ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, BIG GILLETTE

FIRST RACE

SALIERI fought for the lead along the rail before tiring when debuting in what looks to be a key maiden special July 21, from which the runner-up exited to romp. The drop to $40K coupled with the turnback from seven to five furlongs could enable him to lead all the way here under Campbell. ROBUSTIOUS was knocking on the door before a flat fifth-place finish as the lukewarm favorite three weeks ago. BEN LOMOND broke a tad slowly before closing belatedly for fourth last time in his second start with Lasix.

SECOND RACE

HEY HOWIE wasn’t beaten very far for second when a distant fourth at first asking in a July 19 maiden special won by Be Vewy Vewy Quiet, who subsequently took the Clarendon Stakes with a 78 Beyer. The drop to $40K is significant, and his trainer does okay with maiden second-timers. TREBEK is shedding the hood while exiting maiden special company on the grass. This jockey/trainer combo scored with a similar 2yo dropper last Monday. AIN’T MY FAULT, by a 13% 2yo debut sire, is the first foal from a useful miler.

THIRD RACE

AWESOME AT LAST prevailed in a front-end battle before giving way grudgingly to end up second for the second straight time a month ago. SAMMY FROM MIAMI also dominated the front-end proceedings in his latest, on May 13, before fading to third in the final sixteenth. He’s worked quickly leading up to this $8K dash. EVELYN G raced wide throughout when eighth in her $20K opener, which contained two authoritative next-out winners.

FOURTH RACE

MALIBU BLISS is halving in price off a distant second going this seven-furlong distance on the Tapeta. The daughter of top sire Malibu Moon should take some beating with Hernandez retaining the mount. BLUE PEARLS is also plunging from $20K, as is SHEEGWEEHA, who could wake up in her third start. Toss THAT’S CLAIRE in the super.

FIFTH RACE

With the rail out in lane 5, UNBRIDLED PIPER raced at least four-wide all the way while rallying belatedly to finish a close fifth last out in his third race off the bench. He should be competitive at a square price with Contreras back in the tack. MR HAVERCAMP romped at first asking in a seven-furlong maiden special on the Tapeta, and the favored runner-up came right back to graduate by four lengths with a 79 Beyer. The promising son of Court Vision shouldn’t mind the surface change, and should make some noise as an underlay. CLEVER SOUL just missed in an easier turf tilt July 7, when he was claimed for $20K by a trainer who excels with new shooters. Use him on the bottom of vertical wagers, along with CENAR.

SIXTH RACE

BEL AIR SKY, who was a vet scratch July 30, has worked quickly for a trainer who can have one ready. The son of good 16% 2yo debut sire Malibu Moon is a half-brother to Canadian champion sprinter Stacked Deck, a G2 winner, and stakesplaced Valentino Beauty. PEPPERED has been working fast, and is debuting with blinkers and Lasix. WAM BAM was a $435K yearling purchase by the popular Uncle Mo. His dam produced 2yo stakes winner Spadina Road and stakes-placed Casa Loma. MIDRAY’s last two half-mile gate drills were decent. The son of Midnight Lute is bred to run on.

SEVENTH RACE

HURRICANE BEAR was blocked behind rivals for most of the stretch en route to finishing fifth when going long for the first time on turf July 16. He was previously a lapped-on third in his much-improved second start. AMI’S EXCHANGE awaited room on the turn before making up a little ground to end up sixth behind the top pick in the aforementioned event. ZAP CAT placed in each of his last two outings going a mile and a sixteenth on the grass. SILENT JIMMIE, a son of excellent turf sire Silent Name, made the board in seven of his eight starts, all in sprints on the Tapeta.

EIGHTH RACE

ARE YOU KIDDING ME is probably at his best traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the Tapeta, and will get to ply his trade in this G3 stakes, in which he finished a lapped-on second to Breaking Lucky last year. UNBRIDLED JUAN comes off a troubled/close fourth in the G2 King Edward on the grass. He was previously third behind the top pick in back-toback mile and a sixteenth Tapeta tilts, including the G2 Eclipse. MELMICH rallied five-wide to win the slow-paced Dominion Day Stakes by daylight. Note that he ran third in this fixture last year, when turning back off a win in the G3 Dominion Day.

NINTH RACE

BET ON MIKE saved ground in sixth on the turn before closing in the five-path to lose his recent turf debut by just a half-length to the hard-knocking veteran OCCASIONAL VIEW. Both should be prominent in this shorter sprint, and this is BET ON MIKE’s second start as a gelding. UNCLE B was along for second the only time he tried the grass in a five-furlong stakes for 3yos in February at Gulfstream. He’s since placed in two six-furlong stakes for sophomores. Use him underneath in the exotics, along with the flashy CALL ME WALLY.

TENTH RACE

GRAY PHANTOM was overmatched last time in open $20K company, and is meeting easier in this $20K NW3 sprint. His trainer has phenomenal numbers first-time off the claim, but his stats with turnbacks are mediocre. CORRYVRECHAN dusted $20K NW2 types last time going five-eighths. The tiny chestnut is hard to gauge on the stretchout to seven furlongs. YORK RANGER weakened late after setting sleepy fractions in his latest. He’s better racing from off the pace, and wouldn’t be much of a surprise. Use NORRIS LAKE on the bottom of intra-race bets.

ELEVENTH RACE

BIG GILLETTE won his last three outings on turf and Tapeta with three different riders, while scaling the value ladder. He can keep his roll going in this N1X on the grass, with Contreras back aboard after a one-race break. MALIBU SECRET has worked nicely since finishing up the track after a four-wide stalking trip in the July 2 Queen’s Plate. Note that he ran second to the talented Channel Maker the only time he tried the turf in his debut at 2 in a restricted stakes. MARTINI KID closed wide from off slow splits for fourth in perhaps his best performance July 16. COURT SAVVY just missed last time in an easier N1X won by Ault, who returned to finish fourth behind Best Bard for $40K.