ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, MILLIES PARTY BOY

FIRST RACE

LUCKY LOTTO facing several dropping in class for the opener, but he is one of the few in the field not exiting a disappointing performance, and he has proven to be an effective sprinter since turned back recently; Handel underrated off the claim and he reached back in after having this horse briefly in the spring. COCKED AND LOADED was re-claimed by Rivelli at first opportunity after finishing no-threat 4th in fastpaced sprint back in May; hasn’t been seen since, and it’s not a great sign that he makes his reappearance for $12.5k after being taken for $50k, but he will be hard on this field if bringing anything close to his best. SET THE TRAPPE won first two off the claim for trainer who was on a good run downstate, and he had little chance in shorter Parx sprint that featured no closing last time; can pull the right trip, but Diodoro hasnot been nearly as effective up here, so far.

SECOND RACE

GOLDEN ORB is a half to the excellent dirt sprinter Finley’ s lucky charm, but she is also from the family of the very good turf horse Pure Clan (multiple Grade 1 wins on grass), and Clement is among the best in this game with first time starters on turf, especially up here (past five years, 2yo firster on turf, Saratoga, 6 for 17, 35%, $5.10 ROI). WILD AND FUNNY debuted in a stakes race sprinting on synthetic, and she was along late for 2nd behind the fleet Dream It Is, who was last seen demolishing the Schuylerville up here with an 89 Beyer; Kitten’s Joy filly out of dam who was a graded stakes winner on grass is bred to stretch out on this surface. ESCAPADE debuted sprinting and she was finishing gamely once coming fully clear late in the stretch to get up for 2nd; stretches out for Pletcher, who is 3 for 4 with his 2yos on turf at the meet.

THIRD RACE

BREAKING LUCKY may still start in the Grade 1 Whitney on Saturday, but as of now his status is undecided and dependent on the weather, as he does not like a wet track; can be inconsistent, but his good race - which he brought up here when a close 4th in the Woodward last year - makes him too tough for these, if he elects to wait for this spot. CONQUEST WINDYCITY never panned out for his prior connections following a promising start, but he has improved since tranferring to his current trainer; has positional speed to put into play as he looks to rebound from flat performance in the Cornhusker. RALLY CRY earned career best 105 Beyer two back before taking a shot at the Met Mile; stretch out to the two-turn nine furlongs up here figures to push his limits, but he is as talented as anyone in here, and he benefits should BREAKING LUCKY wind up running Saturday. MOHAYMEN was an early developer, but he never got any better after winning his first five career starts, four of them in graded stakes; back to the main track with new blinkers after failed turf experiment, but he can’t win this based on his recent dirt form.

FOURTH RACE

MILLIES PARTY BOY back in with NY-breds after making 3yo debut vs. a much tougher group, and racing on late after proving to be no match for those horses; interested to see if he can now backup that excellent debut run at the end of last year, where he ran a winning race while sweeping around that field with a five-wide run to take over, only to be outfinished late. SUMMER MISCHIEF made turf debut in sprint that featured a fast pace, but he was unlucky there while staying in for the stretch run and getting caught in traffic until it was too late; stretches out from nice inside post. APPEALING BRIEFS held his own in open company races over the winter, and he was only second best after a nice trip last time, though the horse that beat him looks pretty good; horse to

beat, but perhaps not by much. HOBOE came around the outside while APPEALING BRIEFS was saving the ground, and he finished gamely to close ground into 3rd last time; much better turf horse.

FIFTH RACE

COZZY SPRING has to transfer to turf, but she has enough pedigree to do it (dam was a winner sprinting on grass and is a sister to the good turf sprinter Desert Steel), and her speed figures to play well in this field if she can bring it over; impressive win last time when speeding clear on a fast pace and then staying gamely late to turn away the closers. ANOTHER GENIUS has to be ready off the layoff, but she is lightly-raced and starting back in the right kind of field after winning both of her turf sprints last year. FIRE KEY got loose on the lead over yielding ground when popping big new top figure two starts back, but she did not back that race up very well while tracking a modest pace last time; best game is sprinting on turf, but she has to do better here.

