ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, HOLLAND ROAD

FIRST RACE

HAIL, a daughter of top sire Tapit, was slow into stride in her debut here Nov. 24 but ran on decently for 3rd. Not only can she benefit from that run, she’s got loads of pedigree as all four sibs to race are winners including Close Hatches (9 wins, $2.7 million, 5 G1 SWs, 2 G2 SWs, twice G1 SP including 2nd in the BC Distaff) and Lockdown (2 wins, $445K, SW, 4 SPs including 3rd in the G1 CCA Oaks and G1 Cotillion, and 2 G2 2nds). MO WINE ran evenly to be 4th in her debut here Dec. 3. The $135K daughter of Uncle Mo can surely improve, particularly as trainer Pletcher is a super 33% 2nd time out. Her only sib, full-bro Sakab, is a winner. CADEAU DE PAIX was no factor when 4th in her debut here Nov. 16 but can improve. That was a productive heat (produced two next-out winners).

SECOND RACE

LOST IRON came back after over a year on the bench and laughed at $25K N2L foes here Dec. 10. That was a most encouraging return run and he figures tougher again. Trouble is, he drops quite a bit in price off that run. That’s worrisome as they don’t give anything away out here. COMPETITIVENESS beat maidens smartly at BEL Oct. 13, was gone two months and came back to beat winners here Dec. 9. He’s the one to fear as he’s improving. FINNEGAN’s two wins came on turf and synthetic but he’s bred for dirt (ran 2nd in his only try on it), has worked well of late, takes a huge drop for this first start in six months and is sent out by a trainer who does very well off the bench.

THIRD RACE

CLASSY CLASS was good enough to easily win the G3 Salvator Mile at MTH June 17 before dueling and hitting the brakes in a tougher G3 Monmouth Cup July 30. He’s been freshened since by McLaughlin who does well off the bench. He also doesn’t face the same type of opposition he did in the Momouth Cup - winner Sharp Azteca came back to win the G2 Kelso, ran 2nd in the G1 BC Dirt Mile and win the G1 Cigar Mile, and 3rd finisher Just Call Kenny came back to win the G3 Iselin. VULCAN’S FORGE got tossed into the deep end here Dec. 2 when trying the G1 Cigar Mile. Those waters proved far too deep but he’s back to a much better level and a return to his prior form makes him scary. BACKSIDE OF THE MOON ran 2nd, a neck ahead of VULCAN’S FORGE when they met at BEL Oct. 12. He was then only fifth here Nov. 12 but has been freshened since and maybe that can get him back on track.

FOURTH RACE

I MISS MY FATHER finally broke through and got his diploma here Dec. 8. The son of Dublin has ample speed to be in the thick of it from the start and today’s outside post can help him get a good trip. It’s his first time vs. winners, yes, but these are maiden winners-only, so the class hike isn’t as big as it might otherwise be. SAMURAI WARRIOR broke his maiden here last April 5. He tailed off in his next two starts but has been freshened since and returns at the same level. NOBLE AND TRUE was slow into stride and no factor here Dec. 14. However, not only was he sluggish early, it was his first start in six months and came vs. $40K N2L foes. So, he now has a race under his belt and plummets in price.

FIFTH RACE

The light has apparently gone on for HOLLAND ROAD. The 3yo son of Quality Road didn’t do much in his first six starts but then came an easy win over maidens here Nov. 5 and another easy win in his first try vs. winners here Dec. 14. He not only appears to love this track, but while trainer Dilger risked him for a tag in his last few starts he takes no such risk with him here. SPECIAL STORY invades from SoCal with a number of good races on his resume. Yes, it’s his first time here but trainer Diodoro has done well the past year with other SoCal raiders. It’s also nice to see Diodoro place him where he can’t lose him via a claim. SET THE TRAPPE fizzled here Nov. 16 but that was going a mile. Ferraro not only saw fit to claim him

but brings him back at this shorter trip he may prefer, and with no tag attached.

SIXTH RACE

ORCHID PARTY might be set now. The filly dueled before tiring to 4th in her $50K debut here Nov. 24. Not only did Trainer Rudy see fit to plunk down $50K to claim her, he brings her back in a spot where he can’t lose her via another claim. He’s also been superb off the claim (34%). One of her two sibs is winner No Hayne No Gayne (2 wins, $99K). SCORPION BOWL had an odd trip in her debut here Nov. 18 as she pressed the pace, backed out of contention but then got going again in the lane to end up 4th. Trainer Rice is strong 2nd time out (30%) and this filly can benefit from that experience. One of her two sibs is winner New York’s Finest (4 wins, $164K). STARLITE MISSION was no factor here Dec. 16 but that was her first start in four months after showing talent in two starts last summer when running 2nd in each. She could bounce back to that form. Three of her four sibs are winners Starship Ace (2 wins, $65K), Starship Mercury (3 wins, $31K) and Elusive Starship (4 wins, $24K).

SEVENTH RACE

JEWEL CAN DISCO dueled and paid the price in a spot similar to this at BEL Sept. 22, fading to 8th as the 2-1 favorite. He’s been given plenty of time since to regroup and the works say it’s worked. He’s also proven off the bench. MIGHTY ZEALOUS remains a tough old pro and he’s on top of his game coming off two 2nds and a big win for $25K here last time out Dec. 22. Not only did Contessa claim him back that day after losing him the prior start, he moves up him up multiple price levels. GIANT IN THE MOON LITE has been stuck at this level for a long time but this summer/fall he posted a number of good outings in spots like this. He ended up a well-beaten 3rd last time out here Dec. 9 (beaten by 9 3/4 lengths) but that was also going 7fs. Today’s shorter trip may help.

EIGHTH RACE

AUDIBLE looks like a comer for Pletcher as the $500K son of Into Mischief handily beat maidens here Nov. 15 and then blasted winners here Dec. 6. He looks ready to take this step up in class. Of course, he better be as a rival like SEA FOAM is a proven commodity at this level, coming off a game win in the Notebook here Nov. 26. He’s done nothing wrong in five starts. JAYE JAYE romped in his first two starts so the son of multiple G1 SW Colonel John appears to have a bright future for Hall of Fame trainer Mott. He’s kin to Macagone (8 wins, $530K, 3 SWs, 2 SPs). HONOR UP ran 2nd to the top pick Nov. 15 and then came back to win by 11 3/4 lengths. EVALUATOR won the Sleepy Hollow vs. this caliber at BEL, while EMPIRE LINE easily won his debut here Dec. 1, a run which looks even better when you note the 2nd finisher Flash Drive came back to whip maidens by 6 3/4 lengths and 4th finisher Aqua Bel Sare came back to win the NY Stallion Stakes here.

NINTH RACE

ZENATO showed more speed in start No. 2 here Dec. 6 when dropped in for $50K before tiring to end up 6th. That was still an encouraging run and he drops further, which may do the trick. He might also be the controlling speed. Trainer Bond continues his strong meet (10 for first 32, 31%). PURRING ON EMPTY was no factor at any point in his debut at BEL Oct. 12 but not only was it his debut, it came on turf and routing. He’s been freshened, moves to dirt and sprinting, gets blinkers and has worked very nicely of late. PEQUENO GRANDE was unable to make a dent in his first two starts, but both came on turf vs. straight maidens so today’s move to dirt and drop in for a tag, the most significant drop in the game, may get him on track.