ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, MR MANNING

FIRST RACE

Saturday’s card at Tampa features a $100K stakes double that puts the spotlight on turf sprinters. In the opener, TOP HAT TIZZY gets the nod on the move back to both the main track and one turn, site of her best finishes to date. Those efforts also came for this price. CHAMPAGNE TEQUILA ran well on the cutback in distance last out and is a logical choice off the effort. OBVIOUS TWO lined up against Grade 1 rivals back in September at Saratoga.

SECOND RACE

MASTER CHIEF is a class play as one who has spent his career to date facing steeper. He also hooked a quality kind of winner last out in what was his first race in more than two months. For the out, MASTER CHIEF would seem to have reason to move forward. WARRANTED was second for a similar price last out at GPW and for the effort earned what ranks as this field’s best last-race Beyer Speed Figure. This will mark his first start at Tampa. SOBY JUNIOR ran well over the Tampa main track in his local debut last out and like that he has an age edge on top two as he is 4.

THIRD RACE

CAMILLE CLAUDEL picks up a bit more real estate on the move to seven-eighths and note she is a winner at this specialist’s kind of distance. She also is a winner over the local main track. ORIENTATE TO LUV is appealing as a six-time winner facing some less-experienced rivals. She was fourth last out in a race that has become a key one. The third-place finisher came back in her next start to account for a $12.5K starter at GPW, with a Beyer Figure of 72, and the fifth-place finisher, Seeknthegiantpearl, a conditioned allowance at PID, with a Beyer of 74. AXIAL LOAD ran well at this distance two back at Kee and could be sitting on a peak effort in her third out since August.

FOURTH RACE

HELMET HEAD can make a real impact with a repeat of his efforts from last winter at Gulfstream. He was favored against higher-priced rivals last out at Monmouth. The also-eligible MOJO RISING has recency on top choice, who is making his first out since June. As for MOJO RISING, he split the field for this tag last out at Tampa in what was his first race since since May. He would seem to have reason to move forward in his second start back. TRIPLE SERIOUS has run some competitive races at this level, while another of interest is SON OF SO, who owns the field’s best last-race turf Beyer Figure.

FIFTH RACE

The confidently-named SEEYAINTHETESTBARN was a fast-closing third against similar last out and figures to make good use of the added real estate he picks up in this spot. He hails from the barn of Loza, who is wrapping up one of his best years at the track. TOSS looks like a strong fit. He was third against steeper last out and the effort came at a distance similar to this sometimesdemanding trip of seven-eighths. MIKEBRAVOZEROTHREE exits same race as TOSS, finishing a decent fourth in what was this one’s career bow. He can move forward for the experience of a race.

SIXTH RACE

The first of the card’s two stakes, the Lightning City puts fillies and mares in the spotlight. MY SWEET DOVE exits a Claiming Crown division in which she finished second following a less-thanideal trip. The race went quite quick, too, and she is one who can be closer to the pace than she found herself in that race. Further adding to her appeal is the fact that she is a winner over the local course. SMILING CAUSEWAY is bred in the purple as a half-sister to the Grade 1 winners Smiling Tiger ($1.4M) and She’s a Tiger ($727K). She also brings excellent speed to the table and owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Speed Figure. SMILING CAUSEWAY in July was second to the fleet-footed Morticia in a stakes at Lrl. SYLPHIDE cuts back to one turn for her first start since early November and note she is a multiple winner at this turf sprint trip. She also is a well-bred sort as a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Cambodia ($641K).

SEVENTH RACE

MR MANNING picks up a bit more real estate and there are reasons to believe the added distance will suit based on his effort in a mile and a sixteenth stakes two back at Ind. He also exits a quick race and draws a post that might give De La Cruz options. DOODLE HOPPER exits same quick Claiming Crown division as top choice, finishing in front of that one. DOODLE HOPPER closed from well back and now moves back to a distance over which he is a winner at Tam. REIGNING CATFISH was fourth last out in a race that has become a key one. The fifth-place finisher, Cashel Rock, returned in his next start to account for an optional $30K claimer with a Beyer of 74, and the seventhplace finisher, Mexico Memories, an allowance at Haw, with a Beyer of 72. FOX ROX is out of a mare who won three stakes and banked $216K.

EIGHTH RACE

The second half of the stakes double Saturday drew a strong cast. PAY ANY PRICE is in the midst of a banner year. He’s put up four triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in 2017, with all of those numbers earned in turf sprints. PAY ANY PRICE also ran a big race off the bench last out, when, in his first start since July, he captured a Claiming Crown division on the front end. Since then, two of the horses he defeated have returned in their next starts to win: The third-place finisher, Sir Navigator, returned to take an $25K optional claimer at GP with a Beyer of 88 and the sixth-place finisher, Padilla, a $16K claimer at GP, with a Beyer of 89. EXTRAVAGANT KID has shown versatility in his last two starts, winning the Tamiami Handicap from just off the pace in September, then taking the Green Parrot wire-to-wire in October. He’s worked a near bullet for his first start since, and draws a post that might give Batista options. DUBINI was second last out to Rainbow Heir, a turf sprinter of note. CONQUEST ENFORCER is the class of the field as a Grade 2 winner of $520K. This marks his first start since June, when he ran in the North American-record Jaipur at Belmont, with three from that race returning to win stakes in their next starts, including Stormy Liberal in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.

NINTH RACE

R TRUE TALENT was stakes-placed last out at Tampa and now returns to the maiden ranks. The start last out was her first in blinkers and the career-high Beyer Figure of 54 that she earned is the best last-race number in this spot. PEARL’S OPINION was second last out in a quick maiden allowance at Churchill. May foal is a half-sister to stakes winner Sir Navigator ($190K). UNANIMITY exits same quick race as PEARL’S OPINION, finishing fourth. This one is a half-sister to Courtesan, a stakes winner at 2 who has earned $216K. TEN DEMERITS is from the multiple Grade 1-winning mare Pussycat Doll ($797K), while FASTER N BLAZES is out of a Grade 3 winner of $421K. The dam of EVENING TIDE was a multiple stakes winner of $203K and the race this one exits has produced two next-out winners.

TENTH RACE

ODACHI has more natural speed than most of her rivals, and that might give her a tactical advantage. She also has reason to move forward in what will be her second start since September. VIVA FOREVER exits same race as top choice, and note the race went in good time. For this trip, she draws a useful kind of trip. BELLA VINCENZA removes blinkers and is making her second start since September.