SIXTH RACE

EVERYBODY LOVES ME brought a big ticket after working a quick 9.4 at OBS in April, and she has some pedigree being by the speedy sire Maclean’s Music, and out of a winning dam who is a sister to this year’s Arkansas Derby runnerup Conquest Mo Money; needs a scratch to get in. HONEY GRAEME a half to three winners from her stakes-winning dam, and she will debut for Rick Violette, who is among the best in this game with 2yo first time starters in dirt sprints; expect her to be ready. MY BRONX TAIL the first foal from her dam, who finished 1st in the first three starts of her career, including a Grade 3 stakes, and is a fullsister to the talented sprinter Kauai Katie, who also won the first three starts of her career, including the Grade 2 Schuylerville over this track; Mott won’t crank them up, but she is bred to be more forward.

SEVENTH RACE

BAR NONE one of several dropping in class to try this two-life claimer which came up very tough for the level; two best races of his career have come in his only two attempts sprinting on dirt, including that return from a long layoff in June where he was racing on late behind the talented Coal Front after a slow start. MAY BE A DIAMOND improved to run three fast races off the trainer change early last year; drops for the first time showing line up of good works on the way back. DIAMOND JIM has speed from the rail as he takes the drop for Pletcher; that speed didn’t play on turf last time, but he’ll be tough if he can clear from the inside early.

EIGHTH RACE

SHIRAZ took over on a fast pace sprinting last time, and he stayed gamely in the stretch before weakening late and falling to the closers; last two tries routing on turf have come vs. stakes horses in Florida. Forget ODE TO THE HUNT’s last two races on dirt, he is starting back on the right surface as a new gelding after running better than it looks in his turf races last year; have to tread a bit lightly with horse who is 0-10 in this condition on grass, but he is better than that record indicates. STORM PROPHET closed into a good pace to make the lead in the stretch, and just failed to hold in his first start off the layoff and first for Linda Rice, while former Rice trainee E J’S LEGACY chased that pace and weakened late settling for 3rd.

NINTH RACE

STORMY’S SONG made an impressive debut sprinting in June after breaking from the inside, though it remains to be seen how good that field is, then cut the pace on the stretch out last time and weakened late; like her turning back. SHE PLAYS THE FIELD has faced better horses than her stablemate, and thought she actually ran well last time behind the talented Downtown Mama in a race that may be better than the figure makes it look; loses Rosario to STORMY’S SONG. LIBBY’S TAIL made an impressive debut sprinting last summer before moving into stakes company for her next four starts, including a near-miss in the Grade 1 Frizette; layoff the concern, but she may not have to improve much in 3yo debut to take this. TASTEFUL narrowly out-finished SHE PLAYS THE FIELD for 2nd in her debut, then came with a big run from last to overpower maidens at Keeneland on a day her trainer was especially live, winning four races total, including a pair of graded stakes.

TENTH RACE

PURE SENSATION was out-finished late in supersonic Jaipur, but only after he ripped off a fast pace and turned away a couple of challengers in underappreciated performance, and he then returned to crush that field in the Parx Dash with a 110 Beyer; speed may give him a slight edge in this race. GREEN MASK has lost some races he easily could have, and in some cases even should have, won, but he appears to be an improved horse this year, and he never looked better than he did last time when closing down that Grade 2 on his own power; excellent try in that Jaipur with Castellano waiting as along as he possibly could to push the button. HOLDING GOLD also ran very well in the Jaipur, which was a nice bounce back effort after failing to punch it in along the rail one start prior; closed down GREEN MASK on the square in the Shakertown off the layoff and he has winning experience over this course and distance.

ELEVENTH RACE

OTTO couldn’t get up when dropped back to this level last time, but he was wide throughout that race, while the two finishing in front of him stayed inside all the way; good post to save some ground this time. ESCAPE VELOCITY wasn’t done any favors winding up in post 12, but he is taking a huge class drop for this, and may simply be too good for these horses if he can work out a trip. STEAMBOAT BILL received a needed drop to this level last time, and he ran a winning race while chasing down the pace, only to be run down late in effort representing a step in the right direction.