ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SYMPATHETIC

FIRST RACE

SUNFEST has been running decent races on grass and she should handle the surface switch. Her younger half-sister, Timuquana, is a two-time winner on the main track and her trainer also has strong numbers with horses going from turf to dirt. MYSTIC MAGNOLIA was the runner-up behind next-out winner Moonlight Majic on a sloppy track two back and won’t mind being back on the main track following a solid effort on the lawn in her latest at the Fair Grounds. DIXIE PRINCESS just missed coming off a two-month layoff and is eligible to move forward coming back in a more reasonable time period.

SECOND RACE

MIZ MAYHEM has improved dramatically in her last two and could be gone if she gets the jump on ROSES IN THE SOUTH who outdueled her the last time they met. MIZ MAYHEM has never been this good, though. ROSES IN THE SOUTH upset the Melody of Colors going this distance two back and will appreciate being back on grass and also the shorter distance after coming up empty on the main track in her latest. REALLY PROUD is trending in the right direction and could pick up the pieces if the top two get carried away up front.

THIRD RACE

Not sure why PLAYERS LUCK has been away since he easily won a $25K n2L Dec. 15, but he can fire fresh and the past five years Ziadie, who is hot right now, has a 22 percent strike rate with horses coming back between 61-180 days. QUINIENTOS is the winner if he can run back to his race two back. He is a bit suspect after being vanned off in his last start, but this will be his first start for Williams who has decent numbers with new shooters. Adding to the puzzle is SQUADRON A, a Grade 3 winner who he may have bounced in his second start back from a long layoff. He could go either way.

FOURTH RACE

OURS DREAM FLY lost quite a few lengths when he got squeezed back at the start but he finished full of run in an encouraging debut. He could take a big step forward for Barboza who has solid numbers with second-time starters. TWO SEVENTY ONE came up empty coming off a layoff in his latest and should move forward in his second start back. He had a rough trip but showed he can handle grass the only time he ran over it. SOUTHERN SEA owns the best Beyer’s and could win this with the right kind of trip. He’s had 13 starts, though, and the top two should have more upside.

FIFTH RACE

BIG BUD has been working fast and his dam was a stakes winner as a 2-year-old. Adding to his appeal is that one of his two siblings won their juvenile debut. SOMBEYAY is by a decent debut sire and is the second foal out of a 2-year-old winner. And we all know his trainer can have a first-time starter ready to roll. CAJUN EMBERS and ITSABOUTTIMEGIRL, both trained by Michael Yates, are by a sire who is just getting started and one of his sons, Cajun Firecracker, won a MSW race here April 13. The exacta was rounded out by one of his daughters, Mardi Gras Girl. And, both are also trained by Yates.

SIXTH RACE

SYMPATHETIC and INSIDE TRIP look good winning $20K maiden claimers coming off layoffs and appear capable of winning this $12.5K n2L. The edge could go to SYMPATHETIC who earned the higher Beyer Speed Figure and will be making her first start for Rodriguez who since 2014 has a 36 percent strike rate with newly claimed horses. With just three starts INSIDE TRIP could have more upside, though. CHARMING KID should be rolling late and could get up in time to pick up a piece.

SEVENTH RACE

SOCIAL ROY couldn’t keep up to a couple fast ones in his latest - Blings Express was winning for the 22nd time and Harryhee earned a 91 Beyer when he was the runner-up in a $62,500 optional race in his next start. Roy edged MR. KISSES two back and once again should be in the mix right from the start. MR. KISSES was going for the hat trick when he lost by a neck to SOCIAL ROY and could win this with the right kind of trip. SMALL FORTUNE is better on turf, but he has a couple of wins on dirt going this distance and considering he showed a new dimension by rallying late in his latest the shape of the race could work for him.

EIGHTH RACE

VENDITA appears to be rounding into form and she was good enough to win four in a row here last year. BAREEQA can fire fresh and she won twice in three starts for De la Cerda when he had her here in 2016-17. Her last three on turf in New York were pretty solid, too. ADMIRAL’S WIN is on a roll and the runner-up in her latest win is a decent 4-year-old who has come close to winning stakes a couple of times. PURE MICHIGAN has been away for a long time but she may have tipped her hand with a sharp work April 22 and Thomas has solid numbers with horses coming back from lengthy layoffs.

NINTH RACE

YES I’LL GO drops into a conditional race for the first time since she romped in a statebred MSW race in her debut. She will find these a lot easier than the likes of Stormy Embrace, third in Yes I’ll Go’s last start, who earned a 93 Beyer for her win in an overnight handicap at Tampa Bay March 10. PRINCESS VICTORIA is coming off a decent effort going around two turns on grass and the last time she sprinted on dirt she won a $30K conditional claimer here. ENIGMATICA didn’t make an impact in her first try on grass but in her two previous starts she was a runner-up in back-to-back races at this level on the main track.

TENTH RACE

ARPINELLA has had plenty of chances, but he owns the best last-race Beyer, attracts Gaffalione, and he’s been right there in three of his last four starts. The shape of the race should also work for him. HARRY’S GONE GRAY had a rough trip last time and could make a big impact running on Lasix for the first time. WALTERJEEP ran like a horse that needed a race and he could take them a long way now that he’s had one. If he can clear early he could be gone in what appears to be a wide-open event.