ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, STURDY ONE FIRST RACE

ESKIMO ROSES went too fast on the lead his last two starts, and paid the price in both. He set a wild pace last time going a mile, led to inside the furlong pole, and faded to sixth; his runner-up finish two back on this downhill course was solid. Blinkers off, he benefits from a rider switch to Geovanni Franco, and can win if he rations his speed. If not, JUNGLE WARFARE might be along from slightly off the pace. He has been losing his punch in longer races, now shortens to a turf sprint for the first time. ‘WARFARE handled grass both times; the mile distance was just too far. Six and a half on the hill an ideal trip. First-time starter SCRAMBLED is a Tapit colt owned by Little Red Feather Racing, produced by LRF’s Grade 1 winner Egg Drop. KNIGHT DISRUPTOR returns to the downhill course on which he ran the best race of his career, a third-place finish behind the top choice in October. COLOSI is a City Zip gelding moving to grass with an upset chance on the surface switch.

SECOND RACE

This allowance sprint for Cal-breds is a good spot to take a shot with sharp claiming veteran SWISS MINISTER. His recent speed figures are just about fast enough for this class level, he is 5-for-8 on the Santa Anita track, and his stable had a big December with five wins. ‘MINISTER ran a winning race last time in a $12.5k claiming starter allowance, missing by a head after breaking from the inside post. He moves outside, has speed and the winning habit. Can we get 4-1? That would be a betting number. HARDCORE TROUBADOR put it all together in his fourth career start, crushing maidens by more than seven lengths with a sky-high 86 Beyer Figure. He has two sharp recent workouts at Del Mar that suggest he might reproduce that victory. If so, he can win. No other entrant recently ran close to an 86. BOLSTER adds blinkers and returns to the track on which he won a starter allowance in fall. Outside post, pressing trip, logical contender.

THIRD RACE

In a race with plenty of heat, BOY HOWDY could get a great trip from the outside post. He has speed but might find a cozy spot positioned in the clear just off the speed. The most recent start by ‘HOWDY, runner-up vs. Cal-breds, marked a return to form. DISTINCTIVE B is the “best horse,” but compromised by the inside draw with at least two others outside that have the same style. DISTINCTIVE B might be the speed of the speed, but he will be hounded by MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC and TOUGH BUT NICE. Lots of pace, which could set it up for the top choice or PAPA TURF. They have similar pressing/stalking styles.

FOURTH RACE

CORDIALITY, runner-up both recent starts at this N2X level, is the one to beat in this filly-mare turf mile. CORDIALITY has improved since she was claimed last summer and moved to grass. Six starts on turf produced two wins, three seconds. She has tactical speed but does not necessarily require the lead, a repeat of either of her last two might be enough. MOONLESS SKY defeated the top choice last out, winning by a head on the Del Mar turf. The move to Santa Anita is fine for MOONLESS SKY, whose four turf starts in Arcadia produced three wins. Big threat from off the pace. SWEET CHARITY has not raced since April; her form here last winter and spring is plenty good enough. She hit the board all four U.S. starts, three-time runner-up at this N2X level and third in a graded stakes. Looks like she has trained well for her comeback. FIZZY FRIDAY moves up in class off an okay N1X win. She changed trainers since raced. PRINCESS PRINCESS looms an upset candidate, first start in California for her new trainer Richard Baltas, whose recent acquisitions often outperform their odds.