ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

EZMOSH raced twice at Saratoga this summer, catching two of the better maiden races of that meet; finished third behind eventual Hopeful winner Sporting Chance and followed that with a second to Honorable Treasure, a colt that looks like a graded horse in the making. GLASS BRIDGE also caught some good ones at Saratoga, racing there one time and debuting with a fifth in a quick race; fast works at Monmouth, both before and after his debut. TIZ MISCHIEF ran an even fourth at first asking at Ellis Park and has since worked promisingly here at Churchill.

SECOND RACE

FLASH N’ DANCE debuted with a promising second at Ellis Park, losing by 1 3/4 lengths to Sultry, who runs in the Grade 2 Pocahontas later today; thirdplace finisher from that race came back to win at Ellis. Most of the others in here are first timers, and of those prefer TRUST and STRONGER THAN EVER. Both were pricey yearlings that have trained nicely leading up to their unveilings; slight edge of the two goes to TRUST given that she debuts for Asmussen, whose young horses are so well prepped and typically break sharply.

THIRD RACE

VAPORMAN has been first or second in six of 11 starts, and one of the times he wasn’t in the exacta was last out when third at Ellis Park in an encouraging effort; runner-up from that allowance, Rhythm Park, came back to dominate in a $16,000 starter, jumping from an 83 to 92 Beyer. RACE ME HOME overcame a wide trip to edge heavily favored Meantime, a graded-placed colt, in a first-level allowance at Saratoga last out; up in class but this colt was stakes placed last year at 3; like the top choice, already has a win over the Churchill main track. COWBOY RHYTHM goes from a third-level allowance into a second-level one by racing for a $62,500 tag under the optional claiming conditions of this race; in solid form and figures to sit a nice stalking trip just off stretchout sprinter STORM ADVISORY, a classy runner but one that has struggled routing.

FOURTH RACE

GAMBIT debuted with a second at Ellis Park following a somewhat awkward break; two sharp half-mile breezes since over the Churchill strip for a barn that is currently hitting at a 24-percent clip with second timers. SWIPING DAN is another second-out horse that was the runner-up in his first race, though he did so at Monmouth with an ordinary 52 Beyer, 9 points below the 61 posted by GAMBIT. TENKOZ was bet like he had talent when debuting at Ellis Park, going off at 9-5, but faded badly to seventh after dueling for the lead; expect more staying power.

FIFTH RACE

LANEY looks to reverse her form following a short freshening and with blinkers coming off; obviously has talent, having won three races and run third in a Grade 2 on Oaks Day; plenty of speed to set up her rally. MYTHICAL TALE, in the third start of her current form cycle, comes off a couple runner-up finishes at Ellis Park; only out of the exacta once in five starts - with that race coming in a stakes race. TU SE MANQUES won like a good thing first out at Ellis Park and has a nice pedigree, but gives up experience and will have to deal with plenty of pace pressure.

SIXTH RACE

The 2-year-olds that have run in here have not caught the eye...so going with first timers in the 1-2-3 positions. MIA MISCHIEF gets top billing -

selling for $300,000 at auction this year, being by elite sire Into Mischief, and debuting for Asmussen. SEGMENT also appears to have promise. Trainer Al Stall took her to Saratoga, and though she didn’t get a start there, the mere fact he took her there suggests she is probably held in high regard; is a half to a pair of stakes winners, most notably Apart, winner of the Super Derby and Ack Ack. MISS KATIE BUG is by a turf sire in Point of Entry, but the dam won all of her races on dirt; quick recent gate drill, though her pedigree suggests she will ultimately want more distance than six furlongs.

SEVENTH RACE

FLASH HARRY was dull in a July 30 comeback at Ellis Park, but perhaps can rebound following a series of quick works at Trackside; twice third in turf races behind quality foes at Gulfstream over the winter. REPROVE ran a close fourth first out at Ellis Park, and is bred for the move from dirt to turf, being by Blame, who has developed into a top grass sire; related to a pair of graded winners on dirt, most notably Rothko, winner of the Grade 3 Aristides on the Churchill main track. FARAT, a surprisingly inexpensive Lemon Drop Kid yearling that hammered for only $25,000, finished second first out at Arlington, albeit in a short field.

EIGHTH RACE

TIGER MOTH, in the best form of her career, overcame an extremely wide trip to win the Grade 3 Gardenia at Ellis Park, defeating graded winner Walkabout, who had the much better run. That was her second consecutive stakes win, and if she maintains her form she can likely win her third straight. The one concern is she is unplaced in three starts on the Churchill main track, but keeping the faith in her given how sharp she is for her winning connections. BLUE PRIZE flashed improved speed and came close to upsetting heavily favored Verve’s Tale in a restricted stake last out when lit up with blinkers; figures to sit a favorable trip just off a slow pace; second pick due to a history of runner-up finishes. BROOKLYNSWAY doesn’t seem the filly she was in 2016, but is likely better than she showed in the Gardenia when 10th after a slow start; may try to steal this on the lead.

NINTH RACE

IVY BELL is three for four this year with her only loss coming behind Finley’sluckycharm, one of the top female dirt sprinters in the country; fond of the Churchill strip, too. MAYLA won an allowance at Delta earlier this year but has since settled for pieces while racing in stakes; caught a Maryland standout when second last out at Laurel, which followed a third behind Finley’sluckycharm and IVY BELL in the Chicago Handicap over this track ATHENA was given time off after a seventh in the Chicago Handicap, and perhaps the freshening will get her back on track; is 4 for 12 at Churchill and packs a strong late kick.

TENTH RACE

THE TABULATOR, perfect in two starts while sprinting, might be underestimated a bit after racing at Arlington and Prairie Meadows. To these eyes he acts like the real deal, and he sold like one when he fetched $460,000 at auction in March of this year. TEN CITY disappointed with a flat third in the Ellis Park Juvenile after winning his first two starts, including the Grade 3 Bashford Manor, but that race was a means to an end to prepare him for this race, which had been the long-term target after the Bashford Manor; favorable inside draw with a short run to the first turn. HOLLYWOOD STAR won first out in a good-looking performance over this track, and then was second in the Saratoga Special behind Copper Bullet; acts well suited to the stretch out to a route and also drawn well in post two.

ELEVENTH RACE

KELLY’S HUMOR drew poorly on the far outside, but still rates on top based on her winning both of her starts; has a mile maiden win under her belt, which was followed by a strong-finishing victory in the Ellis Park Debutante. SUNNY SKIES has similar form to stablemate Ten City in the Iroquois, having won her first two races before running third at Ellis Park; should stay two turns being by Derby winner Animal Kingdom. SNOWFIRE, highly regarded by trainer Mark Casse, won by four first out before a distant fourth in a stake at Saratoga; loaded with pedigree.