How to play the Pick 4

The last of three pick fours on the Saturday night card at Indiana Grand is of the all-stakes variety spanning races 6 through 9. It’s a good sequence, too, landing on the Grade 3, $500,000 Indiana Derby. Could the sequence chalk out? It very well could. Big World ($#5) is going to be heavily favored in race 6, the Marie Hulman George, Mopotism (#8) is the heavy chalk in race 8, the Indiana Oaks, and Irap (#2) could be odds-on to win the Indiana Derby. Race 7, the William G. Schaefer Memorial, looks more contentious. If the chalk all wins, I lose – but not really, since the bet will pay only a pittance if the three favorites I mentioned get home. Here’s how I’ll construct my ticket.

Race 6

I’m using Big World, in great part because this race isn’t especially strong, but don’t trust her. My top pick, and perhaps the best value, is Cced (#1), who has shown talent from the very start of her career a yearand-a-half ago, and has steadily improved this season. It sure looks like trainer Brendan Walsh, who is having a whale of a year, has targeted this race since a breakthrough allowance score May 27 at Churchill. Mo d’Amour (#3) has run fast enough in the past to win, and goes first time for new head trainer Rodolphe Brisset, the highly capable longtime assistant to trainer Bill Mott. Improv (#8) was 28/1 last out in the G3 Matron, where she led and nearly held on to beat the very decent Walkabout. That was her first try at a true route in well over a year. Maybe it wasn’t a fluke, and speed often is effective on this surface.

Race 7

I’m booting the best known names, Eagle and Mo Tom from this ticket. Fear the Cowboy (#1) got within a halflength of Iron Fist last out at Evangeline, and Iron Fist aired in the G3, $300K Prairie Meadows Cornhusker last weekend. Cowboy’s fairly short burst should be effective at short-stretch Indiana Grand. Bucchero (#4) loves the surface, has quality, and just might slip clear on the lead. Money Flows (#7) has been craftily managed throughout his career and will fit this spot better than his odds.

Race 8

Here’s the chalk I’m buying, Mopotism (#8), who has faced nearly all the very best 3-year-old fillies in the country this year and has fared creditably. She could sit a perfect trip just behind a fast pace and will get first run on her main rival Majestic Quality.

Race 9

Here’s the chalk I’m selling, Irap. Irap is going to be odds-on here, but he’s back on just three weeks rest after a tough-looking win (career best Beyer) in Ohio, and he has been out on the road now for several weeks. His two wins came at 9 furlongs & I really wonder how he’s going to like compact Indiana Grand. I’m using the other five horses (I don’t think Society Beau can get there in time with this homestretch) I think can win, all of whom would produce a decent payoff.