ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, PAT THE BEAR

FIRST RACE

ADVENTUROUS drops to the maiden-20 bottom for the first time; he faced much tougher his two recent starts. HI HEAT BOY also drops, from Calbred maiden-40. He was gelded since his most recent start in early July, and posted a bullet workout on this track five days ago. Likely to return as an improved horse. MALIBU D’ORO raced wide and fizzled six days ago. He wheels back on short notice and will have something to say about the pace scenario. This small field came up short on speed. HOPPITY should be forwardly placed, and could be positioned second behind the speed. If the pacesetter falters again, HOPPITY could get first run.

SECOND RACE

WHERESTHEMONEYJACK drops to the lowest level for winners, $12.5k claiming N2L, and catches a field that is otherwise void of speed. He won a maiden race three starts back at this “specialty” distance of seven furlongs, and could be loose on the lead. Come catch him. MY GOLDEN ONE finished third in the Humboldt County Marathon on closing day of the Ferndale meet. Decent effort by MY GOLDEN ONE, who shortens from a mile and three-eighths around six turns, to seven furlongs around one turn. He will rally late. RAFTER ONE has yet to cross the wire first (maiden win via disqualification two starts back), but his form and figures are okay for this class level. And, this is first try at the bottom. MOSTLY CLOUDY has run races that put him in the hunt.

THIRD RACE

WARRIOR VIXEN returns to the maiden-30 level after an oaky third last out vs. maiden-40 foes. The nine-start 4yo maiden has had nine chances; this is probably the easiest yet. On numbers, she is simply the fastest in the field. HOPE SHE WILL drops from special-weight and stretches to a route of ground for the first time. OF NOTE moves up a notch following a runner-up finish in a maiden-20, while ON A TOOT has an upset chance. She adds blinkers, goes route to sprint and makes her first start off the claim. Based on pedigree, she should love the two-turn distance.

FOURTH RACE

CORONADO COOL finished more than three lengths clear of third last out in a similar N2L claiming route at Del Mar, an effort that stamps her the one to beat. She has tactical speed but does not require the lead, and could tuck into a cozy trip forwardly placed while positioned right behind the pace. Likely winner if she runs two alike. IT’S NOT SO EASY stretches back to two turns and should be forwardly placed in a race that is likely to unfold at a tepid pace. ZANAB will pick up the pieces, as usual. She is 1-for-26, with four seconds and six thirds. FASHION FAIR stretches out for the first time and could influence the pace scenario.

FIFTH RACE

CHATTY ran super in her debut, and might have won the race except for making a right-hand turn at the break. She quickly zoomed forward to press/ set a fast pace, stuck in there to deep stretch and actually ran super in defeat. The race was validated when winner Piedi Bianchi returned to finish second in the Del Mar Debutante, third place Bad Behavior returned to finish second in a fast maiden race, and eighth place Steph Being Steph returned to win. The point is, CHATTY faced a good field, ran well, and should be tough to beat. Trainer Michael McCarthy won with 14 of his last 55 starters. SUMMER’S INDY debuts with a series of fast workouts over this track, for a leading stable. This is the first crop sired by Take Charge Indy; his progeny won 4 of 26 first time out according to Thoro-Graph. SAINT TROPEZ set the pace and tired to fifth in an okay debut. Improvement likely second time out. ANGELS N DEVILDOGS and RANCO are first-time starters with fast works. If the top choice misfires, anything goes.

SIXTH RACE

PAT THE BEAR can be long gone in this restricted $6,250 claiming race. Het set a blazing pace last out going six and a half, held second, and now drops in class and shortens to five and a half. The clear speed of the field, proven over this track (runner-up here last fall), PAT THE BEAR is the one to catch. If he runs like he did last time, the only race will be for second. HACKLETON has an off-the-pace running style opposite the top choice. His two starts at Del Mar were disappointing, but he ran well on this track two seasons ago and will be rolling from the back as he shortens from a mile. PRINCE CHARMANT has discovered how to win. After winning only 2 of his first 45 starts, he has won 2 of his last 4. He ships in from Northern California in top form, having won a $5k claiming race last out at Santa Rosa. HAWK’S EYES has faced better; his recent form is okay.

SEVENTH RACE

The sharp current form of AVICII, and drop in class, stamps her the one to beat. In the money four straight at the N2X level including a win, she drops to N1X while entered for the optional $40k claim tag. She has speed, she can rally from behind, her figures are good for this level and she has run well over this track. Obvious choice, albeit low odds. The improving HAVEITURE WAY scored a sharp win last out vs. Cal-bred N1X foes. She set a fast pace and kept running. The fourth- and sixth-place finishers behind her returned to win. RESILIENT HUMOR has an upset chance based on her better-than-looked debut upset here last fall. She had all sorts of trouble, yet won going away. She was overmatched following that, facing subsequent stakes winners Unique Bella and Princess Karen, then went to the sidelines. Fast recent works, proven fresh, likes the track, big price. Upset candidate.

EIGHTH RACE

The promising third-place debut by EXUBERANCE landed her on the Daily Racing Form “Horses to Watch” list for this restricted stakes. Her debut was solid. Racing five and one-half furlongs, she lagged, rallied, and finished with run. She worked a sharp half-mile since, stretches to six and a half furlongs, and meets an apparently modest field. ISMELUCKY could vie for favoritism based on the high figures (61, 58 Beyer) her first two starts. Trouble is, those races were four months ago at four and a half. It is uncertain if she can fire her best shot first start back, at six and a half, after missing summer, though her work pattern suggests she is fit. SHAKEN MEMORIES looms the knockout. She produced significantly more speed second time out, dueled into the lane and then backed up. A potential pacesetter, she has a shot to wire the field at a big price. Seven of the nine in this stakes are maidens; the two winners are coming off a four-mount layoff and a maiden-30 win. Modest field.

NINTH RACE

TEMPLAR is quick, his recent form is sharp (two wins and a second), his speed figures top the field and he is racing just five and one-half furlongs. It adds up to “horse to beat” status in this $12.5k claiming starter allowance. This is his first start since he was claimed by George Papaprodromou, who is 4-for-14 first off the claim the past year and half. CASUALITY finished only a head behind the top choice when they met two months ago. That was the most recent start by CASUALITY, who runs well fresh and whose last five starts produced three wins, two seconds. Likely winner if the top choice falters. LUCKARACK is a 19-for-68 veteran wheeling back eight days after an opening-week win here for $6,250 claiming. Sharp horse in sharp form will be rolling late.