ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, CERISE’S PRINCE

FIRST RACE

SHADOW SURPRISE contested a fast pace and tired readily when last seen a couple of months ago, and it’s concerning that he has been listed as a vet scratch in the interim, but he ran well enough to win this in each of his first two starts, including his debut where he got the best of a fast duel before falling to closers, and his speed projects to play well over this shorter trip, assuming all is well. HERE AND THERE improved off the claim for sharp young trainer last year, and he had a legit excuse in his return from the layoff after trouble at the start forced him to chase wide; got the right ride last time and did his best with it vs. a similar field. CASIGORDO had little to offer over a muddy track when returned to dirt and dropped in class when last seen, but he ran a race that would be plenty good enough when breaking his maiden earlier in the year; taken by sharp claiming outfit. BAR NONE can easily win this as he drops off the claim, but his lack of early speed works against him at this distance.

SECOND RACE

KRAMPUS making 3yo debut off the layoff for Mott, who tends to have them ready, and he is getting some class relief, as well, after getting shut off in the stretch while still in contention in that first one; may not have to improve all that much vs. this field. HARLAN’S HUNCH disappointed last time in a race that was strong for the level considering the winner, but he ran well when 2nd with a new top figure two starts back, and his speed projects to play well in this field. CULTURE CARRIER debuting for a tag for Chad, and he has a little pedigree on his side being the first foal from his dam, who is a sister to Interactif, a multiple graded stakes winner on grass. BRIAN BAKES COOKIES one of the horses to beat, but he has had his chances already, and it’s not like he didn’t have every chance in his last two races; class drop helps.

THIRD RACE

SPA SHACKALACKA debuting for trainer who is having a strong year with his 2yos, and he has a nice mix of precocity on top (Shackleford getting 17% winners with his 2yos sprinting on dirt so far) and class on the bottom (female family of stakes winners soaring Softly, Recepta, Defiant Honor) of his pedigree. DEBATING a $525k purchase debuting for Chad Brown, and he also has some pedigree as a half to the multiple Grade 2 winner Fed Biz; dam won four of her five career starts, and she is a sister to Tale of the Cat. VICTORY LANE debuting for Shug, who won’t push his babies early, but the 6.5 furlongs could work in his favor here; first two foals from this dam are the stakes winners Donworth and Con Te Partiro. ST. AUGUSTINE a Tapit colt who may want a bit more ground being the first foal from the talented dirt router St. John’s River.

FOURTH RACE

LITTLE MISS BUSINESS finished a good 2 nd while up in class off the claim over this track two starts back, then shipped to Monmouth and chased the pace while wide before tiring out; drops back down to a level where she has been tough without fail, and she is perfectly drawn on the outside. SPRING FOR MORE blew a field of $16k claimers away in her NY debut back in May, and she came right back to finish a game 3rd vs. better in her very next start; drops back down and turns back to sprint after mid-moving to contention and carrying on to defeat NJ-bred allowance rivals last time. RITZY LASS and DOIN WHAT SHE LIKES both off the claim for Diodoro, who is 7 for 16 first off the claim on dirt at Belmont this year ($2.75 ROI); the former is switching from turf to dirt, while the latter is stepping up off a top figure win last time.