ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SINGLEFORAREASON

FIRST RACE

MOON KITTY, who crushed similar last out at Los Alamitos, and won a maiden race at Santa Anita last spring, is the choice in this $50k claiming sprint for 4yo fillies. It will not be easy. In her most recent win, she had a tactical edge from an outside post. Those posts are reversed; now she is drawn inside her main rival. Still think MOON KITTY is the one to beat, but SLY HUMOR benefits by the post draw. She drew near the outside, and figures for a pressing trip racing in the clear rather than taking pressure from the inside which is what happened last time. Close call between evenly matched fillies. VAI drops into a claiming race for the first time; she recently worked fast on this track. GO ON MARY figures off her recent win vs. older, but is drawn inside the speed types that are the top two choices. ADIOS CALI has a longshot chance if the speed backs up. This main track played fair to all running styles opening week; no bias.

SECOND RACE

HOTTALABAMBA finished a creditable second in her debut one month ago, worked fast since and is likely to improve second time out in a field filled mostly with first-time starters. She is trained by Bob Baffert, who also entered first-timer EMBOLDENED. The latter has a series of sharp works; she worked in company with the top choice Dec. 26. It appeared HOTTALABAMBA was going easier (work viewed on XTBV.com), but perhaps not by much. Sharp gate work Monday by EMBOLDENED suggests she is ready to fire first out. MOJGAN is the only other entrant (besides top choice) with racing experience. This is her start in California, first for Richard Baltas, and a return to a sprint. Late threat, possibly? COWBOYTAKEMAWAY worked well for her scheduled debut on Dec. 15, but scratched. Subsequent works only okay, but trainer Jerry Hollendorfer does not usually light them up in the morning.

THIRD RACE

Lots of speed in this N2L claiming sprint; the scenario benefits route-to-sprint FLY FAR AWAY. She is likely to be outrun early, she should pick them up late. She was scheduled to run Dec. 15, but scratched. She posted two easy works since; her stable is rolling. TROUBLESOME might be the speed of the speed, based on the fractions she set or pressed both recent starts. She drops from a starter allowance to $25k claiming N2L, and with a clean break might be the one to catch. She won’t get an easy trip, because several others have a similar running style. PRINCESS DORIAN drops in for a tag and switches to leading rider Evin Roman. CONQUEST FLATTERME, stablemate of the top choice, shows up for a tag for the first time in her second start following a long layoff. She can improve off her comeback, she might be a price. Tough race to kick off the pick six.

FOURTH RACE

After being thwarted four tries vs. special-weight maidens, TOWARDS THE LIGHT drops to maiden40 and returns to dirt. His career-best race was on this racetrack last spring; trainer Phil D’Amato and apprentice rider Evin Roman are 5-for-10 together since September. WILLISTON DUDE also drops to maiden-claiming for the first time, and also returns to what seems to be his preferred surface (dirt). This is his first start in nearly two months; he has run well fresh. The speed figures he earned his first two starts in fall 2016 are higher than any the top choice has earned. BOB’S BAD BOY is speed on the rail, could be the one they have to catch. DOMINANT DON is a first-off-the-claim maiden for a stable that has had much success with this move.

FIFTH RACE

MARTIN RIGGS drops slightly in class, from maiden special-weight to $100k maiden claiming, while returning to the turf course on which he ran the best race of his four-start career. He appears to have trained well; his stable had a big opening week (3 wins, 4 seconds from 13 starters). ‘RIGGS can win with a front-running or pace-pressing trip. The turf rails are at 30 feet for the first time this winter. HOLY GHOST adds blinkers and also drops slightly in class. His fifth-place finish last out was only okay; his “rally” was partly an optical illusion. The pace was fast early, slow late. MINISTER’S GLORY improved second out, a close fourth vs.

Cal-breds in his initial try on grass. Blinkers on, lightly raced, eligible to continue his improving pattern. Also-eligible MO OVER might be ranked too low. Sired by Uncle Mo, he may appreciate the switch to grass. He exits a highly rated dirt sprint, third after a slow start.

SIXTH RACE

SINGLEFORAREASON “should” win this $12.5k claiming sprint, restricted to non-winners of two. She faced better when last seen nearly a year ago, she has early speed and is likely to run her best race first start since October. This is her first start at the bottom level. Pete Eurton-trained comebackers recently have been firing. Eurton is 5-for17 since December 2016 with comebackers off six months or more. CANDY BOSS also drops to the bottom for the first time. She is quick enough to establish position from the inside post. First start in three months, expect her to fire. IT’S NOT SO EASY returns to the sprint game and will be picking them up late. TODOS SANTOS has run races that figure; gets a top rider in Rafael Bejarano this time.

SEVENTH RACE

Route-to-sprint BATTLEGROUND STATE gets the call in a competitive turf sprint for California-bred allowance fillies and mares. ‘STATE set/pressed a strong pace last time at two turns, and surrendered late to finish third. She returns from a two-month freshening, has speed to be forwardly placed, and definitely has improved since she finished sixth on the downhill course in her career debut last summer. CANDY RULER figures for a forwardly placed trip in a race that is relatively short on pace. SPEAKERS will be sprinting for the first time in the seventh starter of her career. She has win and two seconds from six starts at a mile on turf; milers often do well in downhill turf sprints. She will be rolling late. WINEMENOW is a course specialist; LAYNEE has been showing speed on the main track. Difficult race.

EIGHTH RACE

Close call between droppers SAUCE ON SIDE and MISCHIEVIOUS LASS in this route for maidenclaiming 3yo fillies. The edge goes to SAUCE ON SIDE, who exits a sprint and should be closer to the lead than last time. Her only previous main-track route was an okay third vs. special-weight fillies at Del Mar. MISCHIEVIOUS LASS adds blinkers and drops from special-weight to maiden-30. Based on figures, she could start favored. SPIRITUALIST adds blinkers, drops from maiden-40 and makes her first start in two months for a hot stable.