ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

Those were some OK tries for SALUTE LILLIAN in her last few and that included turf and a layoff. We like that connections want this same distance and that they jump this mare in class. She did go favored last out. What if she actually needed that race? Class jump makes us think so. TOO MUCH TO BEAR is your big chalk due to connections and class drop. TOOMUCH has won at this distance. Rail draw is a small knock. If everyone stays in, the price will entice.

SECOND RACE

LIGHT BOUND BID ran OK on the turf only three back and that was his first turf try. Follow up tries are even better so this guy is going in the right direction. We don’t think this race came up very tough so give us an in form runner that is trying the turf for the second time everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. RED FERN has some speed and lures Eramia. Class drop will attract a lot of cash. SPEEDY HUNTUR gets good race flow and draws inside to save some early ground. This gelding did break his maiden on this sod.

THIRD RACE

GRAND FAIS DO DO is just better around two turns and that makes her recent 7 furlong try a simple prep for this. Penchant for second or just unlucky? We’ll go for door number 2 Monty. CODAS LADY just missed last out and that was her first on this dirt. Race flow is fine. She went favored last out for a reason. A win today would be of little surprise. AMAZING BELLA has some speed. She has yet to get an early breather. The pace play as we think she might get it today.

FOURTH RACE

HATTIE MAE NOT is going to be a price first and foremost. She has some speed and draws the attack post for the distance all while getting in light. Second time this distance is another plus. Wire please. FANTASY FRILLS got a 41 Beyer at this distance only three back. A nice middle move in her recent turf route before tiring late. Rail draw a small knock. CLEVIUS gets more distance today. She shouldn’t be that far off whomever guns for the front end. Grinding style might work better today.

FIFTH RACE

LDN BLUE CASCADE cans talk a nice trip just like he did two back. Short rest is fine with us as this barn shows a flat bet profit doing so. TY DIESEL got a 55 Beyer only two back. How tough was that recent field if this gelding went off at 22-1? A jock switch to help shake things up. SIDE’S SONG looks quickest. Timeform early pace rating agrees with us. A front end win only two back. We think his main pace foe is FORE GONE CONCLUSION.

SIXTH RACE

UNREAL BABY tried a turf route in her debut and it came at Saratoga. Folks, nothing is tougher. She may not be good enough for the NYRA circuit but this is certainly not that. Nothing wrong with her maiden breaker on this dirt three back. We thought her most recent would be better but at least win rider in Nieves returns. We rather like the move to the turf today. Notice that this filly remains in a spot where she can’t be claimed. FLY INTO MISCHIEF has proven turf speed and draws inside. Lone two turn turf try was a win. Her turf breeding is very good. It seems this barn can do no wrong (Brinkman). JAVIERA is by a 10% debut turf sire. Her dam went 2-0-0-0 on the green. Lone turf sib missed the board in lone turf try. NATIVE WAHOO is by a 8% debut turf sire. Her dam went 6-0-1-1 for 8K. Two sibs lost on the grass but one hit the board.

SEVENTH RACE

STUMP did break his maiden at Oaklawn. He tried tougher in his follow up try and actually ran OK for a half before calling it a day. It hints at true ability. Maybe he was getting acclimated to here 2 and 3 back. A nice win last out. Here comes another off the pace try as that is what this jockey does best. INAGENT has some speed. Maybe he needed that try two back while routing the excuse in his most recent. CASE’S TICKET can fire fresh. Kevin Smith is a 10% jockey but that jumps to 21% when riding for Denise Schmidt.