ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MISS NOSY

FIRST RACE

Some combination of a sloppy track and getting a close look at the parking lot racing into the homestretch last time set SUMMER RUN back below his his previous form. A bounce-back performance, which seems very plausible, lands his second win. BALKAN hasn’t gotten a fair shot in either of his two post-long-layoff starts and has room to improve if you are willing to believe he’s not somehow inherently diminished compared to his 2017 self - though that’s a real possibility. WILKO’S GOLDENEYE’s last route-sprint move produced a distant seventh-place finish, but we have higher hopes this time around!

SECOND RACE

Don’t want to say “now or never” for HERMANS GOLD, but it’s hard to imagine him finding an easier spot than this race, a $10K maiden-claimer with a six-horse field that includes two first-timers and a six-time starter who loses by wide margins every race. Herman didn’t seem to especially enjoy the stretch to two turns last time and appears a little more competent sprinting. Unless unexpected pace shows, he could find himself closer to the lead - and glory! - than in his previous one-turn races. Tried to talk myself into ROBBIE’s $10K MCL pre-Lasix performance two back as adequate to suggest he might improve enough to topple Herman, but though he’s the second-most likely winner, I couldn’t quite get there. Firster BIG BAD BEN has at least hinted at mild signs of morning life.

THIRD RACE

If you’re willing to excuse HAVE HOPE’s most recent start (“sound bump,” sloppy track - both could be applied) she definitely looks like the most likely winner here, but perhaps won’t be bet that way. It would also be fair to wonder if something has gone amiss. ANTIETAM CREEK won’t appeal to those who need to see a contending Beyer Speed Figure on the page, but she does have a slew of close finishes at or about this class level, does the 5.5 furlongs, and was moved early and wide last out in her first start back from a short break. STORMY MAMA a useful “under” horse for verticals and might have more pace at which to make her late run - a run that has come up short 49 out of 53 starts.

FOURTH RACE

BASH took some action going off at 5/1 making her debut Jan. 15 and ran like a standard first-time starter with some ability, kind of just going around there without doing a ton of racing. It’s what “they” tend to call a “useful debut,” and she has come back with an encouraging string of works suggesting she’ll improve second out for a barn that is perfect - perfect! - with the smallest sample size possible of second-time starters. Blue collar SISTER PATRICIA has earned $10K more than her $42K purchase price despite still being a maiden. Second or third in eight starts, and with just five others entered here that string is all but certain to continue. If the top pick doesn’t step forward, it looks like graduation day. LEMON DROP KITTY is kind of a poor woman’s Sister Patricia only less proven in one-turn dirt races like this.

FIFTH RACE

MISS NOSY was a distant third Feb. 3 behind two horses she meets again here, but that’s all right. Might have “needed” that first start back from a break, and connections that claimed her for just $7.5K last June still value her enough to hold firm in $7.5K starters rather than go back to claiming. All things - including form last fall - considered, she seems likely to make a forward move here. STAR EIGHTY made her second-after-layoff improvement out when she won at this level racing one furlong farther. See little reason to suspect she won’t come back with something similar, though there probably is more speed this time than last. LADY TERP needs a strong pace to develop if she’s going to get there in time going 7 furlongs.

SIXTH RACE

Lodged within OH SO LOVELY’s six career starts, four at the MSW level, one in a stakes race, is a $16 maiden-claimer going 6f at LRL in which

she was second by a nose. Those are the conditions she gets back to today, though you have to draw a line through a dud of a comeback run last out. I can do that. PARCHED GHOST flashed a hint of speed first out before showing less of everything last time. But she’s first Lasix now and probably edging down toward the proper level.

LADY BY CHOICE has the form of a win contender, and maybe she will win, but she’s already gone through one barn change and class drop looking for the right level, and a second such move suggests connections would at this point just like to move on. Hard to get geared up taking a short price in such situations.

SEVENTH RACE

BEAUTIFUL MAIDEN was a $5K maiden-claimer in June at Delaware, and now she’s knocking on door of $42K N1X allowance-race win. Maybe she just loves LRL, since her transformation coincided with first start over the local surface. Just taking her form at face value, the one-turn mile looks ideal and all she needs to do is hold serve to win. Copes just fine with inside runs, so rail-draw perhaps not that strong a negative factor. SNEAKY BETTY one of two for the same owner (Super C Racing) uncoupled and for different trainers - a stern reminder that this is not your father’s racing era. SB makes what seems like a lateral class move and has gotten in three works for high-percentage barn since even third last time. CHARITY STRIPE a trainer change since last and gets off the rail. Not at all implausible.

EIGHTH RACE

CANDYCOATED DAME improved and improved late last year following Claudio claim. Hard to say if she just went over the top last time and isn’t coming back again right away, or if a wide draw & trip going 7f at PRX, her first time away from LRL since last summer, stopped her run. Trainer made this race go with two entrants, and MISSCHIEF MAAS looks just about as capable as her uncoupled stablemate, the top pick. Not keen on rail draw, and while her overall form has a smoother line than Dame’s, she hasn’t gotten quite as high, either. SOCIALLY

DRIVEN in the abstract takes a considerable step up in class, but given the actual complexion of this field she might be sharp enough to make an impact anyway. Pace factor’s chances might hinge on how fast filly to her outside wants to go.

NINTH RACE

JUMPING MICHELLE returned to action 2/9 following a five-month break with one of the two best races among five in her career. She’ll have to stay the one-turn mile having never gone beyond six furlongs, but should be on or near the lead in what looks like a pretty soft spot. AFFEZIONAMENTE made second-start improvement last out when stretched to a mile from a sprint with blinkers added despite serious trouble at the start. Plenty of upside with better luck. WELLY looks like a win player if her turf form from career debut in lone start last Oct. 17 transfers to dirt, and the pedigree says main track as much as grass, but first run PPs at least show no works, and it’s hard to have any idea what the horse has been doing (training, hopefully!) during the down time.