ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SPRING FOLLY

FIRST RACE

BLAME US ALL never really panned out after bringing a big ticket at auction a few years ago but he did win his first two career starts prior to arriving in NY, and he has sprinted effectively from few attempts in his career; turns back second off the Diodoro claim after dueling the pace and staying gamely vs. a better field last time. Aside from that second start back in allowance company in December, RANSOM NOTE has run well in all five starts since returning from a layoff that began last summer, and he, too, was contesting the pace most recently before just getting outfinished late; good post on the outside of the other speeds. LIGHTNING BUZZ was against a strong inside track when wired by MISSLE BOMB in his first start off the claim, but has otherwise found good form for this trainer recently; last time was likely a better time to be with him, but he was clearly best there with a good finish through the stretch.

SECOND RACE

MERCURIAN went to Laurel and failed to come through for an excellent second-out trainer, despite dropping in class, but she may have gotten a little unlucky there while drawing in against Goodonehoney, who returned to win a stakes race in her next start by seven lengths with an 86 Beyer; not facing anyone capable of that kind of race in this spot. WAY OVER BUDGET showed speed and tired in two-turn turf route in her second career start, then came to NY and was rated early before failing to make any kind of run at all on the main track; may simply not be able to stand up on dirt, but wonder if she won’t get a much more aggressive ride this time. JUST BLING IT tracked the pace and never had enough as the favorite in disappointing effort ahead of WAY OVER BUDGET last time; first two career starts did feature faster paces for the level, and she showed enough in those spots to contend here.

THIRD RACE

DUNE BUGGY blew out a weak field in her main track debut then tried a much tougher spot prior to a short layoff, before returning to take a tough beat after doing all the hard work on a fast and contested pace at this level last month; willing to give her one more chance in field where the shorter prices have had their chances and haven’t appeared to be very good. PAULA’S PISTOL earned a 75 Beyer while a mile clear in second at this level last time, and she is a very likely winner if able to come back with a similarly fast race in this spot; that race wasn’t exactly a thing of beauty visually, but Stay Fond did come back to win again with a 71 Beyer. MY GIRL ANNIE got unlucky a few times early on in her career while facing some much better horses; dropped to win as a heavy favorite most recently, and did so in a race that featured a very slow pace, but she may be better judged on some of her earlier efforts, which give her a real chance in here.

FOURTH RACE

SARDONYX returning on short rest with a class drop after once again failing to race competitively at the MSW level; hard to believe that she’ll find herself in a much better spot than this one as the year goes on. PANA ELIANNE did her best in a couple of races at this level as a 3yo, but she didn’t have enough either time, though she was in some stretch traffic behind an upset winner in that June 4th try; drops back down for second start off the layoff after not putting forth much of an effort at Gulfstream, and will switch to a new trainer for this. GERANIUM a first-time starter landing in a likely spot for one of the best debut trainers on the grounds; has quite a bit of pedigree to be starting out at this level, as she is a half to three turf winners from her multiple graded stakesplaced dam, who won four times on grass and is a sister to the multiple graded stakes-winning