ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, MR. PETE

FIRST RACE

NO HIDING PLACE returned from a short layoff in a much tougher spot on Belmont Stakes Day and finished last after chasing the early pace; best race makes him tough in this spot, and the class drop doesn’t seem quite so negative for 5yo gelding who races infrequently. TASUNKE WITCO really appreciated the return to Rudy’s barn when turning his form completely around to bury a field at about this level last month; tough to beat if he can do it again, as his form from first stint for this trainer suggests he can. KING OF ANYTHING has run well in all three NY starts to date without winning, all of them at big prices; likely gets overlooked again. W. GILES has speed and back races that make him tough, but he was no match for TASUNKE WITCO in that last one, and it’s tough to claim from his prior trainer.

SECOND RACE

SMART AND SASSY drifted in at the start, but she had some speed to get forward in debut over a sloppy track before taking a bad step and dropping her rider; half to pair of very good turf mares Invading Humor and Distorted Beauty may have been using that race as a prep, anyway. SHE’S DREAMIN has twice been rated back off the early pace, and then twice finished up gamely through the stretch to get a piece, most recently in a race that was dominated up front; added furlong could work to her advantage here. SUPER MAMA was a beaten favorite in all three starts as a 2yo for leading trainer, but she improved each time and just missed in that last one to a good horse in Fifty Five; tough if ready to step forward in 3yo debut.

THIRD RACE

MORNING BREEZ debuting in what appeared to be a pretty strong field on NY-bred maidens, and Morning Line colt traveled strongly throughout that race before taking over in the stretch to finish clear; forward 2yo looks like one who could continue to be tough, at least in the short term. ANALYZE THE ODDS was a clear cut winner over what may have been a weaker field in early debut at Aqueduct for Pletcher; took on too tough of an assignment in the Tremont last time, but didn’t embarrass himself there. MORRISON caught a sloppy track in a race scheduled for turf in his debut, and won off as he pleased through the stretch, though with only a figure of 55 when all was said and done; we’ll see. Pletcher’s other runner, WHAT A CATCH, chased the pace after getting out-broke from the gate first time out, but he was up to take over and then get clear in the stretch as some others were unfortunate behind him.

FOURTH RACE

FIRE KEY has run pretty well under a variety of circumstances, but she seems to clearly prefer sprinting on turf, which she has reaffirmed in her last two starts, including powerful win on the front end last time; unlikely to lose to this field if she can run another 87. Have always liked VICKI’S DANCER as a turf sprinter, and it was nice to see her rebound with an easy win over lesser when switched over at Parx last time after some poor performances on the main track since returning from a layoff; has to move forward again, but has the back races to do so for an excellent trainer. Still prefer BARRIER TO ENTRY to Linda’s other horse, STARTWITHSILVER, who has just been too disappointing since a promising start, but that loss last time is not going to be an easy one to forgive as she took dead aim on a longshot leader in that spot and not only couldn’t get by, she was out-finished by a severely troubled Five Hearts, as well.

FIFTH RACE NOVIQUE has clearly been a disappointing claim so far, managing just the one start way back in January, which remains her only start over the past 13 months; dicey dropping for her return, but she is likely better than these horses if she can still run. HOLD ON MOMMA also dropping back down after moving up in class, and catching a wet track that she doesn’t like in her first start off the claim; has been 1st or 2nd in all five NY starts sprinting on dirt otherwise, and may be catching the top one at the right time. E WARFARE has tried turf again in a couple of recent starts, but she’s better on this surface, and has had very few starts vs. this kind of horse on dirt.

SIXTH RACE

BASELINE just wasn’t good enough after a bit of a wide trip vs. a better field last time, but he was impressive when coming through a tight opening in the stretch and then out-finishing a rival with the momentum to defeat maidens off a surface switch two starts back; back down to a better level for second start off the claim, and Castellano sticks. STORMIN MACLEAN caught a very tough spot behind Big Handsome in his debut, and he was game while only second-best while chasing a front-running winner here last time; tough if he can repeat that one for a very sharp trainer, and if he can get the seven. NEW JERSEY JOHN will have to up his game on turf, but he has improved since the trainer change in the spring, and his dam arrived stateside with some turf form in her native Chile. ABBOT taking a big class drop in second start back from a lengthy layoff; has clearly faced much better horses than this on grass.

