ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, HERE’S TO MIKE

FIRST RACE

AFSANEH didn’t break well on the turf last time but given a clean break today she may be able to shake loose; game in defeat on the main track in her career debut, where she was caught up in a race-long duel. ACORN STREET seems destined to do her best work on turf, as that’s where her dam and lone sibling to start posted their wins, but she has some decent works showing for her debut and she doesn’t meet the deepest of fields. SWEET LIKE CHAR SWEET LIKE CHAR settled for the show in her bow despite taking all the money but she certainly has room to improve in her second straight start.

SECOND RACE

PORT MORE is a little obvious after beating several of these same rivals with relative ease in his latest but there are few compelling alternatives; the fact that he has the versatility to lead or rate makes him even more appealing, as he can adapt to any pace scenario. SALT IT HERE was second best to the top pic as the odds-on favorite in that last run, with no apparent excuse; best shot may be to try to shake loose from his inside post. CALLANT could be the primary threat in the lane, as he’d be one of the main beneficiaries of a duel up front, especially if the top two are involved.

THIRD RACE

SET OF J’S is a proven turf sprinter from a barn which excels with same; he’s been very consistent on the grass of late, and though he’s benefited from ideal position that’s a product of his tactical speed, which he should put to good use here from his outside post. HYMN’S SYLVIA is another professional turf sprinter, and much of his success has come at this exact five furlong distance; should be a factor late. WHAT THE CHUB has decent recent turf figures; may be best on the main track but he could prove a threat if he runs to his best Beyers.

FOURTH RACE

WISE MAC is down in class and lands in a good spot in terms of race flow, as he’s a stone closer reliant on pace and he should get at least some help here; eligible to run them all down on the wire with a clean trip. CONGRATS TO M K is another who stands to benefit from a quick, contested pace; overall win percentage a little light but he could be in a perfect spot here if the race flow develops as expected. SAHARA GOAL makes his first start off the claim, leaving the barn of top trainer Jorge Navarro, but he is surely a contender today based on his best figures.

FIFTH RACE

HERE’S TO MIKE would certainly appreciate a quick pace up front and he should get it, with a couple of speeds signed on to his inside; he did well to get the place at Laurel last time, considering that tepid opening quarter, and he looms a handful in the lane here if he gets more help than that. GEORGE CROSS and DIAMOND PLAY were a halflength apart in that last one, when both benefited from forward trips pushing mild fractions; that’s not likely to be the case here, but both have to be respected on the strength of their recent form.

SIXTH RACE

EL GRANDE ROJO was no threat to GOLDEN RAY in their last meeting but the former was moving well in the late stages and he figures to be well set up in this sprint, which features no shortage

of early zip; dangerous if able to run to his prior Beyers, which are plenty good enough to win this. GOLDEN RAY was a game winner in his last start and he has to be viewed as a big threat off that line, and his best figures from this year; clearly a threat for a barn which always has to be respected.

PALACE BARISTA, like the top pick, should benefit if the pace scenario does in fact favor closers; price should be right, too.

SEVENTH RACE

FRANCESCO FLIER could surprise in his first start off the claim, despite the rise in class, as he comes off a promising effort, one he has license to run back to if all the speed in this field combines to produce a rapid, pressured pace; runner-up effort two back was better than it may look. GENERAL PATTON was on the lead when last seen but he proved two back he can take back and make one run, and that cold be a big factor given the likely race flow; barn always tough here, and this colt picks up Nik Juarez. AXTELL stretches out to a route but if he can take back and make one run he could make some noise late, and he figures to offer value.

EIGHTH RACE

I’M THIRSTY, a winner of three of her last four starts, has been successful of late due in large part to her tactical speed, as she has been able to gain perfect position behind the leaders; she’ll be tough to beat given a similar scenario today, as she could run back to her last figure, a careerbest for her. MISSCHIEF MAAS was no match for the top pick in their last meeting but she ran well in defeat; obviously a top contender, though she could be overbet in relation to I’M THIRSTY due to the barn. MIDNIGHT UNION doesn’t have the Beyers of the top pair, and she was behind the top pick two back, but she was game in her latest and she caught a sloppy track in that prior race.

NINTH RACE

WARRIOR HALL had little chance to close behind those pedestrian fractions at Belmont in her latest, and she may have moved prematurely two back; she’s been working well toward her return, and she could well run a big race here given a better pace set up. VALEDICTORIAN was an easy winner against an overmatched field of statebreds in her first start off the short rest last time; she meets better here but she does have tactical speed and consistent Beyers. IF YOU SAY SO loves to run 2nd, making her an easy filly to like for the bottom of exactas, but she’s a win candidate against the locals if she can run to her best races for trainer Chad Brown.

TENTH RACE

EBONY BALL ran two of her best races when she was on the lead, in her debut and in the maiden score two back, but her ability to rate is what makes her attractive in this sprint, as a rapid, pressured pace seems likely; hoping she can sit early and make a stretch bid. CHUBOFFTHEOLDBLOCK, an uncoupled stablemate of the top pick, was impressive in her well-bet debut, and that effort stamps her as a contender here; may need to win an early duel and then stave off the closers, however. HANNA DUE could be ideally spotted behind a lively pace; barn has enjoyed a strong meet.

ELEVENTH RACE

BLUEGRASS GOLD ran well enough in each of her two starts thus far, and an effort similar to that last one puts her right in the middle of this meet finale; like the inside draw and the fact that the likely race flow should mean she gets a favorable trip and set up. SHABBY CHIC was caught in a duel in her only other appearance on grass but she has been off the pace in some of her recent tries, including her latest, when she closed some despite running against the race flow; seems to have some upside at a price. DYIN FOR DEZI could improve in her 2nd start of the short layoff, as she seemed to move too soon in that return try.