Mobile Bay’s fitness a question mark

On the positive side, Mobile Bay won the 2016 Louisiana Champions Day Classic at Fair Grounds by nearly five lengths, looking very much like the dominant older Louisiana-bred dirt-route horse.

On the negative side, he has done almost no racing since.

Mobile Bay has not raced since winning another Louisiana-bred stakes Feb. 11 at Delta Downs. His connections intended to prep him for a Champions Day Classic repeat bid in a race last month at Delta, but Mobile Bay fell ill and had to be scratched. So Mobile Bay comes into the Classic a compromised favorite, perhaps vulnerable due to a lack of total race fitness.

“Naturally, I’d have liked to have gotten that race in,” said Victor Arceneaux, who trains Mobile Bay for the horse’s breeder and owner, Irwin Olian’s Tigertail Ranch. “He’s sound. I just hope he’s tight enough.”

Mobile Bay is one of eight entered in the $150,000 Classic, which, at 1 1/8 miles, qualifies as a test of stamina in today’s American racing landscape. Seaside Candy, however, will be scratched from this race as well the Champions Day Ladies, while Extra Credit, much more a turf horse, was cross-entered in the Turf.

Mobile Bay, a millionaire by Lone Star Special, could be the controlling speed of the race under Diego Saenz and is a fourtime winner from nine starts at the distance. His advantages might be moot, though, if he is too rusty to perform near his standard. Two days before his intended comeback run, on a Saturday, Mobile Bay was off his feed slightly, Arcenaux said.

“Friday he was off his feed a little more, Saturday even more so... he spiked a temperature, and I was forced to scratch,” he said. “It was a 24-hour deal, but bad timing. His workouts have been just as good as usual. It wasn’t hard to get him back fit.”

Underpressure and Mageez look like the two to step into the void should Mobile Bay fail to produce his best, and Underpressure has a tactical edge. A 3-year-old trained by Chris Richard, Underpressure never runs a bad race, and with 5 wins from 13 starts, often runs good ones. He exits two Delta wins over shorter trips and should be positioned near a slow pace. Underpressure never has raced this far, but as a son of Birdstone and the Charismatic mare Charming Colleen, he is very much bred to stay.

Mageez, who races on Lasix for the first time, closed resolutely into a slow pace to get second in this race last year, and two post-layoff runs this fall should have him set for a peak effort, but Mageez’s lack of tactical pace could prove his undoing.

Trainer Brad Cox said Extra Credit, could wind up in the Classic. Extra Credit’s only dirt win from four tries came on a wet track, but he’s competent on the surface.

The Classic, race 10 of 13, has a scheduled post time of 5:35 p.m. Central and is the one of 10 stakes races (three Quarter Horse, seven Thoroughbred) on a very playable card. After a wet week in New Orleans, the forecast calls for clear skies.