ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, CRUMLIN SPIRIT

FIRST RACE

SOUPER FLY OVER was second to a fast-working first-timer, with a substantial gap back to the third-place finisher, in a quick seven-furlong maiden special July 21. The son of Ghostzapper should make short work of the opposition in this six-furlong event. After a three-wide stalking trip, LETTHEBIGHOSSROLL faded to finish a distant third in the aforementioned maiden special. MORE PERFECT worked well with the talented Bet On Mike the other day.

SECOND RACE

CRUMLIN SPIRIT finished on the edges in recent stakes behind the likes of the future stakes winners Minks Aprise, Jennifer Lynnette and Niigon’s Eclipse. She’s obviously a good fit in this NW3 tilt for OS allowance stock and $40K claimers. TRINI BREWNETTE placed in two of her three races at this level since returning from a long layoff, and should be a factor with blinkers on. BELLA FIGURA is descending from second-level optional-claiming company to compete with a tag for the first time since graduating in September.

THIRD RACE

BIG YUM improved significantly last time in his second race off the bench, when a lapped-on third for $32K. His last victory came in front-running style Nov. 20, and he should be dangerous racing near the lead here on the stretchout from seveneighths to a mile and a sixteenth. BEST BARD exits a respectable fourth in a difficult $40K starter allowance won by Eminent Force, who came back to beat N2X/$62.5K rivals. Hernandez takes over on the durable veteran. NIIGON’S GLORY is back on the grass following a subpar showing against tougher on the Tapeta. Use him on the bottom of vertical bets, along with AULT.

FOURTH RACE

CANADIAN CLASS is halving in value after an extended layoff, and has fired while fresh in the past. SIGNATURE HEART ran fourth in both of his attempts at this $20K NW2 class, and was only beaten a length most recently after a four-wide trip. A hot Contreras picks up the mount on the Sid Attard trainee. VINTAGE TIME came from far off fast splits to finish second last time in a $10K route. He resides in a live barn, and could run big on the turnback to a long sprint. WARDO rallied from well off slow fractions over an anti-speed track to beat $12.5K maidens in his latest.

FIFTH RACE

BERNOTCHIE, a $775K 2yo purchase, is by a top but turf negative sire, Bernardini. His dam won on the grass, and she dropped a turf stakes winner. EL TORMENTA is by the superb grass sire Stormy Atlantic, and his dam produced two turf debut winners. The Sam-Son Farm homebred has worked over three different surfaces. ADIOS MUCHACHO just missed after a stalking trip when moving to the turf for his third trip postward. FOLLOW MY LEAD came on belatedly for second when debuting on the green. ROSE’S VISION drew poorly on the outside, but has worked encouragingly for a trainer who can have one ready.

SIXTH RACE

STARINTHEMAKING came wide from off fast fractions to lose by a neck when he dropped to $16K three weeks ago. He’s descending to a new low in this longer route, while retaining leading rider Da Silva. RED BO is plunging from a key $32K turf tilt to compete on the Tapeta for the first time in his first race as a gelding. THE DOCTOR is another dropper who could have a say in the outcome. Use FINE GRIT underneath in tri and super wagers.