ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, TIZZELLE

FIRST RACE

BURKEY’S BABE got pushed in at the start of his Belmont debut, which left him behind drop down winner Easy Way Out early, and he wound up blocked at the top of the stretch before getting clear and racing on; may not have to improve much from that effort for trainer pulling strong numbers with second time-starting maidens (past five years, maiden, second start, dirt sprint: 9 for 30, 30%, $2.79 ROI, and 4 for his last 7 year with a $7.50 ROI). SAND CITY faced some solid MSW competition as a 2yo, and she couldn’t get to a front-running winner after a good trip when dropped to this level last time; that race came back fast with a 79 Beyer for the winner, but it remains to be seen whether that figure turns out to be predictive going forward. QUICK ON THE DRAW has also faced better competition along the way, and she will drop for the first time here after catching slop in her return from a layoff. LUNA RISING finished 7th when dropped in class here opening weekend, but that effort was better than the ultimate placing would indicate as she was caught wide atfer a solid pace before taking a game run to challenge and tiring late in a race that eventually went to closers; drops again, this time in race appearing to lack for much other pace. BAHNAHNO posted a win and three 2nds from five dirt sprints at Aqueduct prior to the layoff, and since returning she has either been in too tough in allownace company, or raced over slop or turf; right spot, though she does not have much early speed. LITTLE MISS AMY has been more effective on turf to this point, and he trainer has not managed to keep his good Belmont run going up here, but she does have some speed to put into play as she drops in claiming price.

THIRD RACE

HARDENED making 3yo debut off a long layoff after showing speed and fading in his debut last fall in a fast race behind the talented Takaful; starting back with strong line up of works show- ing, and he is bred to be better on this surface. SWITZERLAND has now lost three times as an odds-on favorite for Chad, and while he hasn’t exactly been as disappointing as one might imagine in those races after getting caught in a pair of fast duels to start, and then appearing to hate that sloppy track last time, it’s rarely a good idea to make too many excuses as those kinds of odds; bred for turf, and his speed is going to make him very tough here, assuming he transfers it to grass. SETHARY improved noticeably on turf last time to take over on the pace before the stretch, only to be gunned doen by repeat winner Rate for Me in the later stages; facing pretty tough cut back from the seven at Belmont to the 5.5 here, but he’s a threat if he can handle it.

FOURTH RACE

STARLITE MISSION one of three exiting July race for this division downstate that was taken by a good-looking winner, along with CARTWHEEL and MY ROXY GIRL, and the three of them were separated by a half-length on the wire. STARLITE MISSION was caught on the outside all the way that day, and was forced to come around very wide to the stretch, before gamely getting up for 2nd, and she has returned to put up another solid breeze since arriving here. PAUSEFORTHECAUSE a first time starter with a nice pedigree for trainer off to a strong start to the meet, though his first time starters can be tough reads; dam was a multiple stakes winner on dirt in her career. CARTWHEEL got bet in that first start, but she may have needed that race while coming wide to the stretch along with STARLITE MISSION, and then racing on gamely to the finish; threat to improve quickly. MY