SEVENTH RACE

KIERLAND appeared to need that debut while racing in spots early and then flattening out readily late after making a run to contention along the inside; lasix on in good spot to take a step forward as he returns to grass after stumbling at the start on the main track last time. BATS CLEANUP has had a couple of good trips in a row that he couldn’t really do much with vs. better horses; class drop makes sense for horse who is unlikely to find the right field at that level this time of the year. RISKY SOUR a tough like at 0-31 on the way in, but he has been unlucky more than once along the way, and has run some races that would be good enough vs. this field; new gelding for 5yo debut, which comes with a trainer change. DANNY’S RUSH getting a needed drop in class for this, and he is a contender, though his races are pretty uninspiring, overall.

EIGHTH RACE

OFFERING PLAN was frequently unlucky while winning just one of his five starts last year, but he ran well in all of them ,and he returned from the layoff with a new top figure while strongly closing down pace-setting KING KREESA; wouldn’t want him at too short of a price in this field, but he fits, and that good effort last time may go overlooked a bit with DISCO PARTNER making his return here. GET JETS bred for turf and making the most of it since switching over at the end of last year; just too good for that field last time, and will find this tougher, but he’s a good horse, and something like that strong closing effort two make would give him a look. DISCO PARTNER trying to stretch it out a bit following world record performance in the Jaipur last month; the flat mile doean’t have to be beyond his scope, question is: how short of a price to you want to take him at? GRAND ARCH tough here if he can re-find his top form, which seemed to elude him from limited starts last year; always fires fresh.

NINTH RACE

MR. PETE appeared to be well-meant for debut when getting bet into a Pletcher favorite, but he proceeded to badly compromise his chances at the start, before finishing up well all through the stretch to make some ground; appears to have landed in a pretty solid field for the level here, but he may be tough to down if he has learned some lessons from that first one. COLLECTIVE EFFORT also appeared to be well-meant for his debut when taking plenty of money in what turned out to be a strong race; had no excuses in that spot, but the winner looks pretty good. BAD GUY settled at 10-1 when all was said and done, but seemed like a lot of money for him to be taking in that field first time out, and he then proceeded to race on well while chasing the pace all the way; trainer has struggled here, but this horse could easily imprve enough to be a factor.

TENTH RACE

LADY BERGEN will have to improve to defeat what appears to be a solid field for the level, but she seems eligible to do so after that first start back, which she really appeared to need after making a short lead in the stretch and then flattening out; flashed some potential as a 2yo, and has apparently been privately purchased since that last one. SPRING FOLLY went well through a tough trip on debut, and had a gate incident in the interim, but she returned to dominate a field of overmatched maidens over this distance last time; upside. LOVER’S KEY won three straight with the addition of blinkers down in Florida, and looked good doing

SCRATCH BOARD

Here are the horses entered today who have been scratched in the last 45 days and have not raced since the scratch. Definitions: Off the turf: Turf race switched to main track. Trainer: Any scratch made by a trainer, including ones for weather, medical issues, a decision not to run in a stakes race, a horse entered back the next racing day, or a conditional entry (i.e., main track only for a turf race). Vet: Injury or illness. Steward: Administrative issues like medication and eligibility. it for sharp trainer; good effort last time when just dueled down late by a talented horse in $100k Stallion Series race.

ELEVENTH RACE

RED KNIGHT had his debut rained off to a sloppy main track, but he always traveled well in that spot before just missing an unlucky bob on the wire to a heavy favorite; half to the talented multiple turf stakes winner Macagone won’t have to improve much on this surface. YOU LIKE THAT got in too tough in $100k Stallion Series race last time, and did himself no favors by running into the rail midway through the race, but he had run better than it appears in his two grass starts prior to that, and is a price worth including somewhere. ZONIC a disappoinment on dirt, but has a pedigree to move up on grass, and has been trying to make the switch recently without success. APPEALING BRIEFS logical returning the the NY-bred ranks after holding his own vs. better down in Florida; good effort when falling just short of front-running winner vs. this kind last November.