ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, HELLUVA CHOICE

FIRST RACE

HERE AND THERE failed to factor late when dropped to this level last time, but he lost his best chance when bumped early and forced to steady out to the back in a race that was dominated up front; has a race that would contend here for underrated trainer, and he can keep closer if catching a clean start this time. SILVER ASSAULT is going to be very tough to beat if he brings his best race, but that may enough in question to take a shot against him as he immediately drops to the bottom following a non-effort off the layoff; good post with some speed. CANIFORM a closing sprinter who would appreciate seeing SILVER ASSAULT going fast early and then finding that he can’t run anymore in the stretch; was gaining late last time, but so was everyone else in that field.

SECOND RACE

RAPT cuts back to a better distance for him after trying to stretch it out vs. a better field last time; improved up here last summer before winning his final two starts on the year, and fired a good one to close that race down two starts back. AIR VICE MARSHAL has disappointed a bit since arriving stateside with some group form behind him, but he did catch a pretty soft turf course two back on a day when the races were ultimately cancelled, and he earned a solid figure despite being only 2nd-best last time; do wonder what his best distance will ultimately be. KANTUNE was ahead of AIR VICE MARSHAL and gaining late on an exhausted leader over that tiring turf course back in June, and he came right back to wire a field on a class drop in his next start; has the speed to control this race from the start, unless one of the first-time-turfers in the field comes out running. Interested to see what EXULTING does as he tries grass for the first time as he has shown flashes of real ability, but there isn’t much pedigree to go on; gelding him may bring about a turnaround in form, as he has been a bit of a rogue on the track.

THIRD RACE

MAGICAL SKY raced greenly but finished gamely before falling just short in her career debut, and she improved in that last one while coming with a good finish from last behind the talented Durable Goods; tries to break through for barn that has really struggled up here. COMPLICIT rallied into a pace that gave way over soft Aqueduct turf in lone start last year, and she improved in her 3yo debut while gaining gtound all through the stretch; added distance may really suit her. BODIE’S VALENTINE was rated along at the back of the field as a heavily favored winner controlled the pace in her debut, but she finished up well while splitting horses two different times in the stretch, and then carried on past the finish of that race; tough post, but she can easily improve enough to win this.

FOURTH RACE

CHUBBY MASTER drops a bit after chasing in a tougher field up here opening weekend; good fit here, and he had enough trouble in the running to be considered unlucky in each of his first two starts off the layoff. MONTE MAN exits that same $25k race from July 23rd, and he wound up getting filtered out to the back of that field early after getting up close early; gets another chance as he drops a bit in class. FORTUITOUS PATH will win this easily with one of his good races, but expecting one of those may not be reasonable following pair of last place finishes in his only two starts this year; big class drop. NONEEDTOFLATTERME found the right spot and got the right trip and ride to prevail last time with a new top figure; trainer does a good job overall, but is just 1 for 33 with last out winners over the past couple of years.

FIFTH RACE

LAYLA NOOR remained in debut that was rained off the grass, and thought she ran pretty well there while never looming a real threat; can benefit from

that experience as she switches back to grass and stretches out, which she is bred to do, at least on the dam-side, as she is out of a stakes-winning mare, and from the family of the excellent turf router Owsley who made over $865k going long on grass in her career. Chad Brown wins plenty of these races with first time starters (past five years, 2yo first time starter, turf route: 26 for 98, 27%, $3.50 ROI), but he hasn’t had much success up here over the past couple of years; his FOOLS

GOLD is bred for this being by a top sire and out of a dam who was graded stakes placed on grass.

SWEET OFFER a full-sister to the talented Sidney’s Candy, as well as the excellent turf sprinter Sweet Swap; like the top one she gained experience in that race rained off the turf earlier in the meet, and she appeared to need a run while racing greenly in that spot.

SIXTH RACE

IN JAIL earned an underwhelming figure for her Laurel debut, but liked that run from her as she showed fine tactical speed and took a game run at an impressive winner (Jehozacat is a full-sister to the talented Divining Rod) before settling for 2nd-best; prefer her experience in this kind of race, and taking it as a good sign that she ships up here for her second start. PURRFECT MISS was a big price in her debut up here opening day, and she took a big run at the lead in that race before ultimately being turned away by Southampton Way, who returned to run 2nd in the Grade 2 Adirondack last weekend; hard to beat if improving upon that performance. GIBBET has a pedigree for turf on the face of it, and there is indeed plenty of grass in her family, but she is also a sister to a pair of graded stakes winners on dirt, and she debuts for a master first-out trainer. MIA D’ORO may be looking for more ground down the line, but she is training well for Asmussen, and she is a half to six winners from this dam, including the multiple Grade 1-winning 2yo Weemissfrankie.

SEVENTH RACE

MACHO MIAH has to tranfer to turf, but this may be a good spot to try in field containing plenty of pace for him to run at, and several horses who are questionable at this level; not much immediate pedigree for turf, but his sire is an influence, and he looked good winning off the layoff. WICKED MACHO got back to his good race in his turf debut last time, and did so despite steadying at the start to wind up last; should be going forward from the rail this time, though there is plenty of other pace in this race, especially if the first time turf horses bring their speed over. NEW YORK’S FINEST was an impressive winner over course and distance to break his maiden as a 2yo, but didn’t get another chance before hitting the sidelines; dropped down to win last time with a competitive figure, but he cleared there without issue and there were no closers.

EIGHTH RACE

ROMANTIC MUSIC will get nothing if she shows up here with her most recent turf start, but she received a very passive ride in that race for some reason, and that is unlikely to be the case with this rider from the inside post; three turf starts earlier this year give her a big look. LILLIE’S ANSWER was also compromised a bit in that July 8th race where ROMANTIC MUSIC was a no-show, but she rebounded a bit to just miss to a repeat stakes winner when wheeled back just two days later down at Parx; faces claimers for the first time since clear-cut win back in February. MAGICIAN’S VANITY tough to take on top with 1 for 30 grass record, but she did get that lone win recently, and she ran well last time to get 2nd behind a frontrunning winner, albeit after a perfect trip and ride.

NINTH RACE

VERVE’S TALE and GOING FOR BROKE are familiar with each other from pair of matchups last year where they split decisions, with the former getting the win over this distance in the Grade 3 Comely. VERVE’S TALE started improving once stretched out in distance, including impressive KEE win before taking the Comely, and she has been in pretty tough so far this year. GOING FOR BROKE got in a nice prep off the layoff while firing through on the rail behind her talented stablemate; stretches right out to distance she won over up here last summer, though that was a race that went to closers, and still have the feeling that she might be better going a little shorter. RACHEL’S TEMPER was also a winner over course and distance last summer, that win coming one start after running GOING FOR BROKE to a nose decision; needs to get back to that kind of race second off the layoff.

TENTH RACE

HELLUVA CHOICE ran well in both NY turf sprints as a 2yo without winning, and he has improved since returning to grass for Asmussen; drop helps, and like the shorter sprints up here for him. STORMIN MACLEAN can also benefit from this shorter distance as he looks for first career win on grass; Rice aces off the claim with turf horses lately (past year, 7 for 16, 44%, $4.61 ROI, including 2 wins up here already). VENTRY BAY dropping and turning back for Ward as the blinkers come off; went well in debut over this trip last year.