ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, UNCLE WOODROW

FIRST RACE

It’s a brain burner, for sure. FRASERO off since winter but that’ll be built into the price. Waive the claiming price first time back. Dropped in for $7.5K tag in final start last form cycle but otherwise faced higher-class foes than these. Has shown some pace in the past - an asset in field lacking speed. RARE EAGLE up and down but is the one I’d want if this is rained onto dirt. CRUISE MORE would be back on fairly short rest, and not sure he can improve much upon that DEL run.

SECOND RACE

TITANIUM LOVE based on morning line and look of race could start her at an unappealingly low price, but rate him a likely enough winner I’ll eat it. Already gelded and belated debut for 3yo but not in for tag and they all have flaws in this race. SIMPSON dropped in for $40K after pair of MSWs - neither awful - to start career. Showing $12K purchase price, which makes drop easier to take than with a horse like Mediterranean. SONIC BOOM E JET blinkers on for Claudio Gonzalez - which recently has meant little. Improved this year from last but is there much more there?

THIRD RACE

First-timer IM THE GAME has a gap in works that’s discouraging but otherwise has drilled encouragingly. Very interesting turf pedigree, and intrigued enough generally to take a look at a long price. 11-race maiden DAY OF RECKONING looks just as logical here as in those several previous races at similar class where he was beaten as the favorite. Main-track-only HIDDEN BAMBOO is far enough from a slam dunk on dirt that I put in third here rather than first.

FOURTH RACE

Don’t at all mind cut-back in distance and return to Laurel for UNCLE WOODROW, who looks more solid than a 6/1 shot at this class level. AWESOME BILL is a regression candidate with a poor draw but he’s positively raised in class following offthe-claim win, & not ruling out repeat. DOUBLE WHAMMY rates - but at 9/5 coming off a layoff on a negative class drop?

FIFTH RACE

JOKERS TOTHE RIGHT didn’t get much of a run in either of her last two starts, the first turf races of her career, but was competitive enough one could imagine a breakthrough with better luck. Also handles dirt if it comes to that. TIZADOOZI is a onetime-winning 6yo but runs well enough at times to make a little noise at a lot of price. Down in class off an improved performance. SATURDAY’S REIN’s deep-closing style surely is a hindrance in short sprint with a big field and a turn.

SIXTH RACE

POPLAR AVENUE is in for the claiming option but still considerably above claim price paid two starts back when he romped on the lead for a $16K tag. Hard to say how much slop helped there, but he does have speed to make lead from rail draw. Toss turf flop last time and barn’s turf-dirt numbers are off the charts. MEO DESPERADO has raced four times but hasn’t seen a claiming tag since she won her debut in February by five. Fought it out in pace battle a long way last time and held gamely, and could be in line for better trip. TO BLAVE has feel of a horse who speed figures are superior to his win chance.

Suspect AMAPOLA actually is a better horse on turf than dirt and she’s gotten only the one grass start so far in injury-interrupted career. She breaks so sharply the rail draw probably is more a help than a hindrance. Often overbet, she might be fair value this time. A GREAT TIME looks like a relatively worthy foe who will be running late and can benefit from a pace battle. ZORALLY showed talent from the start and ran her best race of three at this distance. Sire Wiseman’s Ferry also got turf legend Wise Dan and there’s grass on bottom of pedigree as well.

EIGHTH RACE

HIS ROYAL MAJESTY’s last start turf race is a red herring since 4yo has far more form on the main track. Claimed for $16K on KY circuit and encouragingly entered for new barn under starter conditions in a relatively soft spot. ZIG ZILLION can easily be forgiven the last-out two-turn fade facing better than these. Is being risked here for $25K, and only other tag was twice that. SOUTHERN WILD has one dirt race in the middle of a bunch of turf races that hints he could contend, but not thrilled with the claim-and-drop move.

NINTH RACE

VICTORY RALLY just didn’t seem to stay the two turns at PIM last out and cutting back to a mile should really help. Lots of opt claimers in form but she’s never been in for a tag and still has upside in fourth start of 4yo season. Second choice on morning line but deserves to be favored. MAGICAL is the 2-1 morning-line favorite but has form less solid, from this point of view, than VR’s. She’s yet to take back and finish much or run fast for the class level. FOLLOW THE PETALS has 20 starts and just ran one of the fastest races of her career but the barn tends to get a lot of consistent run out of horses of this ilk.

TENTH RACE

THRICE was competitive last out returning to turf in a higher-class race than this, worked back since, and could run a little better - which might be just enough. TIZ MADNESS seems limited on turf but capable of winning this should the race be rained onto the main. Late-running FED UP FIRED UP has little choice but to drop back to the tail from this wide post, and there’s probably insufficient speed for her to win.