ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, DEVILISH ROMANCE

FIRST RACE

HISTRIONIC rates a narrow edge in the opener based on her fine overall form in turf sprints. She has a win, a third, a fourth, and a close sixth (with a troubled trip) in four starts going five eighths on the grass; winning trainer in her corner. CLASSIC CHARLOTTE faces winners for the first time after swooping to victory in a maiden claimer in the slop following a slow start; owns a race-best 63 Beyer sprinting five eighths on the lawn, though that is an outlier among her overall numbers. LADY GREATNESS finished in front of the top choice when second July 15 but her 25-1-4-4 record makes her difficult to endorse as a win play. Given her history, she seems best focused underneath in the gimmicks.

SECOND RACE

Typically not keen to back first timers breaking from the fence - they often break slowly or inwardly - but there is so little to this maiden field and BABY I’M PERFECT has been firing bullets; acts talented and Happy Alter owned-bred runners are often promising. MR. MISERABLE is a candidate to improve, though he certainly needs to improve to win after a non-threatening fourth in a turf sprint in his first career start; now shifts to the dirt but bred for the surface switch. OUTSTANDING DEBT is the only horse in the race with a Beyer in the 60s, having run a 61 when rallying to be third July 14. That came in a maiden claimer, however, and now he is stepping up into the straight maiden ranks.

THIRD RACE

DEVILISH ROMANCE stands out on current form and joins a barn hitting at a 31% strike rate with first-after-claim runners; plenty of pack to set up her stalking rally. HOLD THAT KITTEN has run second in three straight races since her maiden win, most recently finishing 3 1/2 lengths behind the top choice after setting the pace. ATHERA surprised with a 21-1 victory July 23 after failing to threaten in two prior turf starts; certainly tough if she runs back to her latest, but more likely for a minor award if she reverts to her prior form, either established on turf or dirt.

FOURTH RACE

Most of these have shown little or are first timers...so going with the horse with the most perceived upside: HE’S A LEADER. Bet down to 3-1 first out, he broke poorly and never got involved, but he starts for a barn that is winning a 24% clip with second timer starts - plus he drops in class. WIZARD WILLIE has a successful trainer/jockey combo in his corner in Fawkes and Gaffalione (25% at GP in 2016-2017), though they tend to be heavily bet, as reflected in the $1.66 ROI; quick recent works from this first timer but by just a $1,500 sire in Gary D, who was only a minor stakes winner at OBS. ZING ZING is another first timer and has win-early connections but has no published works longer than four furlongs leading up to his debut, and that drill was moderate.

FIFTH RACE

Late-running BITACORA was unfortunate to catch slow paces in her last two starts in stakes company - and yet still ran very well with a second against Florida-breds and a fourth in an open stake; now runs vs. starter horses and seemingly catches more pace to aid her late charge; nod in a closely matched group. VENDITA rattled off four in a row from February through early May before a fourth, a fifth, and another fourth in three subsequent starts; still ran competitively in those races despite the losses but was just facing some challenging foes and drew poorly toward the outside; Gaffalione lands here. CAJUN QUEEN gets a pass for finishing second last out in an off-the-turf race in the slop. Her preferred surface is grass, over which she has compiled a 5-for-13 record, though vs. softer; well drawn in post one.

SIXTH RACE

Going with the one horse in the field with expe-

rience in this straight maiden lineup: REAGAN’S

ROSE, who ran second first out after setting the pace...that run may offset perhaps the fact that others in the field may have more long-term promise. SLEWYS CHOSEN ONE is a fast-working first timer that went 48 flat out of the gate at Palm Meadows; also drilled five eighths at Palm Meadows in 1:00 for five furlongs. Another firster,

HOMEMADE SALSA, is by one of the top sires in the race in Two Step Salsa and was quick enough to work five furlongs from the gate here at Gulf in 59 4/5; Maker trainees tend to so better once they’ve started a time or two, though.

SEVENTH RACE

THINKIN COWTOWN comes off a victory in a shorter five-furlong dash, but is a versatile filly that won as far as 1 1/16 miles last summer; doubt she will regress on the stretch out to 7 1/2 furlongs. WILD CHATTER crossed the wire second last out but was placed first via disqualification of another rival that bumped her; a winner of 4 of 14 on turf but twice fourth in two starts against Florida-bred first-level allowance competition. STORMIN CHARLOTTE ran a flashy 77 Beyer in winning a $10,000 claimer last out, showing a new dimension by rallying from well off the pace after previously being a frontrunning type; Jaramillo takes the reins with Gaffalione on WILD CHATTER.

EIGHTH RACE

SILVER SHALIS has performed well in all three starts, whether it has been on dirt or on turf; twice second over his short career. VISIONS OF YOU has been managed like a turf horse to this point, but is entered for the dirt after running second with a 63 Beyer in the slop in a race taken off the turf July 21; up in class off the claim. MO BOURBON is a rare fresh face in Florida this winter, coming here by way of Churchill Downs, where she was twice fourth in maiden claimers there; fits on class and figures but a little concerned that former trainer Eddie Kenneally was so quick to put him in for a tag in just his second start.

NINTH RACE

SIR SEBASTIAN is a stakes-placed 3-year-old that seems back on his game again after a third in a starter race most recently; now dropped in for $30,000 claiming; 9-3-0-2 on the turf. TERRY’S CHARM owns consistently the highest Beyers but has a history of minor awards, though most of his starts have come against classier allowance foes. KATY’S COOPER won three back against statebred maidens but has since been outrun in two starts vs. Florida-bred allowance company; well drawn and poised to get a favorable stalking trip.