$75,000 Guaranteed All-Stakes Late Pick Four Analysis

Race 9 - $738,550 Meadowlands Pace

After spending quite some time thinking about potential pace scenarios, the bottom line is that (4) HUNTSVILLE comes out ahead in my mind about 65% of the time, which makes his likely 3/5 off odds acceptable. I expect driver Tim Tetrick to be very aggressive here, make the lead not much after the quarter and try to take the field down the road, similar to his win with Captaintreacherous in 2013. (6) MISO FAST should have plenty of options from this post. Driver Matt Kakaley could leave hard and try to secure good position behind the favorite or potentially follow live cover if fellow contender (5) DOWNBYTHESEASIDE races from off the pace. I see him as the best longshot play in the field. Downbytheseaside caught some tough luck in the NA Cup and Hempt. After a while you stop blaming luck (trips) and start looking at the horse. Iʼm using him on my pick four tickets but Iʼm hesitant.

Race 10 - $427,400 Haughton Memorial

If you are looking for value this race is the best option on the card. Any of the 12 horses could conceivably win the race and there is no doubt trip will play a factor in this bulky field. That said, Iʼm going to the morning line favorite (12) MEL MARA. Why? Because I think he is the best horse in the race and we should be able to get 3-1 or so. Iʼm hoping the second-tier starting spot will actually help him get the lead a bit later in the mile this week. (6) ROCK Nʼ ROLL WORLD never really got ʻracedʼ in his two Pocono starts with Brian Sears in the bike. In a wide open field, Iʼm hoping he puts this guy into play. (2) ALL BETS OFF seems as sharp as heʼs been in his career. Any reasonable trip could find him in the winnerʼs circle. (5) BOSTON RED ROCKS owns a handful of secondplace finishes this year. He is going to get over the top eventually.

Race 11 - $201,000 Golden Girls

(1) PURE COUNTRY qualified with a purpose as she really hasnʼt seen much ʻactionʼ in her races this year. If she is on her game, there is no reason why she canʼt best the favorite. (4) NIKE FRANCO N seems to be inching closer to a win versus likely heavy chalk (10) LADY SHADOW and I think you have to roll the dice against her if you want to get a good payday in this pick four. Cold Lady Shadow roll down the road to remain perfect in six starts this year? Yes. But I donʼt see her as worth 3-5 here.

Race 12 - $161,500 Stanley Dancer

(1) RUBIO looked like a winner (or at worse a good second) two starts back before the break and was cruising along when he jumped again last time at Pocono. I know the talent is there and Iʼm hoping the switch to the big track will cure any issues. (4) LONG TOM could be the heavy favorite here after his runner-up finish in the Beal. I donʼt like the price but respect his chances. (5) WHAT THE HILL was urged home in his latest qualifier which tells me they are trying to sharpen him up for these stakes races. I can see him winning.