ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, MIGHTY SCARLETT

FIRST RACE

Closing day is upon us of the spring meet at Keeneland .... things get started with a far below average maiden claimer drew three first timers and three fillies whom have never hit the board in their careers. At least SOHNI managed a fourth in one race, coming three starts ago, and though her last two races have resulted in rear-half finishes, she had excuses for those dismal efforts. She went to the sidelines after one race, seemingly the result of a physical setback, and last time she figured to need a race when running on the grass in a comeback. GEORGY GIRL is one of the first timers, and merits respect for connections that can strike with an inexperienced horse; slow works, however, and draws the fence, a position from which many first timers break slowly or inwardly. Another debuting filly, FOREVER IN YOUR FAVOR, shows one quick half mile breeze over this track, but is by a turf sire in Temple City, and her works going five eighths haven’t been nearly as quick as her shorter ones.

SECOND RACE

MIGHTY SCARLETT, by elite turf sire Scat Daddy, debuted with a runner-up finish at Tampa, and figures to improve second out for trainer Chad Brown, who headed into the last week of the meet here with an astounding 17-8-3-1 record with turf horses. SMART SHOT owns marginally higher Beyers than the top choice, positing those figures with a third and fifth at Gulfstream on the lawn; not as much upside, though - having already raced four times and also having to shake off a little bit of rust after three months off. DAYFA debuted with a close sixth in what seemed a salty group of maidens at Gulfstream first out on Mar. 11; two bullet works on the Gulfstream lawn since for Bill Mott.

THIRD RACE

LILBITOFJAM is aggressively spotted in this $16,000 claimer, so much so that she seems like claim bait, but trainer Tom Amoss has a history with winning with these types before they get moved on to new homes; quite honest with a 9-3-4-1 record, though all but one of those starts came in restricted Louisiana-bred contests. RACEY REECEY has the benefit of a race over the track, managing a third here Apr. 13, though she was never a threat to win; largely productive in main-track starts since being claimed by Bernie Flint for $10,000 in September. CRACK YOUR WHIP is a deep closer that catches plenty of speed to set up her rally; a logical candidate for use underneath in the gimmicks.

FOURTH RACE

BELTWAY is returned to his preferred surface on dirt after chasing the pace and weakening in a grass race at Fair Grounds Mar. 23. Somewhat surprisingly, that race still earned him a careerbest Beyer of 78 after previously posting figures in the 65-72 range; narrow edge in what seems a close call among the top three. LOVE THAT LUTE and KAHRAMANI are a pair of uncoupled Norm McKnight trainees that ran well enough to hit the board against similar stock at Oaklawn; slightly prefer ‘LUTE since he goes first off the claim and has back class, though it should be noted that KAHRAMANI won over this surface last fall.

FIFTH RACE

This maiden contest seems competitive. SIPPIN KITTEN improved second out for trainer Mike Maker with a runner-up finish Apr. 8, and though her speed figure wasn’t flashy, a 69, perhaps she can build upon that in her second race of the year and with more ground to aid her kick. NEVISIAN SUNSET has Chad Brown in her corner - suggesting she is a contender on that basis alone - though her two races in Florida were just okay, a fourth and a third. STYLE ICON managed to close for third Mar. 31 at Gulf despite a dawdling pace that didn’t

play to her style. Jose Ortiz notably rides this one, and his agent might have had multiple options as he is often a go-to jock for Maker and Brown.

SIXTH RACE

Taking a price shot with LET ME LOOSE, who has gone from ninth to fourth to second in three starts while racing in low-level maiden claimers on the turf at Tampa; capable of threatening if he can handle the switch from turf to dirt and the price figures to be inflated due to low-profile connections. FULLBACK FOYE is 0 for 20, but in the right spot to try to pick up that elusive victory, as this is a rather suspect lot; ran competitively on dirt at Gulfstream over the winter after running seventh here in the fall. MARRIAGE COUNSELOR was soundly beaten when third Apr. 8 at Keeneland, though against what seemed a far more talented cast of maiden claimers; improving with experience, as many of Maker runners do.

SEVENTH RACE

TAKE THAT FOR DATA has a second and win in two starts on grass, and seems a more talented horse than his ordinary Beyers suggest; overcame a wide trip to win his latest in New Orleans and trainer Brad Cox is dominating, whether he is running horses this year in Louisiana, Arkansas or Kentucky. Deep closer SKY PROMISE was given a couple stakes spins over the Turfway Poly this winter, first closing to be second Feb. 23 in the John Battaglia before running sixth in the Jeff Ruby; back on his best surface on turf, he seems a move-up candidate with blinkers coming off and a drop into the allowance ranks. SNIPER KITTEN narrowly won a straight maiden race Mar. 17 at Gulfstream in which he ran greenly in his second start. He surged into the lane like he was going to be a clear winner, seemed to let off the gas in midstretch, and then fought one late to earn a nose decision with a number of horses surged alongside him in the lane.

EIGHTH RACE

MANNERLY just ran third in a stakes race in New Orleans, and though that race came on turf, she seems as skilled on dirt. She beat recent Doubledogdare winner Valadorna on dirt at Churchill, albeit with a perfect rail-skimming ride; reunited with Leparoux, who was up for her maiden victory in June at Churchill. CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS shows up every time, or at least, most every time; She has been fourth or better in seven straight races, and just won a second-level allowance at Fair Grounds; bred to have no trouble with the distance, though she’s been managed like trainer Ian Wilkes believes she wants a long sprint or a short route; yet to race as far as 1 1/16 miles in her 14-race career. SWEET LEGACY lacked the speed to keep up going six furlongs Apr. 6, beating just one horse in a nine-horse field. Her efforts in longer races have been much better; has the route speed to be prominent from the start against this cast.

NINTH RACE

Millionaire DADDYS LIL DARLING appears to be in another league than the rest of these from a class perspective, having earned more than the rest of her five rivals combined. She had no trouble with 1 1/4 miles in winning the American Oaks in December, and if she can relax over the three turns of this lengthy 1 1/2-mile test, she ought to be tough to beat a short price. DARING DUCHESS turned in her usual good accounts in graded company at Gulfstream this winter while setting the pace, her preferred style; did rate just off the pace in winning the Keertana last May at Churchill, leaving Ortiz with the option of rating her if SULLY’S DREAM comes out gunning. MOM’S ON STRIKE won four straight, including a couple stakes, before a flat effort when fourth in her final race of the New Orleans winter. Having raced mostly at 1 1/6 miles or shorter, she is very much of an unknown in terms of staying the distance.

TENTH RACE

The Keeneland meet concludes with maidens on the grass. Here, preference goes to TRIPLE DOG DARE, who is interestingly tried on the turf by Cox after racing exclusively on dirt over his five-race career. Others have grassier pedigrees than he does, but the barn is hitting an absurd 29-percent clip with first-time grass horses. C C RIDER and SAY THE WORD are the ones with the most established turf form. The former held second after setting the pace on the lawn at Gulfstream, while the former was fourth as part of a blanket finish in a race won by Sniper Kitten, one of the leading contenders in Friday’s seventh race.