ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, POINT TO REMEMBER FIRST RACE

TIED UP likely faced a better field than this one off the claim at Keeneland in April and dominated them on the front end to win for the third time from her last four dirt starts; slight concern that she hasn’t been seen in over 100 days since, but she’s tough if ready in this spot for her highpercentage trainer. STATUS ASTHMATICUS also returning from an April layoff, where she was last seen rating in a four-wide trip in a race that was run at an even pace; thought her career debut was a deceptively good effort while part of a fast and competitive pace, and she was a clear-cut winner two back. PROPORTIONALITY hasn’t offered much in her two starts since claimed by a sharp trainer, though she did catch a wet track at Belmont last time; has run some races in the past that would give her a chance here, and she has speed.

SECOND RACE

CHOCOLATE KISSES didn’t appear to be looking for the lead in sprint debut that was rained off the turf, but she wound up contesting the pace with the eventual winner in that spot, before settling for second-best; figures to benefit from this surface switch as a half to the multiple graded stakeswinner turf horse Synchrony, and having the kind of easy speed she showed first time out can only benefit her. GHOSTLY BEAUTY doesn’t have much pedigree to speak of, but she is bred grass for a trainer who is dangerous with his 2yo first time starters; been training right along up here, including four breezes over turf. SIPPICAN HARBOR by a good turf sire in Orb, and she is a half-sister to three turf winners from this dam; good post on the inside for a trainer who quietly had a nice meet downstate.

THIRD RACE

LA MONEDA has won four of her five turf starts since making a belated career debut up here last summer, and she has been particularly impressive in the last two, including in-hand crushing of allowance rivals most recently in a final time that came back slightly faster than stakes horses about an hour later; tough if holding her form in this spot. COMPLICIT managed only a pair of starts as a 3yo but she has come back an improved horse so far this year to go 2 for 2, and last was her best yet when rolling home from last into a slow pace; steps up but a contender if she can improve again. PONTI SCHEME managed to grind out a win off a long layoff at Gulfstream in May in a race that didn’t feature a lot of closing, and she also looked pretty good winner her debut early last year from off the pace; this is going to be a lot tougher but she has looked okay so far.

FOURTH RACE

ADULATION never really panned out after a somewhat promising start but he faced some pretty tough competition along the way, and he showed that he can still run a little while posting relatively easy win three starts back; had little chance in that paceless race two back, but this is the time to make the drop. BENEFACTOR stepped out of the restricted claiming ranks off the claim last time and promptly had his head handed to him by some much better horses; back down with speed as an apparent new gelding and he is the horse to beat, though he has put his stamina issues on display several times over, including in that good effort when returned to dirt three back where he had control down inside the final furlong before jumping to his wrong lead and giving it up. ESPRESSO CALIENTE has faced only 3yos to date, and mostly on turf, but his two dirt races are both pretty good; like him cutting back as he tries the main track again for a trainer who excels with the turfto-dirt switch (Gullo, turf to dirt, Saratoga, past five years: 4 for 10, 40%, $3.95 ROI, including two wins last year).