ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, MISSBIGTIMES

FIRST RACE

MERTZ had good speed first time out and was game in the stretch despite proving to be no match for a 1/5 favorite from the Pletcher barn. She can benefit from having that race experience, as can ABYSSINIAN, who also flashed good early speed in her debut, which came after being heavily bet over this track, before proving to be no match for her stablemate Mae Never No; moves outside. PIONEEROF NEW YORK a well-connected first-time starter by Pioneer of the Nile; has a lot of turf on the dam-side of her pedigree, so might be one to watch for on that surface down the line. MA MEATLOAF tried to show speed in her debut as part of a heavily-favored entry with Disclude, but she was out-paced by MERTZ and chased into 3rd late; has to be better, which may come with more distance considering her pedigree.

SECOND RACE

SALTY SMILE has won both prior starts vs. claiming company easily and looks to be in a good spot should this race be moved to the main track. On turf, will try to speed up TIZ PRICELESS in what will be a tougher race for her following her easy win first-time turf vs. a weak field at Gulfstream; took a clear step forward with the surface switched while winning that race without having to get down to serious business. BLISSFUL BREEZE and REGAL DAME squared off at this level two weeks ago over this course and distance, and it was the former, who has clearly improved on turf, who was best in that matchup on the square.

THIRD RACE

WAY EARLY looked good in pair of starts as a 2yo, including open-company stakes try in his second start where he never could quite come clear in the stretch while riding the inside; good effort upon his return while gamely trying to close down a front-running winner, and he will add Lasix for his second start as a 3yo. MINSKY MOMENT has been defeated at odds of 5/1 or less in six of his seven career starts, including four straight as the favorite since just getting his nose down at the right time to break his maiden in an off-the-turfer last June; hard to have a lot of confidence in, but he handles either surface and becomes the horse to beat if we are off the turf. PHONE FUNKY MUNKY made a useful debut at Saratoga last summer behind an impressive winner, and he took a nice step forward in his second start while blowing out to a clear stretch lead and then holding off a talented rival in News Anchor late while leaving an acre of ground back to the rest of that field; makes first start back after being scratched by the vet at Aqueduct last month. SIGGIE ships up to face NY-breds for the first time after easily wiring maidens at Tampa in his debut for an underrated trainer; will find this field tougher, but he could be okay.

FOURTH RACE

TOO HOT TO EVEN SPEAK dropped to this level last time and couldn’t quite get to the in-form Holding Aces late while making a game run from off the pace; prefer him using that off-the-pace running style, and think this seven-furlong distance suits him more than that rival, whom he will face again in this spot. CARRADINE will win this race handily if able to somehow re-find the form he was in last year, but that has to be a big question for him after two starts back this year following a long layoff, both of them non-efforts vs. much better horses; being dumped by a shrewd trainer for this. HOLDING ACES has returned to his best form since being claimed by these connections and his tactical speed gives him something of an edge in this race; has raced beyond six furlongs only sparingly, but do think he is a bit better at that distance.

MY FIRST GAL was last seen in NY rallying into a fast pace to get 3rd at this level, and her only other turf start came in a short sprint at Saratoga where she raced on all through the stretch while having to angle out from behind horses; should be a fair price for an underrated trainer. GRAND BANKS has already had her chances, but she has run well at times and her first start back for her new trainer was a good effort for 2nd behind a well-meant and well-bred firster from Chad Brown’s barn. LADY ROZINA hasn’t had all that much to offer in her first two starts, which are separated by a layoff, but she gets the right class drop for this with an inside draw. FLIPPITY FLOP may not be able to run at all, but she was away poorly from the gate in her debut; has some pedigree as she drops in class, and she gets Lasix for her second start. SINGLE MISSION also getting the right class drop for her 3yo debut, but she didn’t do much running in her three starts last year, albeit against better fields.

SIXTH RACE

Would worry about a real wet track for FLATEXCEL considering his three starts in the slop at Fair Grounds, but liked his effort at this level when cut back to sprint in his NY debut last time, as he contested a solid pace all the way before just falling to longshot Quai Voltaire, who sat a perfect trip in that race. BEYOND HONOR posted lone win of his career last December in a race where he rode a strong rail behind a fast pace for the majority of that race, before moving clear and running down a leader who was tiring late; gets significant class relief on dirt for this after trying much better in his three main track starts following that maiden win. DARING DESTINY wired a filed in the mud to break his maiden three starts back before trying turf one more time to no avail; couldn’t hold on last time at this level, but he made a fast pace in that race and managed to hold a challenge in the stretch before weakening and falling to closers, while managing to hold on for 3rd over ASPHALT PAVING.

SEVENTH RACE

ROYAL ASSET back to turf off the claim following 6yo debut at Keeneland in which he got wired while, if nothing else, showing that he can still run; has raced sparingly on grass since posting lone win on this surface via a double DQ in his career debut back in 2015, but he is capable on turf. GRAND SKY has been solid on turf from the start, but he took his game to another level once claimed by Jason Servis last summer; last two races of 2017 weren’t up to the level of his two wins, but he was facing some much better horses in those races. MISSION COMMAND won his turf debut last October off a class drop, but he backed that race up pretty well in his next start at this level; back to turf for the first time since, but may have a better chance if this race moves to dirt and he stays in.

EIGHTH RACE

HOROSCOPE returned from an extended layoff over a tough distance in April at Aqueduct but he looked better than ever there in his first start for Rudy while going a good pace and keeping it up in the stretch en route to a new top figure; if you believe in the bounce you have to be worried about him here, but he is going to be very tough to beat here in backing that race up. EVALUATOR in tough here based on figures, but he has transitioned well to dirt and is clearly back to a more reasonable spot here after taking a shot in the Wood; will be running late. WICKED MACHO has distance questions to answer, but he has confirmed his preference for dirt since starting back this year, and he handled a wet track in his career debut; lone route try came in his second career start in the Easy Goer, where he laid down a solid pace in front of West Coast.

NINTH RACE

COFFEE CRUSH still looks like a work in progress for her excellent trainer, but she does appear to have some talent and not going to be too hard on her for her 3yo debut where she was the one to go after the talented Significant Form on the lead, and raced her gamely to the stretch before letting go; prefer the routing-types to the sprinters over this distance. BRATTATA has burned some money along the way, but not without some excuses and like her going this shorter distance after running well enough going a bit longer recently; game effort last time vs. a better field. Don’t care for the race that AFRICA, among others in this field, is exiting, and she had no excuse in that race, but not giving up on her yet as she arrived with decent form from France and didn’t run her race while getting very rank in traffic in the Miss Grillo; think this distance may suit her better. ELEVENSES has shown some ability on dirt and she does have some pedigree for turf being a More Than Ready out of a dam who won sprinting on grass; not an easy spot to make the switch.

TENTH RACE

Things clearly didn’t go well for MISS BIG TIMES following her career debut last summer here (she was entered and scratched at least once before the plug was pulled), but she ran a deceptively good race in that lone outing while going very greenly from the start, before making a nice wide run around horses on the turn and then just being allowed to finish on her own with the race out of reach in the stretch; have to worry about the long layoff, but she showed some talent in that first one. QUEEN OF EVERYTHING missed the break in her career debut late last year, then found her speed while contesting a fast pace in her first start back before just getting nailed late; has the advantage of a recent race to go along with her speed. Like the top one, THE GIANT’S VOW is just starting back from a layoff after encountering trouble but showing some interest in her lone start as a 2yo.