ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, BE THE CHANGE

FIRST RACE

COLEYVILLE missed the break before closing for second ahead of three next-out winners in his final ‘17 appearance Sept. 10. His readiness is in question off the long layoff, but this OS maiden special/$40K claimer came up light, and the attractive gray might be up to the task at hand. BOURBON EXTENSION has worked decently for his first start since a disappointing result at this class and distance Dec. 9. He’s worth a look off the trainer change with Contreras taking over. POOL BOY is bred to go long, and might wake up on the stretchout in his second trip postward.

SECOND RACE

WAVE DANCER blew a clear lead in deep stretch in her local bow 10 days ago in a six-furlong sprint. She drew nicely on the outside in this five-furlong dash, and figures to track the speedy WILD HONEY before making her move. The latter weakened to second after leading the way in each of her last two outings. Leading rider Hernandez is sticking with the well-bred daughter of Old Forester and stakes winner Mysterious Affair. SENTIMENTAL LADY is debuting with a speed pedigree, blinkers and Lasix, for a trainer who can have one ready.

THIRD RACE

BOYHOOD DREAM beat $30K maidens last time on the dirt at Keeneland, and could strike again in his first Tapeta excursion. The closer has ample speed to chase here, and should have a fitness edge on the opposition. With blinkers on, HANDSOME LIKE ME is stretching out to the distance of his frontrunning maiden score. He should be the dominant speed, but ROCK THE HOUSE might soften him up a little. ABSOLUTION was ninth behind fifth-place finisher and stablemate HANDSOME LIKE ME in the Dec. 9 Kingarvie Stakes, which was won by the promising Silent Sting. Note that the comebacker graduated around two turns in November.

FOURTH RACE

BE THE CHANGE had a productive fall campaign, which was capped by a two-race win streak. This barn’s layoff runners have been sharp, for the most part, and this 4yo could keep the roll going after tracking the speed in this $8K claimer. VALIANT FLAME merits serious consideration in his debut for McKnight, a high-percentage angle. He’s a 10-time winner on synthetics, so it’s wise to ignore his last two double-digit losses on the dirt at Oaklawn. PHIL IN THE BLANK is dropping to where his speed should be more effective than it was in his comeback. Use him underneath in vertical wagers, along with stretch-runner BLUTARSKY.

FIFTH RACE

MIDNIGHT BREW earned a 79 Beyer in three of her four starts last year after getting claimed for a bargain $10K in September, which included two victories. She’s an excellent fit in this $10K starter, and her trainer has solid stats with similar comebackers. SHOW SHAPE got away slowly before showing little when returning from the sidelines in a five-furlong dash dominated by a lone front-runner. She’s moving out to a more suitable distance in this six-furlong contest, with the leading rider back in the tack. DOLLY STORMY got the winter off after winning three consecutive lower claimers in the fall, and wouldn’t be much of a surprise. Toss DONNAS SWEET HEART in the super.

SIXTH RACE

EXECUTIVE SIGHT defeated NW2 OS allowance stock after awaiting room on the turf in his fivefurlong season opener. He resides in a hot barn, and can double up in this NW3 OS sprint traveling three-quarters, the distance over which he graduated with an 80 Beyer last September. NUPOGODI finished in the middle of a tough 14-horse field in a longer sprint at this level when coming off the shelf 10 days ago, a race he probably needed. SPLIT MY PANTS has worked okay for his return to action. He would seem to prefer the grass, but was able to graduate following a long layoff in his ‘17 debut on the Tapeta.

SEVENTH RACE

GOLDEN EXCHANGE faded to seventh in his comeback in a pretty good OS maiden special/$40K claimer, from which the third horse exited to romp at the same class (66 Beyer). He’s halving in value

to this much easier $20K tilt, the price at which he nearly got the job done Nov. 8. MARSELAN ran evenly in a stalking position to end up third in a longer sprint at this class following a layoff April 29. HOLYSNAPENEYEBALLS faced much tougher in the fall, and his trainer did well on Wednesday nights last year. Use the son of Artie Schiller on the bottom of all exotics, along with CEPELINAS.

EIGHTH RACE

SILENT OAKS was competitive while employing front-running tactics at 2. The daughter of leading Ontario sire Silent Name could make all the running in this five-furlong dash, in her first try for trainer Barb Minshall. GIMBALA rallied for second when coming off the bench in an identical spot on opening day, which was the fourth runner-up placing of her six-race career. HURRICANE EMILY lacked room on the turn before closing belatedly for fourth behind GIMBALA in her return. Firsttimer CAWAJA TIME is a half-sister to stakes winners Cawaja Beach, Who’s Big Daddy and Professor’s Ride.