ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, PRIME ISSUE FIRST RACE

WE WILL RE JOYCE wasn’t disgraced routing on turf at DMR last time out but this is a better situation both in terms of footing and distance. She ran the best race of her life when laughing at maidens by 8 lengths here Sept. 22. INNYMINNIEMINEYMOE dueled from the start vs. similar at DMR last time out Nov. 10 and paid the price, fading to 3rd. She faces ample other speed here but it’s a furlong shorter and she ran big here a few months ago. MIDNIGHT SUMMER gamely won routing over similar at SA Oct. 26, earning a shot at turf at DMR Nov. 19. That didn’t go as well (ran 6th) so she’s back to dirt, which has to help. Note a debut win at this distance so she sprints just fine.

SECOND RACE

RUN LIKE RHETT held good form from the spring into the fall before an uncharacteristic dud on DMR turf Nov. 11. In his defense, he has early trouble and was never able to recover. He’s back to dirt, which he handles, and it’s certainly encouraging to see he is still not offered for a tag. POPULAR KID has been freshened a couple months after a dull 7th on SA turf Oct. 22. He moves to dirt, which is likely a better surface for him, and note a nice 2nd in a similar type of race at SA Oct. 13. CURLY’S WATERFRONT made a smart move to the lead in a turf route at DMR Nov. 11 at this level but couldn’t sustain his run, ending up 3rd. That was still a very nice first effort for Reed who claimed him the race prior. He was well regarded enough a year ago to get a couple stakes engagements.

THIRD RACE

Trainer Bob Baffert has won this nine times and appears to hold the aces again here with heavy favorites SOLOMINI and MCKINZIE. SOLOMINI is the proven commodity, having run 2nd in the G1 FrontRunner and G1 BC Juvenile, both routes and he’s shown ample tactical speed and the ability to finish. MCKINZIE dazzled in his debut at SA Oct. 28, bounding away to win easily and posting a big Beyer (99, the field’s best). He is giving away overall experience and route experience to his stable- mate and that could make the different, though he’s obviously bred for this game and longer being by G1 Ky. Derby winner Street Sense. Either way, Baffert looks in control. RUNAWAY GHOST graduated on SA dirt, was gone a few months and came back to romp in a stakes on GG synthetic. So, he’s got quality and his maiden win shows he handles this footing. Being by superstar route Ghostzapper also says this trip should be well within his reach.

FOURTH RACE

WAR HEROINE looked super blasting maidens in her debut at DMR Nov. 12. Sure, it’s her first time vs. winners and first time routing here, but the absence of the big girls mean this isn’t the strongest renewal and while she is routing she’s surely bred to be effective at this trip. DREAM TREE is the one to bat as the $750K daughter of Uncle Mo won her first two starts, both dirt sprints and both, incidentally, by a nose over the same rival (Midnight Bisou). It is interesting, though, that after her Desi Arnaz win Baffert said he’s likely keep her sprinting. Well, obviously we’re routing today. PIEDI BIANCHI is twice G1 placed routing so she’s a proven commodity. While she’s been coming from well out of it in her last few, note her maiden win came sprinting where she showed ample speed.

FIFTH RACE

HOTSY DOTSY has certainly had lots of chances (14) but likely won’t get many chances better than this. She comes off a smart 2nd in a race just like this at DMR. It looks like it’s finally her turn. CURLINA CURLINA is another who’s had lots of opportunities (19) but at least she comes off a couple 3rds and her best finish (2nd) came on this track at this trip at this level. QUALITY GIRL takes the most important drop in the game and trainer Jones also adds blinkers so he’s pulling out all the stops. And while the drop may help, she’s still yet to show any real talent so the drop better help a bunch.