ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, HAVE AT IT

FIRST RACE

MONGOLIAN SHOPPER is a speedy, consistent performer in sprints on Poly and turf; battled to be third, beaten a head for second, when racing in a starter at Arlington most recently. ANGEL CHOIR has won two of her last three, including her latest after blowing the break. Those were claiming races, not starters. NORTHERN SCREAMER would appear to have a bright future as a starter horse after being claimed at Saratoga, but gives the impression of preferring dirt over turf. Still, her form is better now than it was when she ran sixth on turf at Belmont last summer, and she joins the winning turf stable of trainer Mike Maker.

SECOND RACE

HONEY DONT ran second at first asking at Saratoga in a promising effort in which he was only beaten a half length; adds blinkers and should improve with experience. DISCOVERED debuted with a second behind eventual With Anticipation winner Catholic Boy at Gulfstream before fading to sixth in an off-the-grass race at Saratoga; look for him to return to form on the lawn. REALITY QUEEN, a filly matched against the boys, possesses speed and ran fairly well to be fourth at Saratoga last out after a couple of runner-up finishes in Kentucky.

THIRD RACE

Aiming for some value with 8-1 shot LOVE ON TIDES, who didn’t challenge last out when fifth at Arlington, but whose prior efforts over the summer were promising. Her Beyers are also competitive with the other leading contenders. Morning-line favorite PRUDENCE was no factor in running seventh at Ellis last out in a 5 1/2-furlong race - perhaps not caring for the shorter distance. The problem is that she often hangs and settles for pieces in routes - hence why she is the second pick. KAYLEN’S REVENGE was too keen on the lead most recently and weakened late. That marked her second straight third on the lawn at Ellis Park.

FOURTH RACE

HAVE AT IT debuted with a close fifth at Saratoga after being well backed, and now catches an unaccomplished maiden field; improvement likely. DREAMING OF JO JO is a first timer out of champion Dreaming of Anna and a half to graded winner Dreamologist. “Cat” - aka trainer Wayne Catalano - is hitting at 20-percent rate with debuting horses while showing a flat-bet profit. GRANDPA KNOWS BEST has a fourth and a third in two starts, and seems well suited to the move from dirt to turf, being a son of turf sire More Than Ready.

FIFTH RACE

9-2 shot WAR BOND has twice run well in two starts off the claim, finishing fourth in a $32,000 claimer and then in an allowance at Saratoga; consistent Beyers in the 80s and racing for Maker, the leading trainer at KD the past two years; may like a cutback in distance. PAGLIACCI didn’t get near the lead last time and didn’t run to his capability with a sixth-place finish at Saratoga; capable of much better if kept prominent early. SEIZE, yet another frontrunner in the lineup, is in the third start of his current form cycle and was a dominant winner on this course in 2016.

SIXTH RACE

15-time winning veteran SPECTACULAR ME is as honest as they come...put her in a turf sprint and she is going to run to her potential. She looms a factor in this starter on the rise after being claimed from a $25,000 race at Saratoga in which she was a close second. The speedy KASUGA BIG RED SEVEN nearly won a Grade 3 in Canada the last time she raced on the grass, but has a fading tendency, even after clearing. INVENIAM VIAM rattled off four in a row for trainer Brad Cox off

the claim before a disappointing third when shipping down to face state-breds at Louisiana Downs; would have been the choice at a mile - but not accustomed to running 6 1/2 furlongs.

SEVENTH RACE

SPRING UP looms a good claim, getting plucked out of a $62,500 option claimer at Saratoga and now getting the chance to go in starter $25,000 races like this one; finished fourth the day he was claimed when racing in a three-turn turf marathon, but had previously won a small stake at Gulfstream in a more traditional route. CAMMACK is a win machine with a 9 for 24 record on turf, a record that includes a win under these starter conditions last fall; lofty Beyers in the 90s and dropping after a sixth in the Arlington Handicap. SPECIAL OPS is another stakes winner, scoring over the hardknocking Galton in a $75,000 race at Mountaineer on West Virginia Derby Day. His connections of Skychai Racing and Maker have done well with claims over the years, with Da Big Hoss being the most notable success story.

EIGHTH RACE

SUMMER LUCK is a graded-placed filly that ran third in her first turf start; likely to offer more value than DADDYS LIL DARLING, the most accomplished filly in the field. DADDYS LIL DARLING ran fourth in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks the last time she raced on turf before disappointing when racing on short rest in the CCA Oaks on the Saratoga main trackand running fifth; exits nine consecutive graded stakes, six of which were Grade 1s. QUEBEC has been an allowance win and a second in a small stakes race in two starts since being claimed in May; seems to be a rapidly improving 3-year-old filly.

NINTH RACE

GORGEOUS KITTEN looks capable of handling the 1 5/16-mile distance of this race a little better than some of the others and has proven his class with a couple Grade 3 placings on the grass before a fifth in the Grade 1 Secretariat. PARLOR won an allowance at Churchill and ran sixth after a poor start in the Grade 2 Hall Of Fame at Saratoga after a third in the Arlington Classic in which he was a half length behind the top choice. HOLLOW POINT is just 1 for 10 but owns competitive Beyers in the 80s, and looks like the type that could earn a minor share at a price.

TENTH RACE

ELEVEN IT IS is a value play in the nightcap, sitting at 8-1 odds after a third and a fourth at Laurel and Monmouth, respectively. MOROCCO owns easily the top last-race Beyer, an 87, but that is the outlier among his figures; he more typically runs in the 74-83 range; likely favorite despite a 10-0-3-1 record. ONE LAST STRIKE rallied to be second after a seventh in his debut; adds blinkers for winning connections but has yet to post a flashy figure.