ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, DWIZARD

FIRST RACE

KENTUCKY DANCER did not run her best races at Saratoga, but she was facing better up there, and she was against the track when chasing wide on Jim Dandy Day in the first of those; getting some class relief this time in a race with some speed for her to come after, and she did win each of her final two dirt sprints in Kentucky prior to shipping up impressively; one more chance. EVERYTHING MAGIC won three sprints in a row earlier in the year, before catching a muddy track at the end of May, and then getting in too tough in her next start; chased a dominant winner and was just out-finished for 2nd at this level last time. LIL RENEGADE a closer who is capable of pulling off an upset when circumstances align, and there is pace in this race for her to come after at a price; wasn’t winning but got jammed up on the rail in the late stages last time while still racing on.

SECOND RACE

LONE SENTRY got out to the clear in the stretch and rallied while still appearing to be putting things together out there in promising debut run upstate; well-bred colt figures tough if coming forward out of that race. WITCH DOCTOR also eligible ro improve quickly on grass as he is by a stallion who is off to a good start with turf runners, and is a half to the Grade 2 turf winner Celtic New Year out of a dam who is a sister to grass champion Perfect Sting; chased gamely in a fast race before tiring in the stretch of debut that was rained off. VOTING CONTROL a half to a runner who is currently 2-for-2 on grass debuting for Chad Brown, who has put up some strong numbers with 2yos debuting in turf routes at Belmont over the past few years (12 for his last 36, 33%, $4.88 ROI). BLOCKADE kept trying to get in a run upstate, but he never managed to find his way into a race; well-bred colt should be ready to go now. VICTOR LOUNGE brought $200k earlier this year, and he is a half to a pair of group winners in Europe for a dangerous first-out trainer.

THIRD RACE

DWIZARD failed to break sharply from the gate, but he put in a nice run through the turn while threeto-four wide to chase his talented and experienced stablemate My Boy Tate, and only weakened to lose 2nd in the late stages of promising debut run; half-brother to Grade 1 sprinters Paulassilverlining and Dads Caps has to break better this time from the rail. ROCK DOC ships in to face fellow NY-breds for the first time after beginning his career in California, where he debuted vs. Woody Stephens winner American Anthem; new trainer solid off of longer layoffs like this, and with new acquisitions. ZONIC sprinting for the first time as a 3yo, and switching from turf to dirt after making no headway on grass last time; just about out of chances, but like the try over a shorter distance for him. DEVILRY debuted on same race as the top one, and he was off poorly from the gate before racing greenly down on the rail throughout that race; may take a couple more.

FOURTH RACE

LUCULLAN improved noticeably to win his turf debut with a determined late run, and he backed that race up well while closing strongly too late at Saratoga; won’t have that kind of set up in this race, but that may not be a bad thing for him. HOMEWOOD FIELD looked good while finishing strong to break his maiden over this course two starts back, but he couldn’t find the same kind of late kick last time after being strongly rated in the early stages of that race; fact that he sat out the meet upstate suggests that there may have been a minor issue exiting that race. NEW YORK SONG facing tougher after running out of NY-bred conditions, but he is 3 for 3 since swithcing to turf following an extended layoff; would rather include him than a horse like AIR VICE MARSHAL, who has been a little disappointing since arriving from Europe.

FIFTH RACE

LADY LOVE a stab in a race where the known quantities have been failing to distinguish themselves while facing off several times already, but at least she is a well-bred one dropping in class; stretches out after putting in a mild, wide run through the turn sprinting in her debut. WISH UPON finished gamely after a front-running winner two starts back, and that trip didn’t exactly work out last time, as she wound up giving away too much early position before being forced wide on the turn; guess she can have one more chance. RECONSIDER IT fits at this level, where she ran well two starts back, albeit with that trip working out; still prefer her going a bit shorter than this, but she’s had few chances at this level.

SIXTH RACE

GREEK ALPHABET lacked speed and just got outrun right from the jump in fast-paced sprint first time out; has returned with a trio of solid breezes since, and like that he gets a little more ground to work with here, considering his pedigree. BACKYARD HEAVEN debuting over a tough distance, but he has some pedigree for a top trainer, and it’s not like the experienced runners in this field have done all that much to distinguish themselves. COPPER TOWN chased the pace all the way before proving to be no match for the winner in his Gulfstream debut for Pletcher, but worth pointing out that the horse he lost to took a bunch of money to go off favored in that spot; Pletcher strong routing off on longer layoffs like this.

SEVENTH RACE

TIZNOBLE ran better than expected while contesting a fast pace in race that was rained off at Saratoga; better on turf, and like this distance for him as he switches back off the claim. RAPSCALLION has won each of his last three starts over this course and distance, including that most recent start for this claiming tag with a strong late run; like that he sat out the Saratoga meet, where the shorter sprints do not necessarily suit him. ABIDING STAR dropped in class to get back on track last time, after a slow start to the year; like his speed over this distance on grass, and he has won on turf in NY in the past.

EIGHTH RACE

BIG HANDSOME facing a turn back in distance that can be difficult to handle on grass, but he is likely better off going shorter, and he is better than these horses with his good race; game try last time while engaged in a stretch duel until the late stages, but that distance proved to be just a bit too far. FACT FINDING an unknown on turf, but he is bred for it being by The Factor and out of a dam who was a three-time winner on grass; flashed some ability early on over the main track. HARDENED had the best speed to make the top, and then just managed to last in his turf debut upstate; like the improvement he showed in that race, which was his first start of the year, and suspect that he can improve with that one behind him.

NINTH RACE

JAMYSON ‘N GINGER missed some time following her 3yo debut, where she took a game outside run at a talented rival who was in control of the pace before settling for 2nd best; has changed barns since, but she figures tough in this race, assuming all is well. CRIMSON FROST chased wide and gamed out 2nd in her first route attempt at Oaklawn, and she then improved noticeably while carrying a long run to victory in her next start; caught slop and turf in her next two starts, and has been privately purchased since and turned over to Linda Rice. KNARSDALE was reportedly working well leading into that last race upstate, but she compromised her chances by getting off to a poor start in that race, which left her chasing the pace from the outside; distance a question for her, but she can do better than that last one.

TENTH RACE

STRAWBERRY TEQUILA has to prove it on turf, but she has a little pedigree for it, and it s hard to argue with this spot for filly who is dropping in class for the first time; strong win over a wet track to break her maiden as a 2yo, , and she stumbled at the start of her only run so far this year. A DIXIE TWISTER reportedly bled in her last race, where she caught a tough of stretch traffic before finishing with some interest; tough to claim from her former trainer, especially on turf (10% from a large sample, $0.84 ROI), but she has the back races sprinting on turf to be effective here. CRAZY ABOUT JAZZ sat the right trip and took over the lead at the head of the stretch at this level last time, but she couldn’t put that race away and was out-finished at the end; tries again at another short price.