ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, REGAL FORCE

FIRST RACE

MARBLE FALLS looms the favorite despite the layoff, as he’s dropping in price and he’s the apparent loose speed, but the fact is he should prove tough to reel in if he’s able to establish a clear lead without much trouble; nice work for this adds to the appeal. POLYGRAM could be the “second” speed in this sprint, and that’s a good spot to be in if the pace is controlled, as he should get first run at the returning pacesetter; off the pace last time on a track which favored speed. KEEP ME GROUNDED gets back to seven furlongs in his first start off the claim and this does appear to be his best distance.

SECOND RACE

HOUSE OF CORTEZ was wide on the opening turn and off the pace in a race which didn’t feature a great deal of pace, and that trip made it tough for him to make an impact late; can move forward in a big way here given some help from the pacesetters. PARTICIPATION CUP was 2nd in that same race and he’s an obvious threat back in against similar; he’s another who was against the race flow there, and he did well to get the place with a decent late run in the lane. KING STORMY may be worth using at a very big price, as he could be the main speed from his inside post, and this race doesn’t appear to contain all that much pace.

THIRD RACE

MAJOR HIT appeared to run into some stretch traffic in that last race, and when he galloped out strongly past the wire it seemed to confirm he had more run than he was able to show in the lane; barn has decent stats with stretch-outs. ASK THE HEIR caught the eye with a middle move in a race which was controlled by the speeds, including the runaway winner at 2/5; improvement expected on the drop in class. KINDER adds blinkers and stretches out; he made a decent late run in his last after running 2nd as the favorite two back.

FOURTH RACE

MORE TO ADORE goes long for the first time but her pedigree suggests that won’t be an issue, and she has some solid breezes showing for her first start since October; this is the lowest tag she has been in for while racing on the grass. BUBBLY AGAIN was no threat in her debut run at Woodbine but she meets much lesser here, and the barn does well with horses making this class drop; certainly worth a shot if near her 12-1 Morning Line price. HINT OF MARY hasn’t been out since August but she fits well here in terms of her best Beyers; she also ran well over this course two back, in her last appearance on the grass.

FIFTH RACE

HAY WIRED did benefit from a favorable race flow when he closed for the show last time but he figures to be nicely set up once again today, and he can make the last run with a clean trip; that race seemingly came up faster than par for the class and distance, and the winner returning to score again in his next start may have verified that. MOONLIT METEOR is another who stands to benefit from the projected pace scenario, as he’ll also be looking to close ground in the lane; he was 2nd in each of his last two but he has a solid overall win percentage. SUPER BEAU meets better but he was game in that last one and he could fall into a trip, as the speeds should be coming back to him.

SIXTH RACE

BELGRANO’s dam was a multiple stakes winner going long on dirt (won 10 races and $713K) but wire War Front wins at a decent rate with his turf runners (12%) and trainer Ignacio Correas does well with horses on this surface; the barn has also excelled

with runners removing blinkers (43% from a small sample), making this colt worth a look at a price.

SHORTLIST is a little tough to take at a short price given the string of runner-up finishes but he obviously has to be strongly considered off his consistent figures and the strong connections. HAPPY

WANDERER has failed despite loose leads in each of his last two starts but he could last here if able to back down the fractions some more.

SEVENTH RACE

GLITTERING JEWEL wasn’t close to the easy winner in that local debut last time but she didn’t get a lot of pace help there, and she figures to get a quicker tempo to chase this afternoon; nice work for this, which suggests she may handle this new surface. MARLINSPIKE gets back on the main track after trying turf herself last time, and the Beyer she posted in her lone try on the dirt makes her the one to beat today; likely short price the main knock. BEECHWOOD didn’t earn the best of figures for that runner-up finish last time but she looked good visually, closing strongly late; needs to step it up some but that’s certainly within her reach in her 2nd start off the layoff, and given faster splits up front.

EIGHTH RACE

REGAL FORCE was well off the pace last time in a race where two of the three speeds in the field completed the exacta, yet he closed with interest and galloped out well; this looks like a much better set up for him, and he can be expected to make his presence felt late if he gets a clean trip and the fractions are indeed swifter. RIZWAN is another who stands to benefit from a lively tempo, he was a few lengths behind the top pick when they met here on December 2nd but he wasn’t pushed hard once it was clear he was beaten, and he closed well enough in that last try. MADEYOURPOINT faces open claimers after winning two straight against restricted foes but he does have the right running style, and his figures put him in the mix.

NINTH RACE

HALEY’S THUNDER is out of an unraced dam who produced six prior winners, and she has some decent works showing for this; trainer Gerald Bennett is also represented by Prima Gold in here, and the barn excels with debut maiden claimers. TENDER VALUE cuts back from a turf route and the barn does well with horses making this surface switch; this is the lowest level she’s been at yet in her short career. PRIMA GOLD is kin to five winners, and picks up Gallardo for her bow; will be interesting to see the betting patterns involving her and her uncoupled stablemate.

TENTH RACE

TIME ROCK gets back on the turf and this is clearly her best game, as she has sprinted on the grass three times and she ran well in all of those tries; class rise mostly a mirage, as she’s facing bottom-level non-winners of two once again, this time on the grass, yet she figures to be overlooked some as a result of the difference in price. BARB N’ DON has some of the better Beyers in this field, and as a result she’ll be favored; clearly dangerous, though this drop into a claimer off the layoff is at least a little suspicious. REVOLVER SESSIONS hasn’t been out since the summer but she is a proven turf sprinter, and her most recent proved to be a key race.