Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
Distance suits Americanize in Midnight Lute Stakes
Captivated by a barn switch to trainer Bob Baffert and a sparkling work tab, the betting public seems likely to bank on Grade 1 winner Masochistic returning to form when he makes his first start since May in Saturday’s Grade 3 Midnight Lute Stakes at Santa Anita.
Although I respect his back class and Baffert’s training skill, I’d rather take the contrarian view and go against Masochistic, seeing little upside in backing him as the anticipated favorite. This is a horse who is 7 and whose two starts in 2017 were both substandard – a loss to the ordinary Denman’s Call in the Triple Bend and then a thumping in the Churchill Downs Stakes on May 6, after which he went to the sidelines.
Americanize is my selection. The winner of the Damascus Stakes at Del Mar on Nov. 3, he ran a quality fourth in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile last out Dec. 2 – the first time in nine dirt races he has not been in the exacta.
He impressed in defeat in the Cigar Mile. Pushing a fast pace, he was passed by the victorious Sharp Azteca on the turn and held on respectably. Though unable to keep up down the lane, he only missed holding off Practical Joke for third by 1 1/4 lengths, and all three horses who finished in front of him won Grade 1 races in 2017.
Now he’s cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs, a trip at which he beat eventual Malibu Stakes winner City of Light in an allowance Oct. 7 at Santa Anita, and he is favorably drawn outside the speedy Masochistic. Add that all up, and he is the most likely winner of the Midnight Lute.
Pago Hop: Magic Joan well drawn
Deep stakes fields abound across the country Saturday, particularly in races restricted to 3-year-olds on grass.
The $75,000 Pago Hop at Fair Grounds is one such race, with 14 horses in the body of the field, plus a couple of also-eligibles. I like Magic Joan, a lightly raced but talented prospect who sits at 8-1 on the morning line.
A winner rallying from behind a slow pace at Belmont Park first out, she returned to finish a fast-closing second in a salty allowance at Aqueduct, earning an 89 Beyer Speed Figure that matches the highest figures posted by the leading Pago Hop contenders.
Though she gives up experience, Magic Joan has strengths that may offset that. Besides having run this fall in New York, she is well drawn in post 4 in the Pago Hop and should get a good trip. And she also benefits from catching a field loaded with speed.
Adding to her appeal is the trainer/ jockey combination of Brad Cox and Shaun Bridgmohan, who have paired up to win at a 34 percent clip at Fair Grounds in 2016-17.
I doubt she will stick to her 8-1 morning line since the cross-entered I’m Betty G, a 9-2 shot, likely will scratch and run at Gulfstream Park in the second division of the Tropical Park Oaks on Saturday. Odds of 4-1 or 5-1 are realistic on Magic Joan.
Heft Stakes: Whirlin Curlin rising
I am also eager to support Whirlin Curlin in the Heft, a $100,000 stakes race for 2-yearolds that goes as the fourth race at Laurel Park.
A nonfactor in his first two races, one in the slop and another on a yielding turf course, he has looked like a different animal in winning two consecutive restricted stakes on fast tracks over the Laurel surface. And though his most recent win came in fast time, resulting in an 83 Beyer, the fact that it came against Maryland-breds likely will result in some viewing that figure with skepticism.
Don’t underestimate him on the basis of the statebred company. That was a quality field, and he had a less-than-ideal trip, having to race between horses with a fourhorse scramble into the turn. Even so, he dug in bravely to wear down a stubborn leader, and the victory came at the sevenfurlong distance of the Heft.
Others who have run as fast as him – Diamond King and A Different Style – don’t have that experience. Diamond King is untested at Laurel, and A Different Style has yet to run farther than six furlongs.