ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, DOVETAIL

FIRST RACE

Six of the nine races Sunday are for maidens. This maiden-claiming sprint for 2yo fillies is a split of race 4, and includes “best bet” DOVETAIL. Her fifth-place debut was better than it looks. She was slow from post 2, raced greenly with her head in the air, made a little three-wide move into the lane, raced greenly again, finished okay and actually galloped out in front of all but the winner. Not bad. She ran like a first-time starter that needed a start. She worked an easy half since, gets a rider upgrade to Martin Pedroza, is drawn in the clear, and should move up second out. IN NY MINNIEMINE Y MO E dropped in class and improved second time out. She chased the speed while wide, moved to second on the turn, and tired. She is headed the right direction. TAYLOREALSWIFT makes her California debut after an inconclusive debut running two turns at Indiana Grand. First start for move-up trainer Richard Baltas, likely to improve.

SECOND RACE

This maiden-20 is a split of race 5. KING PACAL came back firing following a two-month layoff, runner-up while three clear of third. That race was on this track in early July, he sat out summer, and returns fresh with a solid work pattern. Arguably the “best horse,” trainer Jaime Gomez won with 47 percent of his favorites the past five years (most starters Los Alamitos night). SHORT OF EZ makes his career debut for trainer Mike Puype, whose win rate with first-time starters is better than it appears. The past five years, Puype has won with just 8 percent of first-timers at other tracks. But his win rate at Los Al is nearly double that (14 percent, 4-for-28). This is a good spot for a firster. COLONEL GOTHAM apparently won the Beaver Derby on July 24 at Canyon Breeze Training Center (race unrecognized, results unpublished). However, that “race” so far has been unproductive. The apparent second- and third-place finishers (Southern Thunder, Fly Papa Fly) made their official debut at Del Mar; neither hit the board. CASH DRIVEN has some gas.

THIRD RACE

STRONG VALUES tossed a clunker last out while ignored in the betting, but is likely to return to form while dropping in class and returning to a track on which he finished a good second three starts back. He has speed, his figures top the field, blinkers are on, and he has a winning trainer-jockey combo in his corner. Vann Belvoir and Martin Pedroza are 10-for-33 this year and produced a $3.41 ROI (return on investment, per $2 win wager). ROCKIN MY MOJO was in tough last out in his first against winners, but his maiden win two back puts him in the hunt. Though he is not quick, he will finish. CORN ON THE CODE won his last two starts at night; he will influence the pace scenario. He might be the one they have to catch. From the inside post, he will use his speed.

FOURTH RACE

This maiden-claiming sprint for 2yo fillies is a split of race 2. FLY AS A FALCON is inching forward, and might be ready to win her third career start. Sixth in her debut, third next out, runner-up last time. She has a forwardly placed style in a race that is fairly void of speed, at least among those that have started. Race-1 selection Dove Tail exits the same race as ‘FALCON. Meanwhile, HAPPY MAGGIE returns from a two-month respite and drops from special-weight maidens to maiden30. Blinkers on, recent works sharp, expect her to fire first start back. One could argue she is the one to beat, rather than the top choice. SHE’S R CAUSE makes her debut with an okay-looking work pattern at San Luis Rey, while locally stabled firsttimer CEE SAM’S GIRL has been working regularly over this track.

FIFTH RACE

This maiden-20 is a split of race 2, and includes logical choice CLIFTON BEACH. The speedster “won” a similar race last out, but was disqualified for interference. Though not always reliable

in deep stretch, his four starts at this five and onehalf furlong distance include a “win,” a second and a third. Early speed, best figures, the one to beat.

MALIBU D’ORO listed as a first-time gelding, is an eight-start maiden that finished in the money all three starts at this class level. He also has enough speed to be forwardly placed, probably positioned right behind the top choice. FLASH HENRY adds blinkers while showing an improving pattern. Each start better than the one before, he battled to deep stretch last time before tiring to fifth. Not bad. Comebacker RALPH JACOBS and SUNDAY NAP figure as contenders.

SIXTH RACE

SWEETWATER GAL moves from inside to outside and drops in class following a troubled seventh last out. Her maiden win two back would probably be good enough for this $8k claiming N2L sprint; she has been training regularly over this track. ROCK ALL DAY is pure speed, and will take them as far as she can. This race is only five furlongs, and therefore her gas could be effective. Win or lose, she looks like the one to catch. BIG G SECRET CRAB also should have something to say about the pace. She is a 9-for-33 front-runner returning from a five-month layoff. She won her most recent start, but did not pass the post-race veterinary exam (claim voided) and then was sidelined. The unknown is whether or not she can be as sharp first start back. She has never fired fresh in the past.

SEVENTH RACE

WISE CURLIN has not raced since February, but his workout pattern over this racetrack is solid and his runner-up finishes last fall and winter are fast enough to win this maiden special-weight for 3-year-olds and up. His forwardly placed running style should play well, because the only other apparent front-runner is his main rival drawn to the outside. That is THORPE D’ORO ran super in his debut four starts back, but then regressed through summer. He did finish second over this racing surface in July, then completely bombed both starts at Del Mar. He might not have liked that surface. Back at “home,” with established ability and a pressing style, he could return to form. CAMINO DE ESTRELLA , two-three all three main-track routes, rallied to second last out in the seventh starts of his career. He is the best late threat, while FRIENDLY OUTTHEDOR is the unknown. The first-time starter is trained by Peter Eurton, who can fire with debut runners over a route of ground (2 of last his last 4).

EIGHTH RACE

AMERICANIZE and LEADING SCORE scratched from the final race of the Del Mar season on Monday, and it probably is just as well. Neither would have defeated the vastly improved Touching Rainbows. AMERICANIZE gets the call in this N1X sprint. Five starts on dirt produced one win, four seconds, and a series of 90-or-higher Beyer Figures fast enough for this. He is drawn in the middle of the field, while LEADING SCORE is buried on the rail. His four starts include one runaway win with a big number (96 Beyer), but three others that were ordinary. His best race is good enough, and it looks like he is training well for his first start since June. If the top pair get into a duel, the race could fall apart in favor of the deep-closing 15-time winner SHACKLEFORD BANKS. He rallied from last to win a $32k claiming sprint two weeks ago, and wheels right back in top form. Look for him late.

NINTH RACE

This sprint for Cal-bred maiden 2yo fillies could come down to a pair bred and owned by Nick Alexander, and trained by Phil D’Amato. They are the closely related CARRIE’S SUCCESS and CARPATHIA. Their workouts at San Luis Rey Downs suggest the possibility they were working in company; CARRIE’S SUCCESS posted faster recent work times. Sired by speed stallion Successful Appeal, CARRIE’S SUCCESS is the first foal produced by Carrie Rose, who is a sibling to Melinda Rose, dam of CARPATHIA. The latter is an Exchange Rate filly who worked faster than her stablemate in mid-August, then not as fast in her two recent works. Either way, looks like the rookies may hold the edge. GOODLOOKNBROAD finished fourth in a slow race at Del Mar; her runner-up debut was on this racetrack. Expect a return to form.