Hong Kong Analysis by Andrew Hawkins

SHA TIN SELECTIONS – (Sunday, December 10, 2017)

RACE 1: #1 Circuit Hassler, #2 Victory Boys, #10 Bring It On, #4 Amazing Agility RACE 2: #5 Simply Brilliant, #3 Bravo Watchman, #6 Storm Signal, #12 Starship RACE 3: #6 Nothingilikemore, #9 Southern Legend, #5 Jolly Banner, #4 Dundonnell RACE 4: #12 Kiseki, #1 Highland Reel, #2 Talismanic, #4 Chemical Charge RACE 5: #2 Lucky Bubbles, #1 Mr Stunning, #3 Peniaphobia, #7 Signs Of Blessing RACE 6: #7 Lockheed, #11 Jing Jing Win, #14 Lucky Dollar, #3 Sea Jade RACE 7: #2 Helene Paragon, #13 Lancaster Bomber, #7 Seasons Bloom, #3 Contentment RACE 8: #4 Werther, #2 Neorealism, #10 War Decree, #5 Staphanos RACE 9: #2 Spicy Sure, #11 Top Beautiful, #3 Calculation, #5 Bulb Elite RACE 10: #2 Sacred Elixir, #9 Rise High, #12 Rattan, #4 Citron Spirit

RACE 4: G1 LONGINES HONG KONG VASE

#12 Kiseki only debuted on this day last year. He has risen through the grades to the point where he won the Kikuka Sho, Japan’s St Leger, last start. He looks progressive and he has a nice turn of foot. He is a strong player. #1 Highland Reel has his final start here after a stellar globetrotting career. He’ll be near the speed and could very easily take off, tactics that have worked in the past. #2 Talismanic beat Highland Reel in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He should get a nice run from the inside gate and he’ll be around the mark. #4 Chemical Charge needs firm ground and can improve.

RACE 5: G1 LONGINES HONG KONG SPRINT

#2 Lucky Bubbles had absolutely no luck in the Jockey Club Sprint. It was a run reminiscent of Aerovelocity’s beaten effort in 2014 before he won the Hong Kong Sprint, and he’s clearly among Hong Kong’s best sprinters. He can complete the big sprint double of the Chairman’s Sprint Prize and the Hong Kong Sprint. #1 Mr Stunning has been the form galloper this season. He’s clearly the one they all have to beat. #3 Peniaphobia can bounce out and lead here. He’s completed his own personal trifecta in the race in recent years – winning in 2015, second in 2014, third in 2016. #7 Signs Of Blessing hasn’t travelled well, but he ran strongly in this race last year and from a better gate, he can get into the placings.

RACE 7: G1 LONGINES HONG KONG MILE

#2 Helene Paragon is a perplexing case. He should have won last year, and off his Jockey Club Mile run, he’s going to be the one to beat here. However, his trial last week was terrible and his gallop on Thursday morning wasn’t great. Still, he’s not been great in the mornings before and he’s run well on raceday, so he gets the nod. #13 Lancaster Bomber has only won a maiden, but he rarely runs a poor race on firm ground. He’s drawn awkwardly but he should be forwardly-placed. He is a chance. #7 Seasons Bloom is racing very well this season and looks to be one of Hong Kong’s emerging stars. He will be in the finish. #3 Contentment would require a master John Size training effort to win, but his trackwork and trials have been outstanding and he could sneak a place.

RACE 8: G1 LONGINES HONG KONG CUP

#4 Werther is Hong Kong’s best middle-distance galloper. He should be well-suited and this can be the cherry on top for his career. #2 Neorealism didn’t have everything to suit early in the QEII Cup in April, but he still managed to hold off Pakistan Star to score. His one run since was poor but it was on soft ground and he is a leading player with a return to his best form. #10 War Decree still has to prove himself. He was outpaced from the get-go in the Breeders’ Cup Classic so that run can be forgotten. He can pick up placemoney at big odds. #5 Staphanos has placed twice over the Sha Tin 2000m from three starts and he can be in the finish again.