ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, PROUD REUNION

FIRST RACE

FOR GOODNESS SAKE faded late in her return from the layoff, then came forward to defeat a couple of these in minor stake second time back; prepped with wide run on the flat. SARAH JOYCE won first two starts of the year before fading behind FOR GOODNESS SAKE over soft ground last time. LADY YEATS won two of her last three starts in Europe prior to arriving, then improved to be 3rd after making the lead in a similar race second off the layoff; lost her rider last time.

SECOND RACE

HANSEN’S HELP tired as the favorite when dropped to this level off the layoff, but that wasn’t exactly an ideal situation while chasing a fast pace right off the bench; willing to give her one more in race where no one is that easy to trust. YONKA has much to overcome as she returns from an extended layoff, but this is the kind of race where you want to be open to horses like her, and this race represents a huge class drop when compared to her only other start on dirt. IWISHIRISH came up short in her 2yo finale at Remingotn Park, and she closed ground too late once again in her first start off the layoff; likely to be outrun from the rail before trying to get into it at the end. LOVE YOU DEARLY contested the pace with even-money favorite Miss Pearl before tiring in the stretch of her Finger Lakes debut; drops with blinkers on for a sharp trainer.

THIRD RACE

HOGY couldn’t get involved in wickedly fast Jaipur last time, but you only have to go back three starts in his form to find him closing down Green Mask in a Fair Grounds stake; has run the best races overall, and should have enough pace to give him a fair chance. BIG ROCK tracked along behind a rejuvenated, and loose, Dowse’s Beach last time, before coming to take a shot off the turn, and ultimately being turned away; won both of his starts here last year and his rateable style fits this race well. ANGRY MOON may need one off the layoff, but he is underrated on both surfaces, and has the kind of early speed to make himself dangerous if he breaks and is taken lightly.

FOURTH RACE

DEUCES HIGH clearly not a horse you can fully trust to show up with a representative effort, but that’s the case with several horses in this field at shorter prices, as well, and there are some things to like about him. Wet track or not, he ran a very good race over this course and distance last year while setting a legitimate pace, and he was badly compromised while racing wide over a strong inside track prior to the most recent layoff; second back with speed in a field where it is hard to trust anyone. Unlike just about everyone else in this field, BECKER’S GALAXY is reliable, and he also happens to be capable of a race that would make him very tough in this spot; hasn’t done his best work over this kind of distance, but he is back to the level of the claim now for trainer having a strong meet from limited starters. GOOD LUCK GUS won the Albany up here as a 3yo, but he is another who may not exactly relish this longer distance; being offered up for $40k off the layoff after ending 2016 with a pair of subpar efforts, though he was big prices bith times.

FIFTH RACE

DREAMS ARE PAZIBLE had the pedigree to make the switch to turf last time, but she didn’t exactly improve much from her tough-trip debut while landing 3rd behind a pair of fillies who might both turn out okay; drops with the experience, and her first start, as mentioned, is better than it looks. LADY BLESSINGS appears to be working well into her first start and attracts Castellano for trainer