Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
Justify doesn't draw a crowd
Justify was chased home by 19 horses in the Kentucky Derby on May 5 at Churchill Downs, but when he lines up for the Preakness Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico it appears as few as seven will try to stop him from sweeping the Triple Crown.
As of Monday morning, only seven – including a mere three from the Derby – were confirmed to enter the Preakness come Wednesday morning against Justify. There’s always the possibility someone else could jump in at the last second – especially from a barn with numerous 3-year-olds, such as Dale Romans’s – but, regardless, the field will be less than half the Derby’s.
If only eight run, that would mirror the Preakness field of 2015, when American Pharoah – like Justify trained by Bob Baffert – prevailed on a sloppy track, conditions that also could be in play this year. The eight runners in 2015 represented the smallest Preakness field since 2000. The last time there were fewer than eight runners in the Preakness was 1986, when Snow Chief, that year’s Derby favorite, defeated the Derby winner, Ferdinand, and five others.
Justify has won all four of his starts, and will be heavily favored to remain unbeaten and head to the Belmont Stakes on June 9 with a chance to become the second Triple Crown winner this decade. Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, has Justify as 2-5 on his prospective Preakness line, with Good Magic – the Derby runner-up – next at 5-2.
Keith Feustle, who makes the morning line at Pimlico, said he intends to list Justify as the 3-5 favorite when posts are drawn Wednesday evening, with Good Magic next at 5-2. Both Watchmaker and Feustle said no other horse will be below 10-1.
Feustle noted the similarities to his first Preakness line three years ago, when American
Pharoah was coming off a Derby victory at 2.90-1 and Firing Line was the Derby runner-up at 9-1.
“Those are the same prices Justify and Good Magic were in the Derby this year,” Feustle said.
Feustle made American Pharoah a 4-5 program favorite for the 2015 Preakness, and the colt won at 9-10. He said he has Justify a lower price “because
the overall depth behind the top two isn’t there this year.”
Good Magic comes off a terrific effort in the Derby. His trainer, Chad Brown, will try to win the Preakness for the second straight year, following Cloud Computing in 2017.
“The horse is training well and he seems to be galloping just as well as he was going into the Derby,” Brown said over the weekend as he outlined the reasons to come back in two weeks for the Preakness.
“He looks as well physically. His energy level is right where it was, in my opinion, based on what I could see. It’s too good an opportunity to pass up with a horse that I think has a real chance to win the race.”
Part of the reason to run Good Magic in the Preakness is because Brown does not intend to run him in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont. If Good Magic passed the Preakness, he would likely not race again until the end of July in a race such as the Jim Dandy at Saratoga or the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park.
Brown also feels that the two-week turnaround might be the time to try Justify again. Justify has made all four of his starts in 76 days. The Preakness will be his fifth race in 13 weeks.
“I have enormous respect for Justify,” Brown said. “He ran the best race, he was the best horse on Derby Day. Until somebody beats him, he’s the leader of this division for sure and a deserving Derby winner.
“That said, he’s had a good number of races in a fairly short amount of time. It might be worthwhile to test him again and see if he can do it again.”
Brown noted that Good Magic having three races in six weeks is a test for his colt, too.
Good Magic traveled by van to Pimlico on Monday from Belmont Park. Justify is scheduled to fly to Baltimore from Louisville on Wednesday.
Others expected to enter the Preakness are Bravazo, Diamond King, Lone Sailor, Quip, Sporting Chance, and Tenfold.
Wet weather is a near certainty, according to The Weather Channel, which forecast rain or thunderstorms in Baltimore every day from Wednesday through Saturday, with at least an 80 percent chance of precipitation all four days.