Mondialiste at home in Woodbine Mile

NEW YORK – There are stakes-packed cards Saturday at Woodbine, where the main event is the Grade 1, $800,000 Woodbine Mile; Laurel, where that track’s Fall Festival of Racing program has seven stakes led by the Grade 3, $250,000 Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash; and Churchill Downs, where the headliners are the Grade 2, $200,000 Pocahontas and the Grade 3, $150,000 Iroquois, two route stakes for 2-year-olds. Also, Belmont offers the Grade 2, $400,000 Sands Point Stakes.

Woodbine Mile

Deauville and World Approval will likely be the two betting favorites, and a victory from either would be no surprise. Deauville was a sharp third as the favorite in last month’s Arlington Million and might relish the cutback in distance to a mile, at which he was a fine third three starts back in the Group 1 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot.

World Approval won his last three starts going nine furlongs or less, including a decisive victory most recently in the Grade 1 Fourstardave. That said, Deauville looks like the type who has some difficulty closing the deal, particularly at this level, and World Approval was definitely helped by “off” turf when he won the Fourstardave and the Dixie three back. He will not get that sort of footing Saturday.

Mondialiste is a very appealing alternative to the favorites, especially if he is in the neighborhood of his morning-line price of 8-1. I concede that Mondialiste’s recent form in England is uninspiring, but that is not a concern to me at all, as he has always done his best racing here in North America. He won last year’s Arlington Million, beating Deauville, and did so going 10 furlongs, which is to his credit (and a knock on the rest of that field) because he has always been most effective as a miler.

Mondialiste followed with a gaining fourth in the Shadwell Turf Mile, finishing just behind next-out Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Tourist, but was totally out of his element in the Breeders’ Cup Turf going 1 1/2 miles, and, for that matter, in the subsequent Dubai Turf at nine furlongs.

Mondialiste won the 2015 Woodbine Mile, beating an arguably stronger field than he faces Saturday, and came back to be an excellent second to Tepin in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Mondialiste is now finally getting back to what he really wants to do and where he wants to do it, and I’m expecting a strong performance.

Laurel Turf Cup

Value should be easy to get in this terrific betting race. Renown and St. Albans Boy are the last two Laurel Turf Cup winners, but both seem well below their best form. Infinite Wisdom is in sharp form, having just won the John’s Call at Saratoga. He might get another walking lead here, but he is also back in only three weeks. Manitoulin is also in good form, although he didn’t finish in his last two starts the way I would have liked him to. And Holiday Star has every right to improve on his recent return from a 21-month absence. The problem is, he really didn’t do much running in his comeback.

This is a good spot for a new face, and I’m going with the very new face in the recent French import Canessar. The 1 1/2-mile distance won’t be an issue for Canessar, as he turned in five straight solid performances in longer races at the start of his 2017 campaign. That series of races made him a contender last time in the Group 2 Prix Maurice de Nieuil, and considering he flattened out late after making a run and now appears here in the U.S. with Lasix, I wonder if he bled. Canessar was well regarded early in his career, and that he is now in the top hands of trainer Arnaud Delacour is just a bonus.

Pocahontas Stakes

Being skeptical of the top three finishers out of the Ellis Park Debutante, since that race badly fell apart late, I like Harbor Lights, impressive winner of her only start.

Harbor Lights disputed fast fractions with three other pace opponents at Ellis, all while well in hand, and yet still drew off to score convincingly. She now goes sprint to route with a suitable pedigree and a trainer in Steve Asmussen who, according to Formulator, has won at a 23 percent clip the last five years with 2-year-old second-time starters going sprint to route.