueled inside and tired. Since then, the well-bred filly trained well at San Luis Rey, is in with fillies this time, and should move up with a race under her belt. Also-eligible MONDAY MORNING BLUES had a nightmare trip in her debut, finishing fourth as the 1.30-1 favorite. She gets an outside post and rider change. ACHARNEMENT was hammered to favoritism in her debut, and finished last. Blinkers on, sharp gate work five days ago, likely improvement.

SEVENTH RACE

A tepid pace scenario in this sprint for 3yo fillies may give WHAT A TEN the advantage. She set an honest pace winning a maiden-50 two back, then misfired on turf in her next start. Freshened two months, returning to dirt, she should make the lead and could be long gone. Trainer Pete Eurton is on a roll, 6-for-14 since late last month. ADIOS CALI finished second last out in a starter allowance vs. older, with a wide trip. The knock is that her race looks better on paper than it looks on video. Perhaps that is too critical, because the consistent filly is the field’s only two-time winner on this circuit and should have the top choice in her sights. TABLE FOR THREE had trouble last out on turf; her maiden win two back on dirt puts her in the picture. ROAD TEST goes route to sprint and will rally late. HONOR MAKER (Roman) is fresh, training well, and might be ranked too low.

EIGHTH RACE

Front-running maiden CLIFTON BEACH is the speed of the field, returning to dirt for his second start back, and the one to catch. He pressed an extreme pace last time in a comeback on turf; he could be tough to catch back on dirt. THE RULE OF KING’S was in tough last time in a specialmaiden race; his runner-up finish two starts back at this maiden-75 class level makes him a logical contender. ARTISTIC AB (Roman) drops a notch, second time out. He had trouble in his debut, and should be forwardly placed. CAPTAIN CHAOS was gelded following his debut last month.

NINTH RACE

The visually impressive maiden win by MOONSHINE ANNIE stamps the lightly raced filly as the choice over improving stretch-runner KENNEDIE SKY in this turf mile for Cal-bred N1X fillies and mares. But it’s a close call. MOONSHINE ANNIE put it all together last time in the third start of her career. She saved every inch of ground under another excellent turf ride by Gary Stevens, angled outside for the drive and kicked away to win by more than two. Sharp win by a good filly that has improved each subsequent start. This is only the fourth of her career; she can win right back if she can hold off the closing rally of KENNEDIE SKY. The latter finished well for second last time at this class level; the race was validated when the winner Starlite Style returned to win an open N1X. Based on closing fractions, KENNEDIE SKY is a faster finisher than the top choice (23-and-change, vs. 24-and-change). GOLDEN LIGHT has a second and a third from three starts at this level; her high-70s Beyer Figures make her one of the “fastest” in the field. SEA SMOKE is making her seventh start at this level; she hit the board her last three. HAVEITURE WAY (Roman) goes long for the first time, tries turf for the first time. The lead is hers, if she wants it.

TENTH RACE

GROUND RULES drops from a $16k claiming starter, into a $16k claiming race restricted to nonwinners of three. He also is likely to be taken off the pace. He was surprisingly close to the lead last time, and backed up. He runs best rallying from behind, and is reunited with Kent Desormeaux, who was aboard for his two wins early in his career. GROUND RULES finished second at this level two starts back. HOT PARIS NIGHT (Roman) is the “now” horse, in the money both recent starts at this level. His pressing style generally leads to a good trip. Also-eligible NATIVE RIDE is the fastest on figures, but stuck on the far outside in this mile race, while making his first start in more than a year. He entered with the “no-claim waiver.” GUNSLIGINER has run races that are fast enough.