ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, SON OF MINE

FIRST RACE

SON OF MINE ran a deceptively good race after blowing the start and then making a wide run to contention when switched to dirt back on November 3rd, and he also ran better than it looks when turned back at this level last month in a race where he was forced to chase from the outside over a track that featured a strong rail; racing as a new gelding can help 4yo who hasn’t lived up to his potential while often breaking slowly. FULL OF MINE turns back in distance and drops back down in class after getting run out by better horses last time; good effort two back vs. a much stronger field for the level. LIGHTNING BUZZ a contender with his typical race, though he is facing better for the level in the form of the top two; was against that strong inside track last time, but he spent most of that race two back racing with a string rail.

SECOND RACE

UCANTCATCHMYBREATH came through with a solid effort on debut while on a wide chase after a strong winner on the lead, and he only weakened late in that race; stretches out with something to build on. THERESA’S BOY has hit the board in each of his last three starts without threatening to win any of them now drops another notch while stretching out for the first; doubt he has much more improvement in him, but he enters with the top two figures in the field. BINKSTER stretched out to this distance for his second start and contested the pace all the way around the track before weakening late, and he still held 2nd over BEACH ACCESS; likely to be using his speed once again.

THIRD RACE

RACING RAVEN appeared to be a horse in need of his debut, as he was outrun after getting bumped at the start and took plenty of dirt before racing on all through the stretch; improved last time but had no chance with sharp debut winner Go Get the Munny. WESTERDALE paired up 75 Beyers for his two starts at the end of last year vs. some good 2yos, and he likely moved too soon when weakening in the late stages of that last one; starts back with blinkers on as the clear horse to beat. OPERATOR likely to need one debuting for Mott, who tends to give them a race, and who doesn’t have strong numbers with first-time starters in dirt routes, but this colt has some pedigree being out of a sister to the good dirt miler Rally Cry.

FOURTH RACE

COMBAT CONTROLLER has run well in his last three races while stepping up in class each time; steps up again while in form, and, while he has been contesting the pace in his recent starts, he has also been effective from off the pace. MR. DOUGIE FRESH hasn’t always run his race on dirt, but there are some pretty good efforts in there, and he ran well over that muddy track last time while contesting the pace in front of an in-form Borsa Vento; projected pace of this race could make things hard for him. SIR BALLANTINE getting a positive trainer change for his 4yo debut, which he will be making as a new gelding; lone win so far came in a 10-furlong race in May of last year, the domain of slow 3yos.

FIFTH RACE

ARTHUR AVENUE has a long layoff to overcome, but he is getting significant class relief for his first start back, and he lands in a race where he projects to be prominent from the outset; wet track wouldn’t hurt his chances. CATCH A CAB has so far been more competitive on turf than on dirt, but thought his lone main track start as a 2yo was an underrated effort, and he was always at least three-wide over that gold rail track on January 26th; can have one more chance, at least. MR. MASSENA continued to find a way to come

up short on turf late last year, which fairly calls his will to win into question; handles dirt, and the change of scenery off the claim may do underachieving gelding some good. SIXTH RACE Returning for a tag after missing the second half of 2017 is not likely the best sign for HAVE ANOTHER, as he is a talented horse who has run much better than his overall record may indicate; questions are there to be answered, but he is going to be tough in this race if he is ready off the bench. ASPHALT PAVING won clear over maiden claimers with a competitive figure early last year, and he returned at the end of the season with a pair of good races vs. two-life claimers; logical contender in weaker race for the level, unless the top one comes back running. AMEN ALLEY contested the pace all the way before prevailing in lone career dirt start with a 77 Beyer, but that race took place over two years ago, and he has endured a pair of extended layoffs since; lightly-raced 6yo starts back on the drop, though doubt his connections would be sorry to see him go.

SEVENTH RACE

CAN’TWEALLGETALONG faced a couple of tough fields on the main track early on, then switched back to dirt off the layoff and made a wide run to contention before flattening out in the stretch in a race that came back fast for the level (78 Beyer for the winner). Thought he would do better with that one out of the way, but he failed to fire behind a winning entrymate last time; one more chance to improve as he cuts back to sprint. MIRACOLO has been breezing right along for a very good debut trainer and he has found the right kind of field, assuming he has some ability; Bustin Stones colt is a half to a pair of winners from this dam. LAST CHANT got bumped at the start and was outrun in his debut for a $50k tag, and he came right back at that same level for his second start and failed to make a run over a track that was kind to speed; drops a bit for his third start while adding blinkers and lasix for a sharp trainer.

EIGHTH RACE

DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING finding wins difficult to come by since arriving in NY, but he keeps showing up and running bang-up races vs. some strong competition; class relief for his third start off the claim for Diodoro, and a wet track wouldn’t hinder his chances. TUSK rallied over a sloppy track to close down a weaker field in his dirt debut two starts back, and he raced on all the way without threat last time vs. a tougher field; closer projects to have plenty of pace out in front of him in this race. T R CREW took advantage of a well-timed ride to close down an early-moving Hammerin Aamer with a career-best figure three starts back, and he has backed that race up pretty well in his last two starts without winning; fits well here in his current form.

NINTH RACE

POLAR CITY gave way after contesting the pace in the mud two starts back, but his two surrounding races are going to make him tough in this race, including that last one where he was sent from the start while forcing the favorite to concede to him, and then raced the eventual winner of that race gamely in the stretch before settling for 2nd; speed plays in this field, which isn’t as tough as that last one. LUCKY LOU PAL dropping out of a trio of tougher races since returning from the layoff; mile may not be his best distance, but he has run well enough to contend here in the past, and a wet track wouldn’t hinder his chances. It’s been awhile since SANDY STRIKES was competitive late in a race, but he has mostly been kept to tougher races throughout his 24-race career, and he actually fits very well here if he can jump up with one of his better efforts; a price worth using somewhere.