ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, GILDED

FIRST RACE

WRITE ME A SONG ran well in his debut. He dueled all the way but couldn’t hold off a fast-finishing fellow first-timer as he lost by a nose. He did run gamely and has a solid work since. He’s the first foal of a dam who won only one of eight starts, and the young sire is still looking for his first winner. KONA BREEZE drops in for a tag for the first time. He ran all right sprinting, showing improvement in his second start. He flattened out in a mile race in his last start, but his fractions indicate he’ll be tough here. ALAND makes his debut today. Has a solid work tab and all six siblings are winners and have shown the ability to win early. Barn does generally well with first-timers but is 0-for-12 the past two years with runners debuting for tags.

SECOND RACE

ONE PUTT PAR has won five straight on the main track here, holding on last time to win a torrid stretch duel by a nose. She has been sitting a bit closer early of late and really seems to know where the finish line is here. ESPERANZA’S MOBILE has enjoyed great success here in the past. She sat behind the top pick last time and extended her to the max in falling a nose short. She was favored over the top pick last time and could easily reverse the decision today. WINTER’S NEST steps up off a strong win at this distance. She is another who likes this track and has been successful at this distance. Her style is similar to the top pair, and this may be a heat where racing luck determines the winner.

THIRD RACE

MANGITA is making her debut here as she makes her GGF debut. She’s outrun her breeding on the turf and has been working steadily here since her last start on Oct. 26. She has speed but gets a perfect draw outside EXACTAMENTE who wants the lead. She should be able to sit where she wants, and her form says she’ll be tough. Exactamente likes the lead and can be tough to run down. She’s been first under the wire in four of her past six starts, although she was disqualified to second once, and was second in the other two. She is stepping up. FOREVERINSUMMER steps up after winning two straight in wire-to-wire fashion against easier. She loves the turf and has hit the board in all five career grass starts. She’s 4-3-1-0 here but will have competition for the pace and will likely be sitting behind the second pick.

FOURTH RACE

NATIVE CHIEFTAIN scored a win on a big drop following a freshener last time. He steps up a notch today with two works since that solid score. He can be a pace factor here. Both career victories have come her at this distance so we’ll tab him in this ‘Bold Chieftain’ special that includes three runners by the locally based millionaire sire. DYNAMITE RIDE returns from a six-week freshener after losing by a neck at this level in first start off a claim. Has a best-of-127 bullet among his four works last month to help maintain fitness. PEPPER AND SALT won sprinting two back and was claimed. Was overmatched on the turf in his first start for new barn. Though he’s 0-for-1 on the main track at this distance, he did run second at it on the turf against better. Should make his presence felt late.

FIFTH RACE

PATTIN FOR A DANCE was claimed from a win by sharp barn that wins 39 percent off the claim. She’s dropping a notch for this after running for the lowest level of her career while winning her GGF debut. Her closing kick will be tough to hold off. PADAWON is not a win machine, but she’s pretty consistent. She’s been the runner-up in her past two starts and is on an uptick. She’s a contender and one you need to include on your exotics tickets. THE GREY MOUSSE was no threat at this level last time even though she showed improvement over her winning effort against cheaper. She got shuffled back into the lane but did pass tired rivals late.

SIXTH RACE

Get out your red pen and draw a line through that last start for GILDED. She came into the race off a win and had been part of the exacta in five of six starts over this course. Her saddled slipped in the last race and she had to be eased. Look for a return to form today with two easy works since then to maintain her form. FAST BID adds blinkers for the first time today after being claimed in her last start. She graduated over this course two back but did little in her bow vs. winners after racing wide. DAHLIA AZUL didn’t run that bad in her turf debut down south. All four siblings are winners, and her three older siblings have all won on turf. She drops and stretches out while returning to the grass here.

SEVENTH RACE

THIRTY PEPPERONIS was claimed for this tag last time. He’s coming off a solid 2017 and is at his best here. He’s done better against cheaper of late but is a consistent check earner at this level. Though he shows no wins at this distance on the main track, he has won at the distance on the turf so the stretchout causes little concern. MY FRIEND GEORGE steps up off a nice win at this distance last time. He sat closer last time but the pace was slower as he ran his normal race. Has an easy work since then and figures to be a factor in the lane. MAXX THE GIANT makes his first start after running third at this level nine weeks ago. Would like to see another work or two, but his works have all been solid.

EIGHTH RACE

A year and a half on the sidelines didn’t present any problems for POWER OF NINE when she returned to the races and scored a solid victory in her comeback. The effort showed that she had retained the form she had shown when being claimed from a win in May 2016. Is a bounce possible? Sure, but barn hasn’t rushed her back, and she has two solid works since her comeback. Other pluses are she loves the track and the distance. RUN SOPHIA RUN was favored over the top pick as she returned to GGF last time. She stuck her head in front in the lane but was outfinished and wound up an easy second. Both are stepping up a notch today. AMANDANA graduated at this level and distance but has been meeting better in her races against winners. She’s cutting back in distance from recent routes, but watch her in the lane.