ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, ROCKETRY

FIRST RACE

JUST GOT OUT was game but didn’t quite have enough when behind MADDIZASKAR in the Sis City back in April, but that race was contested over a wet track where she isn’t often at her best, and their prior meeting came in a two-turn route; drops back down after getting in too tough vs. open allowance rivals over that sloppy track last time, and she came through with good effort while up with the pace at about this level two starts back. MADDIZASKAR found her good form when switched back to dirt earlier this year, and she has been trying some tougher races recently, including a pair of starts back on grass; drops back down looking to cycle back after pair of flat efforts in last two. LA INESPERADA owns dangerous speed, and she is also dropping back down in class after losing her form recently; chased behind 15-time winner Line of Best Fit at Parx last time, but she was done awful early in that spot.

SECOND RACE

MISERICORDIA was rated to the back of that field in her debut, but she made a game run around the turn, and then carried it gamely through the stretch in solid-looking effort; right kind of spot to build upon that one. DEFROCK had no excuse after making the pace in her turf debut second time out at Saratoga, but that was still an improved effort for her, and she will have Lasix for the first time on turf here as she switches back following a speed and fade 3yo debut on dirt. COMPLICIT and SILVER SHAKER pair of Chad Brown runners looking to improve upon their repsective late-running debuts. COMPLICIT got a piece of her late-season run over yielding ground, through that was a race that featured a collpasing pace, while SILVER SHAKER wound up too far away early at Gulfstream, before rallying gamely late. RESONATE and SOAR ONCE MORE exit strong maiden dominated by a different Chad Brown pair, and they are both eligible to factor here.

THIRD RACE

LOYAL HEART turf-to-dirt and dropping back to better level after landing in fast-paced turf route on a short turn around last time; has been in good form when properly spotted recently, including a better-than-it-looks run two back where she made a long, wide run after blowing the start. ZEVEN has been concentrating more on turf lately, where she ran well last time, but she was once running races on this surface that would overwhelm this kind of field; tough if that last one signalled a turn around. LITTLE MISS JULIA dropping and turning back off a bit of a layoff; last three sprints all good effort,s including easy win closing into a fast pace three starts back. SPLASH OF SASS enters at just 1-for-20 and will need to improve, but she catches a few of these at the right time, and she benefits from this turn back.

FOURTH RACE

SPRING TO THE SKY an infrequent winner these days, but he is better than these horses on his good days, and returns in a spot where he can put his ample early speed to good use; does have to prove that he can still run after tailing off late last year, but he returned from a similar layoff in 2016 with a strong effort in a tougher spot. BIG ROCK turned pair of perfect trips into back-to-back wins when cut back to sprint last summer; gave away his best chance last time when rated after an alert start in a race that wound up being wired by Loose on the Town. DOWSE’S BEACH took advantage of an uncontested pace to score off the claim for a dangerous trainer last time, and he earned a new career best figure in the process; doesn’t need the lead to win.

FIFTH RACE

WALK AND TALK a half to three-time turf winner Cosmic Tale finally getting to grass after pair od main track sprints to start, and he will race a a new gelding, as well; can put his experience to good use

in race lacking for appealing firsters. FUN PROSPECT got rained off the turf first time out, then got blown away by a sharp winner in the slop; expect better on the grass. JOE’S SMOKIN GUN hasn’t distinguished himself on dirt; Posse colt switches to grass with blinkers on, and his dam is a sister to multiple Grade 1 turf winner Miss Temple City.

SIXTH RACE

BUSTIN IT faces more speed and a couple of better horses here as ahe steps up a bit off the re-claim, but he has been in sharp form since getting back into shape following a long layoff, and he will not be easy to keep up with early; staying with him one more time. BUST ANOTHER has posted just one win since upsetting the Mike Lee here last summer, and that came in a Parx sprint that found the closers up against it; class drop helps, and he owns nice tactical speed. NOBODY MOVE can also land the right kind of trip is someone can push BUSTIN IT early; game win two starts back when finding room and getting up in a blanket finish.

SEVENTH RACE

WAR BOND overcame a bit of a troubled trip to win on a class drop over at Aqueduct, then stepped up with an improved effort off the claim in his next start; just went evenly over that longer distance last time in a race that was dominated up close, but think he’s improved, and like this shorter distance for him. IL SEGRETO made his first four starts in stakes company upon his arrival last summer, then tried a tough allowance field last time and got headstrong running off a bit on the lead before weakening in the stretch; big class drop into race without much other speed. UNBRIDLED OCEAN has lost his consistency, but he remains capable, and he is also cutting back out of that pace-dominated race going longer last time; looked like a sure winner while closing down the outside with the momentum at this level two starts back, but he was somehow out-finished by hard-hitter NEOCLASSIC up the inside.

EIGHTH RACE

ROCKETRY was very unlucky not to get it done over this distacne two starts back, but he had no issues rolling over that field last time with a big finish, while appearing to have some better races in his future; tough to go against as he takes the next logical step. GAUGUIN has that unknown quality about him in a race where the familiar faces are clearly going to have trouble with ROCKETRY; good effort to just miss off the layoff in France over about this distance. TO YOUR HEALTH lacks pace, or any race that makes him close to competitive with ROCKETRY, but he did run well to close ground in that pace-dominated race in that first start for this trainer.

NINTH RACE

HIT IT ONCE MORE was a 3yo on the improve last summer, culminating in pair of convincing stakes wins with competitive figures, before taking on more than he could handle from an impossible post in the Pennsylvania Derby, and then catching a sloppy track in the Empire Classic, where he didn’t run poorly at all; caught slop again off the bench, and tired after tracking a fast pace,but he likely needed that one, anyway; tough spot, but he can go with these if he can taken a step forward at 4. SAMRAAT lacks the recency of his stablemate DIVERSIFY, but he was Diversify 1.0 for Violette, winning the first five starts of his career, and then going on to consistently hold his own in graded stakes company; layoff the main concern, but he showed that he can still run last year. GOVERNOR MALIBU cuts back and drops out of Brooklyn that came back fast; not sure how many more excuses I’m willing to make for him, but he had run well without winning in his first two starts this year,and there should be some pace for him to run at here. INSIDE STRAIGHT the wildcard dropping out of Met Mile where he lost all chance at the start, and where he was in way over his head anyway; improved for trainer winning lots of races here.

TENTH RACE

POLAR CITY was game after being strongly rated early and then left to chace a loose winner through the stretch in his turf debut, then cut the pace and tired vs. a better field last time; drop a plus, and like this shorter trip for him. TOWNIE lost position while in behind horses on the turn, then just finished evenly vs. MSW horses in his debut; drops with blinkers on switching back to turf. RAREST QUALITY also dropping, and he has speed from the rail as he makes his turf debut; enough turf pedigree to handle the switch.